This article is based on publicly available information and is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice.
In November 1983, Bill Gates delivered his first keynote speech at a dealer conference in Las Vegas: Computer graphical interfaces, the Windows that would become popular around the world. Jobs was furious about this, which he saw as Microsoft's appropriation of the graphical interface of Apple's Mac.
In the ensuing face-to-face confrontation between the two, an IT meme destined to be a timeless classic was born in Gates' piercing voice: "Well, Steve, I think the situation is closer to this - we all have a rich neighbor named Xerox, and when I broke into his house to steal the TV, I found that you stole it."
The graphical interface was born at Xerox. The first person to discover its potentially immense value was Steve Jobs. And the ultimate development is Gates. No matter how angry Jobs was at the time, he failed to stop the course of history.
Great Wall Motor yesterday attacked BYD on the grounds that "the normal temperature fuel tank is suspected of exceeding the standard", in essence, it actually wants to change the progress of a period of history: this time it is not a graphical interface, but a hybrid technology (BYD DMI VS Great Wall DHT) track.
The so-called normal temperature fuel tank, or the exhaust gas exceeding the standard, is not the center of the target. Hybrids are.
Baoding and Shenzhen are two important cities for local private cars. When Wei Jianjun created the Harvard H6 sales miracle in 2013, BYD was still in the end. In addition to Li Lu and Munger, few people can see BYD ten years later, and its market value can (once) top a trillion.
Ten years later, Great Wall Motor, few investors would have expected at that time, but it would be difficult to expect BYD's back.
In the era of new energy vehicles, it is an indisputable fact that Great Wall Motor is slow. But to be able to build such a blockbuster boutique as the Haval H6 and the Tank 300, you have to count on him to settle for his fate, just as forcing Jobs to give up the pursuit of the iPhone after the Mac, Pixar and iPod - absolutely impossible.
In 2023, for Wei Jianjun and his Great Wall Motor, just like in 1997, Jobs returned to Apple: that year, Jobs was about to use the iMac as a ticket to get back his time; This year, Wei Jianjun's ticket to regain his time was DHT.
In January this year, we pointed out in the report "11 Trends for New Energy Vehicles in 2023" that PHEV (plug-in hybrid) growth will still be ahead of BEV (pure electric) in 2023. In fact, in the new energy vehicle industry, few people pay attention to this: PHEVs have inadvertently become a super track - 2022 is the first year of the outbreak of domestic PHEVs, with a growth rate of 167%, compared with 85% BEV growth.
As of now, the two best performing local new energy brands in 2023, BYD and Ideal, are actually supported by the PHEV basic plate.
This is not difficult to understand:
1. At present, the power battery is constrained by performance and cost, and it is difficult for BEV to enter the price segment of low-priced models, and forced entry is either the product performance is discounted or the cost is difficult to control;
2. The infrastructure of new energy vehicles is still not perfect, charging is still difficult to say convenient, and long-distance travel experience is poor, so gasoline-electric hybrid is still a reasonable choice for mainstream consumer households under multiple dimensions such as economy and convenience.
The first of Mankiw's ten economic principles: people (consumers) face trade-offs, and this is the logic.
Just in February this year, we also first analyzed and pointed out in the report "Great Wall Motor 2023 Two Keywords: Hybrid, Nirvana": How will Wei Jianjun break the game? The answer is to bet on a hybrid track.
Great Wall Motor's hybrid technology logic and the strategic significance of the hybrid track to Great Wall Motor's lever have been clarified in the above report and will not be repeated.
At this moment, it is only necessary to add that Great Wall Motor has prepared enough weight for this battle, and a whistleblower letter indicates that the former king of local oil trucks has fired the first shot of a comeback and return to the high table of the era.
From the perspective of the Great Wall, the chain reaction of this shot will probably be set like this:
1. With the fermentation of media and public opinion, Great Wall Motor used BYD as a background board to return to the spotlight of the new energy track.
2. The regulatory authorities intervene in the investigation process, and BYD's self-certification (or correction) process will also be a comprehensive marketing offensive process for Great Wall Motor's hybrid models.
3. Not surprisingly, we will gradually see a lot of analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of different hybrid technologies in various channels, and more and more consumers will learn real automotive expertise in the debate.
4. Mr. Jiang Baili, a military strategist, once said: In the war between the two countries, they are not afraid of whale swallowing, but are afraid of encroachment. Great Wall Motor will gradually take back its seats on the new energy track with encroachment strategies, and new hopes will be exposed: through the trinity of battery, intelligence and the whole vehicle to regain its lost era. This is not our assumption, Wei Jianjun must have understood Jiang Baili, after all, the latter was the president of Baoding Military Academy, China's highest military academy in the 1910s.
5. The pattern is gradually becoming a big enough car track to accommodate BYD and Great Wall Motor. If you have time, you might as well cherish each other after a big fight.
Here, we must especially remind those new energy vehicle companies that have melon-eating plots: you should be careful, don't be a lively watch. Historical experience tells us that when giants fight, the result is usually that the younger brothers in the back row are eventually defeated.
Above, no matter what the final success or loss of this battle, the author is happy for it to happen: in the long run, a whistleblower letter is as light as a feather, but China's rising new energy vehicle industry needs its own Jobs and Bill Gates.
Business competition is not about inviting guests to dinner, and the ultimate rise of an industry is by no means based on a group of harmonious atmosphere. We love Wang Chuanfu's tenacity, and we love Wei Jianjun's bravery.