Musk is a 5G signal and Huang Jensen is a 6G signal

The same is coming to China, if Cook represents 4G signals and Musk is 5G signals, then Huang Jenxun may be 6G signals.

Text | She Zongming

Let me throw out the judgment first: the same is coming to China, if Cook represents a 4G signal and Musk is a 5G signal, then Huang Jenxun may be a 6G signal.

Cook came to China in late March, followed by India, and his trip to China was more symbolic than practical, and it was difficult to change the basic trend of Apple's supply chain relocation.

Musk visited China at the end of May and returned to the United States on June 1, behind the "special forces tourism" is the deployment of business increased, after "winning in China", Musk wants to win hemp.

Huang Jenxun was revealed to be visiting in June, and may start a Chinese mainland trip after the "whirlwind hit Taiwan", which is a way to break through the fence in the context of the chip war.

It is not necessarily appropriate to give the arrival of Cook, Musk and Jensen Wong a diachronic symbol of "past/present/future".

However, it is clear that the business layout of the enterprises behind the three in China does reflect the judgment of globalization opportunities in the complex situation of the three global technology frontier industries with generational differences.

Here I have to say first, I am not a fan of the signal body, too many so-called signals are not "listening to the wind is rain", but "hearing the wind and grass feel that thunder is coming", which belongs to the over-interpreted carnival, just to satisfy the secret voyeurism of "knowing the world without going out" fed by the shock body and the big word preference of saying that "something big happened".

There are not so many signals in this world, and there are more people who love to see the direction of the wind, and they follow the inherent impression to conjure up the "intracranial weather vane", and there are a bunch of signals.

But there is no doubt that the signal is a "knotted rope note" that many people predict future droughts and floods based on past winds and rains, which fits the path-dependent tendency of countless people when classifying things.

Musk's visit to China and his meeting with the leaders of three ministries and commissions obviously has a lot of information, and it is inevitable that he will be placed under the framework of the signal body.

After Musk left by private jet to manually end the longest "no tweet" record in 1 year, NVIDIA CEO Huang Jenxun is expected to undertake the heat of the topic of "big guys coming to China" after Musk's departure.

"Ruthless" Huang Jenxun and Musk are both people with stories, but there are many differences in the stories of the two.

▲ Huang Jenxun, who was born in Taiwan and grew up in the United States, has now become the first Chinese head of the "trillion market capitalization club" enterprise. He once wrote "Xun" as "smoked" when writing his Chinese name.

In terms of coming to China, Musk and Huang Jenxun do have some similar performances, such as praising China before departure.

Before his visit to China, Musk praised China's space industry, saying that "China's space engineering program is more advanced than most people realize." Earlier, he also praised China's new energy, Chinese workers, and WeChat, a national social product.

When Huang Jenxun was "spoiled" by Bloomberg to come to China, he also said that "there are many GPU (graphics chip) startups in China, don't underestimate China's catch-up ability in the chip field." "The public must acknowledge China's technological advances in cloud computing, internet services, digital payments, electric vehicles and autonomous driving technologies."

It sounds like the rhythm of asking Maskratha, the leader of the "Chinese Kwakwa Group", to join the group.

However, in terms of consideration of coming to China, although the two sides have many common views, both stand on the side of "the next China in China", and do not want to decouple and exercise, but the specific demands are different.

After all, although both are based on emerging industries, they have some differences in the pattern of geopolitical games.

In "Musk is gone, leaving the suspense to Huang Jenxun", Wu Xiaobo's team asked: Is Huang Jenxun a little more "horse" or more "library"?

Cook, Musk, and Huang Jenxun are almost the three most influential bigwigs in the current American science and technology industry.

At the crossroads of history, all three "whipped the east", but Cook went east and then south, and Musk continued to throw dice into the bamboo tube on the east side.

For now, Huang Jenxun's pace is more frequent than Musk's, but reality determines that there will be a difference between the two positions.

To be sure, the technology giants at the helm of Huang Jenxun and Musk and Cook have a clear generation difference in the "ecological niche".

Apple opened the curtain of the mobile Internet era and stood at the top of the global tower under the window of the mobile Internet.

But when the pointer of the Combo cycle points to "AI", Apple's technical reserves are still deep, but it is not "the most beautiful boy in the AI street".

The most beautiful boy is Tesla in the field of new energy, and NVIDIA in the field of computing power supply.

Some people say: in the new industrial revolution, Tesla is the representative of "new oil", and NVIDIA is the representative of "new fuel engine"

To some extent, Cook represents the "AI upstart" in the "Internet upstart", and Musk and Huang Jenxun are AI upstarts.

▲ Huang Jenxun and Musk have been in the same frame many times.

In terms of market capitalization, $1 trillion is a watershed symbol, and being able to join the "trillion market cap club" means standing at the commanding heights of the global technology industry.

Apple's market value has long broken 1 trillion, and Cook once brought it to a height of 3 trillion, but Apple is strong.

Now, when smartphones enter the saturation period, Apple's exponential growth space will "narrow year-on-year".

Tesla and Nvidia have really exploded in recent years.

Tesla's market value was still hovering in the range of more than $30 billion in June 2019, and earlier, the troubled Tesla was almost sold by Musk to Cook.

But by October 2021, Tesla's market value broke 1 trillion. In just over two years, the market value has increased by more than 30 times, and now it has pressed the old-school car giants such as Toyota and Volkswagen under him, and sat in the No. 1 position in the market value of global car companies.

Nvidia is replicating the myth of Tesla.

Although it has created the miracle of "the former Intel brother dumped Intel 100 streets today", just 1 year ago, NVIDIA was still in a difficult moment.

High-end graphics GPU? Sorry, everyone's mining heat has been forced to recede, coupled with market restrictions, NVIDIA GPU inventory in 2022 is serious, the overall revenue growth in fiscal 2023 is less than 1%, and the net profit is directly cut.

But with the outbreak of the AIGC wave driven by ChatGPT, the AI "arms dealer" NVIDIA opened the lying win mode. On May 25, Eastern time, NVIDIA closed up 24%, and an Alibaba rose in one day; On May 30, NVIDIA rose more than 4% at the open, with a total market value of more than $1 trillion.

It can be said that in the context of "AI's iPhone moment is coming", Tesla is the biggest winner of AI integration into the industrial layer, and NVIDIA is the biggest winner under the skyrocketing demand for AI computing power.

So why did Cook "step on two boats", and Musk and Huang Jenxun want to hug the Chinese market?

An important reason is that in the era of globalization, Apple has completed some capital accumulation in the dividends of globalization, and when the era of slow globalization or anti-globalization arrives, the accumulated advantages have built strong barriers for it.

Tesla and NVIDIA are ushering in an explosive growth period, and they still need to absorb more globalization dividends when the waves are rough and support the window of opportunity even more.

So what is the bottom support for the globalization dividend? To put it bluntly, it is the technology and talents of European and American enterprises + China's supply chain and market.

Apple's expansion lies in maximizing Apple's product ecological advantages through fruit chain landing and market development.

Tesla and NVIDIA as "upstarts", also want to give full play to their existing advantages, Musk and Huang Jenxun naturally want to seize the two "treasures" of China's supply chain and market, dig and dig in the big Chinese supply chain market, plant big seeds, open big... (Sorry for the rotten terriers)

Because of this, Cook came to China like an American tourist, visiting shops, shopping, listening to music, visiting, and meeting, leisurely as if participating in a sunset red tour group.

Musk is like a "time management master", the 2-day itinerary is full, the leader meets, the customer talks, the factory reads, and goes straight to the business.

Huang Jenxun was rumored to be Chinese mainland that he was going to visit technology companies such as Tencent, Byte, BYD, Ideal and Xiaomi, and he was also nonsense and went directly to cooperation.

▲ Huang Jenxun once stood for Lei Jun.

For Tesla, what it needs most is the Chinese supply chain.

New energy vehicles are very different from traditional automobile manufacturing, requiring both a solid manufacturing foundation and strong Internet technology support.

China's manufacturing can replace Japan and Germany to achieve a leap, and the key reason is digital empowerment. With the blessing of digital technologies such as ABCD (AI, blockchain, cloud computing, big data) + 5G, China has become the only country with hardware such as body, floor and three electric systems, and software such as intelligent cockpit and automatic assisted driving, that is, a complete industrial chain, and the other is the United States.

Expanding to the new energy industry, the new energy also lies in the embedded digital gene. The rapid development of China's new energy is closely related to the spillover of Internet technology.

That's why Tesla embraces Shanghai. It has no time to wait for Southeast Asia to cultivate a deep Internet ecology, but Southeast Asia can't give it, China can give it directly.

For NVIDIA, what it needs most is the Chinese market.

The main application field of NVIDIA's GPU is slowly extending to the field of AI large models. The operation of large models is indispensable to the support of accelerated computing infrastructure. In this regard, it depends on NVIDIA as the underlying computing power supplier.

At present, in addition to the technology giants such as OpenAI, Google and Meta in the United States, there are still a number of AI companies in China BAT+TMD+. The domestic large-scale model fever has brought a huge computing power gap.

Where the market is, the demand follows. Nvidia certainly doesn't want to miss out on China's huge AI market.

It is worth noting that NVIDIA's fiscal year 2023 financial report shows that NVIDIA's revenue in the Chinese market accounts for 47% of the overall global market revenue, which is not an exaggeration.

So Huang stressed that China, which accounts for about one-third of the U.S. technology market, cannot be replaced, "because there is no other China in the world, only one China."

Musk's visit to China is regarded by many as a weather vane of "political cold and economic heat" between China and the United States.

Musk did not join the "decoupling chorus", but tied more tightly with Shanghai, which is indeed on the opposite side of decoupling.

But in terms of weather vane, the symbolic significance of Huang Jenxun's visit to China is not necessarily weaker than Musk's.

The core reason is one point: the Sino-US science and technology war has indeed begun, but the war in other fields is ultimately a "metaphor", and when used in the chip field, it is the essence - the cannon of the chip war has begun.

Musk's new energy vehicle and energy storage business is indeed the future technology industry in the United States, but it is not in the "negative list" of technology output.

The White House did say that Musk had increased his layout in China, but it was just unhappy and did not take any substantive action.

Huang is talking about the Chinese market, but he wants to sell AI chips and related products to Chinese companies.

At a time when the United States has introduced the "Chip Act" and is also focusing on pulling Japan, South Korea and Taiwan into the "Semiconductor Quadrilateral Alliance", this requires Huang Jenxun to find ways to break through more help and break through the restrictions and blockade.

In the face of China's AI application and equipment terminal market, Huang Jenxun certainly does not want to give up.

The situation he faced included several points:

1, the US government's export restrictions on semiconductor supplies have made NVIDIA's "hands tied behind its back".

Huang once said bitterly that the restrictions had caused "NVIDIA to be unable to do business in China, one of the world's largest markets."

2, NVIDIA has not encountered BYD-level opponents in the field of computing power supply in China.

Tesla has encountered challenges from BYD and "Wei Xiaoli" in China, but NVIDIA's competitors in the same class have not yet appeared.

This time, Musk visited China to meet partner Zeng Yuqun, chairman of CATL, and NVIDIA's "CATL" is probably TSMC, which is moving to the United States.

▲Musk's visit to China specially advised Zeng Yuqun, chairman of CATL.

3, China's AI chip startups have a large number of momentum, showing a trend of catching up.

Nvidia currently accounts for 80% of global graphics card sales, but if it withdraws from China's vast market, it will give up the opportunity to Chinese AI chip companies whose ability to catch up is "not to be underestimated".

Huang could not sell the top A100 and H100 chips to the Chinese market, and could only sell low-grade versions of the A800 and H800.

Even so, in the case that chips have become the forefront of global technology competition, Huang Jenxun's coming to China is bound to be subject to strict scrutiny from across the ocean.

In a dilemma, it is impossible to say that Huang Jenxun is not under great pressure.

But the more so, whether he can come to China smoothly will have an impact on the behavior trend of the US chip industry at special nodes.

Many times, the accelerated melting of the ice surface is driven by the act of breaking the ice.

From Musk to Huang Jenxun, the two hottest companies on the AI outlet, have set more attention on China, which is undoubtedly an opportunity.

As Professor Wang Xinxi said, among the two major forces of US financial capital and industrial capital, China is more inclined to choose to carry out in-depth cooperation with US industrial capital.

Tesla and Nvidia value China's supply chain or market, which means that they can export the world's top production capacity to China in an integrated manner. This is exactly what we need.

Whether they come to China to release "5G" or "6G" signals, embracing them with an open attitude is the most appropriate attitude.

One Musk is coming, and maybe ten Wang Sk will follow; One Huang Jenxun is coming, maybe five Lee In-hoon will look forward to it together.