Why does Ren Zeping dare to do the "bald" business?
"Internet celebrity economist" Ren Zeping has made new moves.
This time, he did not serve as the chief economist of any company, nor did he sell courses on live broadcasts or organize entrepreneurs to study abroad, but more bluntly "brought goods" to a certain hair growth product, which was ridiculed by netizens as "so bald".
Although this is not the most surprising compared to some of the out-of-the-loop rhetoric and style in the past, the contrast between the hair growth products and the identity of economists has attracted considerable attention.
What is the origin of this product that allows Ren Zeping to "put down his body" and bring goods? What kind of markets and opportunities are behind it?
01. "I never care what others say about me"
On his account with 4.731 million Weibo followers, Ren still labels himself "economist," but his title goes far beyond that.
For example, he is a postdoctoral fellow at the School of Economics and Management of Tsinghua University, a researcher at the Economic Research Institute of Chinese Minmin University, a doctor of economics from Chinese Minmin University, a managing director and chief macro analyst of Guotai Junan Securities Research Institute, a provincial review expert of the National High-tech Zone of the Ministry of Science and Technology, a deputy director of the Research Office of the Macroeconomic Research Department of the National Research Center, and the chief economist of Evergrande Group.
Behind a series of titles, what is even more out of the circle are Ren Zeping's many views, such as he once proposed that "5,000 points is not a dream" when he was 2,000 points in A-shares, as well as "real estate looks at population in the long run, land in the medium term, finance in the short term", "new cycle", "new infrastructure", "let go of three children" and so on. He has also published books related to macroeconomics or real estate industry, such as "Global Real Estate", "Global Trade Frictions and the Rise and Fall of Great Powers", "New Cycle: Macroeconomic Theory and Practice", "Real Estate Cycle" and so on.
Such a well-known and well-written economist has always been controversial, and the biggest controversy is his high frequency of out-of-the-loop speech.
For example, in January 2022, Ren Zeping's team expressed its views on the decline of the domestic newborn population, saying that "don't expect the post-90s and post-00s, we must seize the window that 75-85 years can still give birth, and suggest that the central bank print 2 trillion yuan, establish a birth fund as soon as possible, and give birth to 50 million more children in 10 years."
After speaking boldly, Ren Zeping's Weibo and WeChat public accounts were banned for two weeks.
For example, in mid-May 2023, Ren Zeping just proposed in a column that China should completely ban the sale of fuel vehicles within 5 years and instead develop new energy vehicles, and relevant remarks have also been questioned and refuted by netizens.
▲ (Ren Zeping. Source/Visual China)
On Weibo, the tweet featured comments with high likes, including "Let's say a few words, we all know you're high-level," "your anti-intellectual remarks are a laughing stock," and "Good advice, don't suggest it next time."
During the Spring Festival in 2023, Ren Zeping and another social commentator Sima Nan "tore each other" on Weibo, attracting a wave of attention. Although both sides deleted some of their radical remarks after the uproar, Ren's performance was considered by many to be undignified.
In addition to the endless out-of-the-loop remarks, unlike most people's impressions of economists, Ren Zeping also seems to have more monetization models.
Among them, what made Ren Zeping famous was that in 2017, Evergrande Group offered an annual salary of 15 million yuan to make him the company's chief economist (vice president level), and Ren Zeping once became the "most expensive" economist in China.
But in March 2021, Ren Zeping left Evergrande, and later publicly said that he had proposed improvements to Evergrande's situation, but they were not adopted, and also stressed on social platforms that "spreading rumors that I caused the company to be 2 trillion yuan in debt is either stupid or bad".
After that, Ren Zeping began to sell classes live - in April 2022, he changed his title from "Specially invited chief economist of Soochow Securities" to "famous economist, champion analyst of China's securities analysis Grand Slam, and practical economist" in the live broadcast of WeChat Channels, and began to vigorously promote his financial courses and VIP membership and other knowledge paid products.
At that time, it was reported that as of the data of the day after the live broadcast, the sales of Ren Zeping's selling class were about hundreds of thousands of yuan. But a year has passed, and the latest window content shows that the sales of many courses are not satisfactory, among which the highest sales is the "Zeping Macro Complete Works" priced at 2,980 yuan, with 61 copies sold, corresponding to a total sales of about 180,000 yuan.
In addition, Ren Zeping also participates in the study tour program for high-net-worth people - according to its Weibo publicity, he has successively gone to Huawei, New Hope and other enterprises, and in addition to self-care transportation and accommodation fees, a single study tour needs to pay 15,000 yuan, and the membership fee to join the VIP member business school is 48,000 yuan. The membership fee for joining the Private Board Business School is $120,000. According to a rough estimate of the number of people on site, a study tour may earn hundreds of thousands to millions of yuan.
Whether it is controversial remarks or monetization models, it seems that Ren Zeping does not care.
He once said in a media interview, "We have not made a directional mistake and recommended the most important opportunities in each era to investors." Of course, in the market because of your clear views, it is inevitable that there will be criticism, you can't get everything, I think criticism is normal, personally, I never care what others say about me."
02. "Own" business that has been brewing for a long time
Compared with the previous situation that has attracted attention, the hair growth products that Ren Zeping brought this time are still quite surprising because of the great contrast with the identity of economists. But if you look closely at the content recently posted on his personal public platform, you will find that there is already a foreshadowing.
Since February 5, 2023, Ren Zeping has mentioned "hair" on a total of 15 Weibo, many of which are related to his experience of using hair growth liquid products, such as lamenting "hair growth is gratifying" and "believe in science" from time to time, and many are votes related to hair growth liquid, such as "Do you have hair growth needs?" ”
During that time, there were always netizens in the comment area who asked Ren Zeping what products he was using, which can be said to have whetted his appetite. Now the mystery has finally been revealed - Ren Zeping wants to start his own business and sell hair growth products.
On May 29, after Ren Zeping expressed his fitness feelings as usual, he released a clear trailer - "Rensheng Zefa, focusing on scalp hair health management, the whole network will be on sale on June 8, and the soil can be good for good seedlings".
However, the city's inquiry found that Ren Zeping could no longer see this tweet on his current Weibo account.
After attracting a lot of attention, Ren Zeping posted two Weibo posts on May 30 to explain the reason why he brought hair growth products - "because it does have an effect, it can help many people, mindfulness", and the two tweets were released with Xiaomi MIX Fold 2 and HUAWEI Mate 40 Pro.
In the comment area at the bottom, the most praised comment is "Doing business is doing business, don't say it so high-sounding". Some netizens think that "if you do it, you don't need to explain, let the market give the answer".
At present, the Taobao store of "Rensheng Zefa" has put on the shelves a scalp conditioning set with a price of 398 yuan. The city consulted as a consumer, and the customer service said, "It was recommended by Teacher Ren, and the delivery will be arranged after June 8 after the order." ”
Economists are also working quite hard to bring goods, and screenshots of media breaking the news show that Ren Zeping was almost kicked out of the group chat in a WeChat group despite the second warning of others, "forcibly sending advertisements with goods".
Interestingly, the threshold for wanting to represent this product is still quite high, and the relevant staff of Ren Zeping's team revealed to the media that "Rensheng Zefa" has opened the agency mode, and Ren Zeping's macro private board and business school members are preferred. The application requirements must be entrepreneurs in various industries, middle and senior managers of enterprises.
So, what is the origin of this hair growth product that allows Ren Zeping to work so hard to bring goods and not hesitate to use his contacts accumulated for many years to help sell?
Tianyan investigation shows that the three companies associated with "Rensheng Zefa" were established in April and May 2023, namely Beijing Rensheng Zefa Biotechnology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Beijing Rensheng Zefa"), Suzhou Rensheng Zefa Biotechnology Partnership (Limited Partnership) (hereinafter referred to as "Suzhou Rensheng Zefa Partnership") and Suzhou Rensheng Zefa Biotechnology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Suzhou Rensheng Zefa").
▲ (Source/Tianyan Check)
Among them, Ren Zeping is the ultimate beneficiary of 99% of Beijing Rensheng Zefa, the executive partner of Suzhou Rensheng Zefa Partnership holding 99%, and one of the shareholders of Suzhou Rensheng Zefa, Ren Xiaoli is the legal representative of Beijing Rensheng Zefa, according to previous media reports, Ren Xiaoli is Ren Zeping's sister.
In addition, Suzhou Rensheng Zefa also has a shareholder named Beijing Funakang Biotechnology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Beijing Funakang"), and inquiring the filing information of the Food and Drug Administration shows that the three products under the "Rensheng Zefa" brand are all registered by Beijing Funakang.
The company, called Beijing Funakang, the homepage of the official website proudly shows that "holding hands with the Institute of Chemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences" and "can be marked with the technical support name of 'Institute of Chemistry of the Chinese Academy of Sciences'", and Ren Zeping did emphasize the technical achievements and technical support of the Chinese Academy of Sciences many times when promoting the "Rensheng Zefa" product.
▲(Source/Visual China)
Recently, some media reported that relevant personnel of Funakang said that the company provided one-stop services in hair growth, testing, production and processing, and logistics for "Rensheng Zefa", but when the city identified itself and called further for consultation, the relevant personnel said that "not the media department" and did not give a positive response.
In short, Beijing Funakang is most likely the supplier behind the "Rensheng Zefa" product, Ren Zeping, as the main shareholder and person in charge, has established a special company and brand in his own name for external sales, selling more and selling less has a direct interest relationship with it, and it is not surprising that sales are harder.
In addition to focusing on the hair growth product project itself, Ren Zeping also "organically combined" the hair growth project and the study tour project - in the latest Shaoxing study tour, Ren Zeping gave an investment course on hair growth agents to executives and entrepreneurs participating in the study tour, and invited the core technical scientist team of the Chinese Academy of Sciences to promote the "Rensheng Zefa" product.
Combined with the high threshold of the above agent of the product, this seminar is likely to also place part of Ren Zeping's expectations for recruiting product agents.
03. Tens of billions of "germination" market
As a fairly active "Internet celebrity economist" on the Internet, Ren Zeping's hair-growing track is actually not to be underestimated.
According to the survey data of the National Health Commission in 2019, the number of hair loss in mainland China exceeds 250 million, with an average of 1 in 6 people losing hair, of which about 163 million are men, accounting for 65%. Overall, the rate of hair loss before the age of 30 is as high as 84%, a full 20 years earlier than the age of hair loss in the previous generation.
The resulting wig market, hair transplant market and hair growth market will reach more than 10 billion yuan in 2021, and have maintained rapid growth in recent years, and consumers are showing a trend of youth and diversification.
According to data from the Prospective Industry Research Institute, in the domestic hair growth agent product market in 2021, the first place is Zhang Guang 101, followed by Rogaine Luojian, Jing Xiu Tang, Mandi and Ante Dafeixin and other hair growth brands. From the perspective of categories, it is mainly divided into several categories: daily maintenance, oral medicine, and topical medicine.
Among them, the financial report of 3SBio, a Hong Kong listed company with public data, shows that in the market of topical hair growth drug minoxidil tincture, Mandi (minoxidil tincture) of the company occupies 71.7% of the market share, and its sales in 2022 will increase by 48.1% year-on-year to 891 million yuan, while products in the field of hair loss dominated by Mandi will contribute 13.2% of the revenue to 3SBio in 2022.
In contrast, hair transplantation has become an increasingly popular way to increase hair volume more efficiently in recent years.
Yonghe Medical, a Hong Kong-listed company whose industrial chain covers hair transplant treatment, medical maintenance and routine maintenance, had an income of 2.168 billion yuan in 2021 and a gross profit margin of 73%.
People who have not been exposed to hair transplantation may marvel at the way the transplant industry charges according to the number of follicle units. Specifically, each hair follicle can grow 1-4 hairs, and only one hair at the edge of the hairline, and more inward, and each follicle unit charges tens of dollars. On the whole, if the hair transplant area is small, the total price is thousands of yuan, and if the area is large, the price may reach tens of thousands of yuan.
So, what kind of existence does Ren Zeping's "Rensheng Zefa" hair growth product belong to among many products with similar effects?
Although it is endorsed by an authoritative institution, an inquiry into the FDA filing will find that the three products under "Rensheng Zefa" - scalp conditioning essence oil, scalp conditioning essence and scalp conditioning shampoo, are only "makeup number" recorded, and the efficacy column only moisturizes (shampoo also includes cleansing effect).
In contrast, the well-known "Zhang Guang 101 Hair Conditioner" and "Bawang Hair Growing Liquid" have national makeup special character record numbers, and the product categories on record are "hair growth category"; The topical drug "mandiminoxidil tincture" has a batch number of Sinopharm, and the product category belongs to "chemicals".
In fact, the Hebei Provincial Food and Drug Administration has issued a document for consumers to identify the difference between makeup size, special brand size, elimination number and mechanical brand size products, of which only the "makeup number" logo of the product, which means that it does not need to pass the registration and approval of the State Food and Drug Administration, only need to go to the drug regulatory department for the record, and the function is more limited, only involves cleaning, protection, beautification and modification, the function of the special brand includes hair development and so on. In terms of applicable groups, strictly speaking, "makeup size" is only suitable for healthy people, and "special size" can be applied to special people.
In short, the "Rensheng Zefa" that Ren Zeping brought with the goods is not high in terms of obtaining certificates from official institutions. And if in accordance with regulatory requirements, cosmetics cannot use medical terms to promote medical effects.
Returning to the logic of Ren Zeping's hair growth products, in addition to his public statement of "because the effect is really good", there may also be commercial considerations.
Taking the financial data of Yonghe Medical in 2021 as an example, although the annual revenue was 2.168 billion yuan and the gross profit margin was 73%, the sales expenses alone spent 1.073 billion yuan, accounting for nearly half of the total revenue, and the final net profit was only 120 million yuan.
In this way, whether the hair transplant industry can make money is not based on cost inputs such as research and development and raw materials, but on the ability to control marketing expenditures.
From this point of view, Ren Zeping's high popularity and considerable traffic or the important guarantee of new product marketing can save the company a lot of promotion costs, so that the "Rensheng Zefa" brand has more profit space.
(Author |.) Lin Xiawei, editor | Liu Xiaoying)