Yesterday, I proposed that in the process of the downturn of the real estate market, the attributes of real estate investment will weaken or disappear, and the characteristics of consumer goods of real estate will be more obvious. With the passage of time, the land value of ordinary houses, as well as the above-ground structures and decorations, are in the process of declining in value. (Article link: In the process of market downturn, it is very important to establish the ideological awareness that real estate is a consumer product)
Today, we want to discuss with you what policies hinder the current development of the real estate market under the premise that real estate investment attributes weaken or disappear and real estate is mainly used as a consumer product, making real estate investment and sales decline accelerated.
From the perspective of investment of real estate enterprises, the high-standard construction implementation plan (assembly rate) and the policy of limiting the maximum price in the stage of land acquisition have formed certain obstacles to the active acquisition of land by real estate enterprises. In the development stage, policies such as the supervision of pre-sale funds for commercial housing, the minimum price reduction limit, VAT prepayment, income tax prepayment, and land income tax prepayment have brought greater pressure to housing enterprises to raise funds.
At present, although the centralized land supply has been substantially canceled, most of the land supply conditions and registration conditions formed in the past centralized land supply process have been canceled, but a small number of measures have been retained. Prefabricated building rate requirements is one of them, compared with the traditional construction process, the cost of prefabricated building per square meter will increase by 200-300 yuan / ㎡, in the current market downturn, sales price pressure under the background, improve the difficulty of the construction process, in fact, for developers, the pressure is still relatively large. On the other hand, at present, except for the abolition of the maximum selling price limit for some plots, most of the land plots still have a maximum selling price limit, although the current market background, the price increase space does not actually exist, but it restricts the diversified design of project products, and a small number of high-end product matching restrictions, which limits the profit margin of the project. These two land supply conditions, one increases rigid costs and the other restricts the price imagination space, which will actually limit the motivation of housing enterprises to acquire land to a certain extent, raise the threshold for land acquisition, and reduce the number of housing enterprises participating in the auction.
The supervision measures for pre-sale funds of commercial housing are policies established to deal with the misappropriation of funds by housing enterprises to ensure the development, construction and delivery of projects, which is understandable. At present, local governments are only targeting housing enterprises with better credit, and some cash can be replaced with guarantee letters to reduce the pressure on development funds, but on the whole, the policy of pre-sale fund supervision has become tighter.
Sales VAT, enterprise income tax, land value-added tax prepayment, in fact, has not met the current market situation, the premise of enterprise tax payment is project profit, in the real estate market upward stage, in order to avoid project carryover profits, short-term payment of a large amount of tax, various places require tax prepayment, can make the annual tax relatively smooth, and finally more refund less supplement to implement remittance. However, in the current overall downward stage of real estate, most of the real estate project profits are actually in a loss state, in this case, it is tantamount to making things worse by requiring prepayment of taxes, and when the project finally loses, the uncertainty of requesting government tax refunds is greater. Therefore, it is suggested that the prepayment policy of various taxes should be suspended during the overall downturn of the real estate market.
The removal of the 15% reduction in house prices is essentially a condition set by local governments to maintain the bottom line of prepayment of taxes in the current period and ensure the stability of the land market. However, it is also easy to lead to the prolongation of the project cycle of housing enterprises, the expansion of losses and other risks, it is recommended that housing enterprises should adjust their own prices, and return the market to the original.
From the perspective of home buyers, the current four aspects of purchase restrictions, loan restrictions, sales restrictions and loan interest rate (differentiated discrimination) policies have a negative impact on the sales of commercial housing and should be adjusted.
The purchase restriction of commercial housing is mainly divided into two parts, one is the purchase qualification restriction, and at present, it is still necessary to meet a certain number of years with local household registration, or individual tax, social security, etc. to be eligible to purchase, the shortest one month, the longest five years. Second, the purchase of the number of units is limited, most cities allow the purchase of a second house, prohibit or restrict the purchase of a third house, the current some cities to pension or children as a precondition, increased a set of purchase qualifications, but can not include the entire market housing demand. In fact, in the context of the weakening and disappearance of real estate investment attributes, the vast majority of those who want to buy a house are customers with real needs, and the policy must not think of all the needs of the market, and nationwide, including Beijing, Shanghai and other megacities, should no longer do any form of purchase restriction policy.
Loan restriction policy, most cities currently implement differentiated and discriminatory down payment requirements for the two-house policy, increase interest rates and other policies, and directly prohibit loans for three-house policies. These loan policies based on cracking down on investment and speculation, in the context of the current market downturn, investors leaving the market, and market customers mainly living in the market, improvement, replacement and other needs, obviously hurt the basic divorce of most home buyers. The increase in the down payment and the increase in interest rates for second homes reflect whether we encourage customers to improve, replace, or restrict customers from improving and replace, and it is clear that the current policy is completely contrary to market expectations. If we currently encourage customers to improve and replace, we should apply the same down payment requirements and preferential interest rates to all customers in the market, whether they are first or second homes, rather than restrictive and punitive down payment conditions and loan rates. On the one hand, we encourage the liquidity of the market and encourage the mobility of talents, and there may inevitably be the flow of talents between different regions, the purchase of different residences at different ages, and the identification of three or more sets of housing purchase records or loan records is a stupid policy and should not continue to exist.
The restricted sale policy refers to the policy of restricting the sale conditions of the newly built commercial houses purchased for 2-5 years in order to limit the short-term cash-out and continuous purchase speculation of speculators during the market period. Obviously, the policy is also not in line with the current market characteristics, first, customers who are eager to sell without meeting the sales limit are certainly not in order to buy a house again for speculation, it is very likely that after buying at a high point, the solvency deteriorates, and it is necessary to sell to realize the loan to repay the loan, at this time, it is very cruel for individuals to do restrictions again. Second, there is a situation where the property needs to be disposed of in the event of a family change within 2-5 years. Therefore, there is no need for the sales restriction policy to exist anymore and should be lifted.
In summary, in the context of the downturn of the real estate market, the government should further adopt a series of policies to prevent the negative impact of the rapid decline in real estate investment and sales, including abolishing the rigid requirement for prefabricated building rates, changing to enterprises independently determining prefabricated building rates according to demand, canceling the maximum selling price limit, and canceling the maximum decline limit; Suspend the implementation of various tax prepayment policies until the market improves significantly; Before the market has significantly improved, the purchase restrictions and loan restrictions will be completely abolished, and the undifferentiated loan policy will be implemented; Removal of the limited sales period, etc.