Pi Haizhou: Covid-19 vaccine concept stocks affected The impact of Merck's COVID-19 oral drug should not be overestimated

Pi Hai Chau | Cube everyone talks columnist

On October 8, the first trading day of the A-share market after the National Day holiday, the trend of the new crown vaccine concept stocks touched the heartbeat of many investors. After all, during the National Day holiday, the news of Merck's new crown oral drug in the United States once had an impact on the global new crown vaccine concept stocks.

In the Phase 3 study, merck oral drugs for COVID-19 obtained positive results in the interim analysis, reducing the risk of hospitalization or death by about 50% compared with placebo. To that end, the company plans to file an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) application with the FDA as soon as possible and will submit listing applications to several regulatory agencies around the world. Affected by this news, the global new crown vaccine concept stocks once showed a sharp decline. It is precisely because of this that the trend of the new crown vaccine stocks in the A-share market after the holiday has attracted the attention of many investors.

Judging from the trend of the new crown vaccine concept stocks in the A-share market on October 8, the new crown vaccine concept stocks have been more or less affected by merck's new crown oral drugs. For example, Watson Biology, Zhifei Biology, CanSino, Dongfulong and other new crown vaccine concept stocks have all fallen by a certain extent, falling between 5.57% and 12.64%. However, despite this, the impact of Merck's NEW CROWN oral drugs is still relatively limited overall, especially the impact on China's new crown vaccine, the impact is almost negligible, and there is no need for the market to amplify the impact of Merck's new crown oral drugs on the concept stocks of the new crown vaccine.

First of all, Merck oral covid-19 drugs are a treatment for new crown pneumonia, that is, the treatment of patients with new crown pneumonia, which can reduce the risk of hospitalization or death by about 50%, but does not play a preventive role. Therefore, Merck oral COVID-19 drugs are not suitable for healthy people, and it does not prevent healthy people from COVID-19. To keep healthy people out of COVID-19, this requires the use of COVID-19 vaccines. Therefore, MERCK oral drugs cannot replace the new crown vaccine, and no country will stop vaccinating the new crown because of the emergence of the new crown oral drug of Merck. To prevent COVID-19, it is necessary to get the COVID-19 vaccine.

It is precisely for this reason that Academician Zhong Nanshan said in an exclusive interview a few days ago that when will China be completely open? The vast majority of people have been vaccinated – at least 80 or more. After vaccination, the ability to prevent diseases, especially to prevent aggravation, becomes stronger, that is, most of us have no or only very light feelings, which is a criterion. Obviously, in our country, the main measure to prevent new crown pneumonia is to get the new crown vaccine. Therefore, Merck's COVID-19 oral drug will not have an impact on China's COVID-19 vaccine companies.

And, just after news of Merck's oral COVID-19 drug, on 7 October, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus announced the launch of a global COVID-19 vaccination strategy, hoping to vaccinate 40% of the world's population by the end of the year and 70% of the world's population by the middle of next year. Presumably, the strategy requires at least 11 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccine. It can be seen that the world has not stopped the vaccination of the new crown vaccine because of the imminent emergence of Merck's oral drug for the new crown. Therefore, the impact of Merck's ORAL COVID-19 drugs on the COVID-19 vaccine is very limited.

Secondly, as an innovative drug, merck's COVID-19 oral medicine will obviously not be too low in price. As a preventive measure, vaccination against covid-19 is borne by the state in our country, and as an individual, it is free of charge, and individuals do not need to bear the cost. Therefore, in this case, it is clear that the individual still prefers vaccination. If you can prevent covid-19, why should you let yourself be infected with new crown pneumonia and then take Oral Covid-19 drugs from Merck?

Third, Merck's new crown oral drug is not unique, in fact, there are also pharmaceutical companies in China that are developing oral drugs. For example, the products that Watson Biology and Sunno Biologics are jointly developing, like Merck's Moneravir, are small nucleic acid routes, also originate from anti-influenza, and are also effective in many fields, and may even be more advanced. In fact, in April this year, Watson Bio made an announcement on this. Another example is the development of pharmaceutical products "pukluamine", and Merck products are two routes, its principle is to prevent the virus from entering human cells, so whether mild or severe, there is potential for treatment, but it is still in phase III trials, and the results of the experiment have not yet been announced.

Therefore, Merck's new crown oral drug is currently chased by similar products after the new crown vaccine is blocked, so the company hopes to apply to the FDA for emergency use authorization in order to obtain the first place in the same product and strive for more living space, and it is basically impossible to challenge the new crown vaccine.

Fourth, Merck is an American company, and Merck's NEW CROWN oral drugs are naturally American products. According to the "America First" principle, Merck's COVID-19 oral drugs are clearly priority to meet the needs of Americans, and it is difficult to supply them to the world in a short period of time. From the perspective of China's situation, the new crown vaccine is a dominant project in China's fight against the epidemic, and the treatment of new crown pneumonia, some hospitals in China also have effective treatment methods, so the demand for MERCK new crown oral drugs is not urgent. If it is a new crown oral drug of a domestic company, it may be applied, but as an imported drug, and it is not a necessary drug, it will certainly be used with much caution. Therefore, Merck's oral COVID-19 drugs are not enough to have an impact on China's COVID-19 vaccine and the treatment of COVID-19.

Editor-in-charge: Tao Jiyan | Review: Li Zhen | Director: Wan Junwei