【Reporter's observation】After the "incense meeting" ended, it is still a matter of concern when high-level contacts between the Chinese and US armed forces will resume
2023-06-05 05:52
Source: Global Times-Global Network
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The 20th Shangri-La Dialogue (hereinafter referred to as the "Shangri-La Dialogue") held in Singapore has attracted great attention. Despite the 12-hour time difference between Beijing and Washington, the defense ministers of the two countries reached a "consensus" in their speeches at the conference: the two major powers need to strengthen exchanges and cooperation, but China stressed that the premise of communication is mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation. Experts told the Global Times reporter that when high-level contacts between the Chinese and US militaries resume, the ball is on the side of the US side, and it depends on when the US side can create a suitable political atmosphere.
China's Defense Minister Promotes Global Security Initiative
This year's "incense party" was held from June 2 to 4, from the opening dinner on the 2nd to the 4th, every day there were heavyweight guests spoke, the organizer of the opening dinner invited Australian Prime Minister Albanese, on the 3rd US Defense Secretary Austin made a speech, the protagonist on the 4th was Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu, the organizer of the "incense meeting" and the director of the British Institute for International Strategic Studies (IISS) Chipman specially introduced when presiding, this is Minister Li's first time to participate in the "incense meeting" after taking office.
On the morning of the 4th, Li Shangfu delivered a speech with the theme of "China's New Security Initiative." Li Shangfu first focused on the new security path of "dialogue without confrontation, partnership rather than alliance, and win-win rather than zero-sum", saying that only by respecting each other and treating each other as equals can we live in harmony. Resolutely oppose imposing one's will on others, putting one's own interests above others, and basing one's own security on the insecurity of others.
Like last year's speech by the Chinese defense minister at the "incense meeting," this year Li Shangfu also elaborated on Taiwan, the South China Sea issue, and Sino-US relations.
Zhou Bo, former director of the Center for Security Cooperation at the Office of International Military Cooperation of the Ministry of National Defense of China, attended the "incense meeting" for the first time this year as a researcher at the Center for Strategic and Security Studies at Tsinghua University.
"For the appearance of the new minister, everyone will pay attention to his personal style, but pay more attention to what he expounds and the Chinese foreign policy behind it." Hu Yishan, chief consultant of the Malaysian Pacific Research Center, said in an interview with the Global Times in Singapore on the 4th, "His overall expression is very peaceful and will make the audience more acceptable." For example, from time to time, there will be expressions such as 'some countries', 'countries outside the region', and 'external forces', and we all understand that the United States is referring to, which does not affect the theme, and can also be heard. ”
In addition, Hu Yishan believes that the concept of the "Global Security Initiative" proposed by China is more practical, and it also indicates that it will take a path of partnership and non-alignment, "The first half of what US Defense Secretary Austin said yesterday showed that the United States and South Korea, Japan and other countries established 'Alliance I', 'Alliance 2' and 'Alliance III'." Then 'Alliance One' and 'Alliance Three' can form a larger alliance."
In addition, Timor-Leste President Ramos-Horta said in his speech at the sixth plenary session of the "Incense Meeting", "China's influence is global, it is now a world power, and its interests, wealth, people's well-being and security are intertwined with all countries in the world." I don't think China will kill chickens for eggs. ”
In the long corridor before entering the venue, a photo wall produced by IISS attracted the attention of the Global Times reporter, the photo wall displays representative pictures of the previous "incense meetings" from 2002 to 2022, including two Chinese defense ministers, I believe that next year's photo wall will appear Li Shangfu's photo, which also shows that the Chinese defense minister has become a frequent visitor to the "incense meeting". If in the past, the Chinese delegation wanted to let the world know about China, now it hopes that the world can understand China and accept China's ideas, and has achieved some results.
The United States muddied a pool of water and did not show the appearance of a big country
The agenda of the "incense meeting" was very strategic, with the speech of the US defense secretary arranged on the first day of the meeting, and the speech of the Chinese defense minister on the second day of the meeting, so as not to lose the audience on the second day of the meeting, and the speech scenes of the two heavyweights were indeed very hot. This year, the Pentagon promoted the "incense meeting" and created hot topics. As early as early May, Bloomberg quoted people familiar with the matter to break the news that the US military is seeking to let the US and Chinese defense ministers meet during the "incense meeting", and then the British "Financial Times" quoted sources on the 11th to report that the two defense ministers are unlikely to meet. Since then, the United States has been taking the initiative to release information around the "meeting between the two defense ministers in Singapore", and until the 3rd, Austin was still using the topic in his speech at the "incense meeting" conference: "China is deeply concerned about the establishment of a better crisis management mechanism between the two militaries."
Under the "public opinion" created by the United States, whether or not the Chinese and US defense ministers meet or not has become a hot topic at this "incense meeting." In an interview with the Global Times, he said, "On the opening day of the 'incense meeting', I was interviewed by more than a dozen foreign media, all of which involved the topic of the Sino-US defense ministers' meeting, of course, these media knew in advance from the statements of both sides that it was impossible to sit down and talk, and they continued to ask whether the two sides would arrange private communication and whether the working layers of the two sides would have contact." ”
Some observers believe that this approach by the United States is not only shaping a public opinion situation, showing that the United States wants to communicate with China but China refuses, but also deliberately creates pressure for China to force China to make concessions.
But it turns out that China has not been influenced or overreacted by the US side, showing "what a big country should be". Li Shangfu said in his speech at the conference that China believes that big countries should look like big countries, should not provoke camp confrontation for temporary selfishness, should take into account the overall situation, resolve differences through exchanges and cooperation, and respond to the expectations of all countries. He stressed, "China has always sought to establish a new type of major-country relationship with the United States, but this requires the United States to show sincerity, match words with deeds, meet China halfway with practical actions, and promote the decline and stabilization of relations between the two countries and two militaries." ”
Zhou Bo held that Li Shangfu did not directly name the United States in his speech this time, and he also showed an attitude of willingness to communicate with the United States when talking about Sino-US relations, which of course has a precondition: that is, mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation. Zhou Bo said that this also shows that the US side has not created the basic political conditions for high-level exchanges between the two sides, and also ignored China's basic requirements on core interests and major security concerns.
A number of experts told the Global Times reporter that at present, China is increasingly unwilling to "meet for the sake of meeting", and the two sides have made some polite statements, such a meeting has no meaning in solving the current problems faced by the Chinese and US militaries.
When the Chinese and US defense ministers meet, the ball is on the side of the US side
At a deeper level, the key to the fact that the Sino-US defense ministers did not become a hot spot at the "incense meeting" is that the significance of Sino-US relations has long gone beyond bilateral and global influence, Li Shangfu said, "The international community generally hopes for the healthy and stable development of Sino-US relations, and is worried about conflict and confrontation." It is undeniable that if there is a fierce conflict and confrontation between China and the United States, it will be an unbearable pain for the world. ”
Hu Yishan said, "The US defense secretary also has similar views, so everyone agrees on this point." ”
Zhou Bo believes that "as the world's two military powers, the outside world, especially Southeast Asian countries, regard whether the two militaries dialogue and communication are a weather vane, if the two sides can still sit down and talk and find a solution to the problem, countries will feel more at ease, if the communication and dialogue between the two countries are stagnant, the atmosphere is tense, and the neighboring countries will become very tense." ”
Whether it is Australian Prime Minister Albanese at the opening dinner expressing support for the Biden administration to establish a reliable and open communication channel with China, or Singapore's Ministry of Defense Wong Eng Hen saying that it is more important to maintain communication between adversaries, because when they are involved in a dispute, they must be able to pick up the phone to discuss how to cool the situation, which shows that all parties attach great importance to how the relationship between the two militaries develops.
Hu Yishan believes that the subtext of Southeast Asian countries' so-called not choosing a side is to hope that the two major powers of China and the United States will not quarrel, let alone fight, so as to avoid countries being forced to make choices. A positive signal he was concerned about was that Li Shangfu stressed in his speech that the communication between the Chinese and US militaries has not been interrupted, "The signal sent by the meeting between the defense ministers of the two countries is naturally stronger, but the real contact on technical business is at the working level, which has stronger practical significance." ”
According to Singapore's Lianhe Zaobao, Singapore's Defense Minister Wong Eng Hen revealed that when the Chinese and US defense ministers talked to him separately, they expressed the hope that the original dialogue mechanism could be restored, but when to restore it and how it can be effectively carried out must be decided by them.
"I think sooner or later it will happen, although the current stalemate between the two sides is at a standoff, and in a few months, there will be some deadlock." Hu Yishan said. Another reason for his view is that diplomatic exchanges between China and the United States are gradually resuming, and China has recently invited American entrepreneurs to visit China, "it will definitely ease, it's just a matter of time." ”
Qian Feng, a researcher at the National Institute for Strategic Studies of Tsinghua University, told the Global Times reporter on the 4th that the current Sino-US diplomatic and economic and trade contacts have begun, and Sino-US tensions are stabilizing, but when the high-level contacts between the Chinese and US militaries resume, the ball is on the side of the United States, and it will be seen when the United States will create a suitable political atmosphere for high-level contacts.