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Since the beginning of the Ukrainian crisis, the conflict has continued to escalate from the east and west of the Donbas region to Russia and the heart of Ukraine.
The warring sides have effectively become a confrontation in the Western world led by the United States behind Russia and Ukraine, and as the territory of the warring parties expands and the intensity of weapons use increases, many media and experts claim that the world has reached the brink of World War III.
In particular, in the eastern part of the Eurasian continent, the Taiwan independence forces, with the connivance and support of the United States and Japan, have repeatedly provoked the mainland, constantly aggravated tension in the Taiwan Strait, and the theory of a third world war has spread around the world.
Dr. Henry Kissinger, a master of international relations in the United States and former US Secretary of State, once said that if World War III broke out, Japan, the defeated country in World War II, would be the first to attack the three countries.
So, is China among the countries that Japan attacked? The answer is yes.
However, the other two, which we may have some difficulty comprehension, are the United States and Australia, which are called "father and son" and "brother" respectively with Japan.
Leaving aside Japan's relations with the United States, Australia and the mainland, let's first talk about why Kissinger predicted that Japan would continue his World War II-era strategy of attacking these three countries.
The ephemeral of the "Great Japanese Empire"
Japan, whose history probably dates back to the 3rd century AD, began with the emergence of Yamato Kingdom in its territory, and was in a period of chaos and division for a long time, and around the 7th century AD, Emperor Shinmu established the State of Japan after unifying Japan, and became the first emperor of Japan, and Japan completed the unification for the first time.
It didn't take long for Japan to fall into the era of the daimyo warlord shogunate, which lasted until 1590, when Toyonari Hideyoshi established a unified Japanese regime after winning the Odawara conquest.
At this time, Japan had already planned to "go out" and use war methods to complete their blueprint for expanding territory.
Seeing that the Ming government on the other side of the ocean was "poor and weak", he felt that it was profitable, and first organized Japanese ronin to collude with pirates, constantly invading and plundering the eastern coastal areas of the mainland, and then raised 100,000 troops from all over the country to once capture Pyongyang in North Korea.
Unfortunately, before this heel could stand firm, it was annihilated by the Ming Dynasty army and the Korean military and people as the suzerainty, and Toyosei Hideyoshi also died in worry.
After another turmoil, Japan entered the era of more than 250 years of Tokugawa shogunate rule. Until 1854, Japan was invaded by the United States and Britain and signed various treaties.
Under internal and external troubles, the rule of the Tokugawa shogunate was overthrown, and with the support of local daimyos, the Japanese power returned to the hands of the emperor, who had retreated to the deep palace for hundreds of years.
At this time, Japan also quickly carried out the "Meiji Restoration" in accordance with Europe and the United States, quickly "left Asia and entered Europe", and became the "most obedient student" in Europe and the United States.
Japan, which has completed the reform from feudal society to capitalist society, has not forgotten the grand blueprint it "walked out" a hundred years ago, and has successively formulated a "three-step" mainland policy.
At that time, the corrupt Qing government gave Japan a chance, and the Sino-Japanese naval battle destroyed the Qing Beiyang naval division, which was known as the seventh in the world and the first in Asia, and ceded Korea, the Ryukyu kingdom and our treasure island of Taiwan.
At this point, it became more and more uncontrollable, and launched a war of aggression against China in 1931, and the huge and incalculable resources in China also caused unspeakable damage to China.
In World War II, Japan occupied more than 1,560 counties and cities in 26 provinces of China during its heyday, controlling Korea, Brunei, Malaysia, etc., and became the "king of East Asia".
But Japan is greedy enough, and the snake devours the elephant.
After occupying most of the territory in the central and eastern regions, in order to further open up Southeast Asia, Japan took advantage of the United States' focus on the European theater and released various "peace-seeking" smoke bombs to the United States, and raided and bombed Pearl Harbor in the United States in 1941.
Undeclared war against the United States expanded the Pacific theater. Although the attack on Pearl Harbor gave Japan a short time to obtain the key to the sea into Southeast Asia and South Asia.
But as Hitler put it, it was "the foolish action of the pig teammates", and the war quickly turned around after the full involvement of the United States, and after the demise of German fascism in May 1945, Japan was quickly defeated in less than three months.
The Japanese fascists, who saw their own destiny, unexpectedly put forward the so-called "100 million jade shattered" plan regardless of the lives and deaths of their own people, in a vain attempt to let ordinary people prevent their own destruction.
Finally, after triggering two mushroom clouds over Nagasaki and Hiroshima and the innocent deaths of 200,000 people, they reluctantly signed the unconditional surrender.
During World War II, Japan basically implemented his so-called "mainland policy", first taking Korea and Taiwan, and then using this as a springboard to invade China, and then Southeast Asia and South Asia, which can be said to be his innate "island mentality" of restless ambition.
As for why the United States, a "big power that cannot be provoked," was twisted into the war halfway at that time, it is necessary to talk about his own conditions and geographical location.
The crisis of small island states with great scarcity
Japan is an island nation on the west coast of the Pacific Ocean, surrounded by the sea, separated from Russia, North Korea, South Korea and the mainland to the northwest, Taiwan Province on the mainland to the south, and Southeast Asian countries to the southwest.
With an area of 378,000 square kilometers, smaller than Yunnan Province on the mainland, but with a population of 122 million, Japan is extremely short of mineral, energy and terrestrial resources.
There are only 12 kinds of minerals in Japan, most of which do not have economic mining value, and the few mines that can be mined are also prohibited from mining as domestic strategic reserves.
In terms of energy, Japan is the fourth largest consumer and third largest importer in the world.
Due to the lack of domestic oil and coal resources, Japan basically relies on imports to maintain economic development, and the energy self-sufficiency rate has been very low less than 10%.
To a certain extent, these have also become important reasons affecting Japan's foreign aggression and expansion.
After Japan embarked on the capitalist path through the Meiji Restoration, its dependence on external resources increased. Although it launched a war against China in 1931 and invaded our three eastern provinces, it greatly alleviated its own energy shortage problem.
However, due to the limitations of its own industrial level, around 1938, the dependence of overall foreign trade was as high as 44%, and more than 90% of gasoline and 75% of steel needed to be imported from the United States.
At this time, although the United States was not directly involved in the war, it was deeply worried about the increasing expansion of German-Japanese fascism, fearing that its own profits would be set on fire due to the failure of the anti-fascist state.
Therefore, around 1938, the United States gradually tightened export restrictions on war materials from Germany and Japan, but this was also the lifeblood of Japan's maintenance and expansion of the war.
It can be said that in order to realize Japan's attempt to enslave the East Asian countries in order to realize its dream of "common prosperity in Greater East Asia," Japan took a desperate move to eliminate the Pacific Fleet, the main military force of the United States in the Far East, and then occupied Australia and grabbed a large amount of ore energy to achieve the goal of "supporting war with war."
The great power pursuit of the "lame giant", such as the ambition of the "three wars", will surely be highlighted
Japan's unjust war of aggression was ultimately lost. After receiving the baptism of the atomic bomb, Japan's "bullying the weak" nature once again played a role, and from top to bottom, with low eyebrows and obedient acceptance of the peaceful transformation of the United States.
Originally, the United States and other allies planned to completely transform Japan into an agricultural country with no external threat, and large-scale demolition of Japan's industrial facilities.
However, due to the development of the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union competed for hegemony, and in order to curb the expansion of communism in the Far East, the United States was determined to make Japan its own "bridgehead" in East Asia.
This also gave Japan, which is about to become a "non-influent" country, successfully hugged the lap of the Americans.
As a result of the wars in East Asia such as Korea and Vietnam, the economy quickly recovered to the pre-war level, and achieved development in the 50s of the last world, rapidly surpassing Europe and the United States, and becoming the world's second largest economy in 1968.
However, in terms of politics, due to its status as a defeated country in World War II, Japan's politics, military, and even diplomacy have long been constrained by the United States and its own "peace constitution", and it has indeed become a "lame giant" country.
In recent years, Japan has been striving for the direction of a "normal power", actively participating in global affairs, applying for membership as a permanent member of the United Nations, and closely following the United States in carrying out various military exercises and stationing activities around the world.
As China's military strength continues to increase with the continuous improvement of comprehensive national strength, the United States wants to support Japan to become a "normal country" and then curb "China's change of regional balance", tacitly allowing Japan to revise the pacifist constitution, increase military spending and overseas "troops" and other series of "break through the restrictions of World War II order" to seek an Indo-Pacific strategy led by the United States and Japan.
The incomplete transformation after World War II led to the resurgence of militaristic thinking. The dream of the "Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere" also has deep soil in Japan.
From falsifying the history of World War II, denying the Nanjing Massacre and the comfort women incident, to "buying" our Diaoyu Islands, claiming the "four northern islands", and competing with the DPRK and South Korea for sea areas, we are actively seeking regional discourse.
As many scholars say, "Japan is a greedy big country, and the defeat in World War II did not make Japan really reflect on its mistakes", and did not rely on its own scientific and technological development but established its own so-called "co-prosperity" order through expansion.
If the world situation undergoes major changes, Japan will certainly take advantage of the momentum, completely break through the shackles imposed by its defeat in World War II, and rebuild the "glory of the Japanese Empire."
Kissinger said that the United States, Australia and China, which took the lead in attacking, are a comprehensive consideration of Japan's own historical tone and advanced behavior, and have important reference value.
The backbone of the Akita dog, an "ally" under the interests
Since Japan's defeat in 1945 and its acceptance of the United States, Japan's politics, economy, diplomacy, and military have seemed to follow the international strategy of the United States.
From the supply of various materials for US military operations in Asia, to various strategies for socialist countries.
Even the "Hiroshima Agreement" in which the United States allowed its yen to appreciate, to the present day Japan's reconciliation with Australia, South Korea, Vietnam and other countries has been led by the United States, and Japan has completed it, almost always loyal "Inuhachiko".
However, under this obedience, Japan also has great national interests, and under the general policy of the United States, it is also Japan's national interests that take advantage of the wind.
Although Japan has compromised with the United States over the past 78 years, this does not mean that Japan is loyal to the United States.
Just as Japan was a well-known "obedient student" in Europe and the United States before World War II, when it felt that the United States was going to cut off its own war energy supply line, Japan was smiling and awarding the Americans the Peace Medal, and more than a thousand bombers were already on their way to Pearl Harbor.
No matter how loyal the Akita dog is, it will bite anyone for food.
The expectation of an attack on Australia is more determined by Japan's own shortage of natural resources. Although the two countries are now "quasi-allies" under the influence of the United States, Australia has strategic materials that Japan is in short supply.
Australia is rich in mineral resources, oil and gas, with at least more than 70 kinds of mineral resources. Among them, bauxite reserves rank first in the world, accounting for 35% of the world's total reserves.
As the world's largest producer of bauxite, alumina, diamonds, lead and tantalum, Australia is also the world's largest exporter of bituminous coal, bauxite, lead, diamonds, zinc and concentrates.
These are undoubtedly the existence of logistics warehouses for Japan.
Under normal circumstances, Japan is difficult to shake alone in the face of neighboring China and Russia.
In addition to Australia's U.S. military presence in the Pacific, its military power is relatively low among the aforementioned countries.
Rather than pounce on Southeast Asia and Oceania at the same time in World War II, it seems more appropriate to occupy Australia first and then try to map east and west.
epilogue
Japan's "bullying of the weak" is almost deep in the national spinal cord, and during the strong period of the Central Plains Dynasty on the ancient continent, Japan was extremely "aware of current affairs".
For example, during the prosperous period of the Tang Dynasty, Japan repeatedly paid tribute as a vassal state, and sent a large number of high-ranking cadres to the Central Plains to learn all kinds of technical knowledge, and there was no lack of all kinds of praise.
However, in the early Yuan Dynasty, the late Ming Dynasty and other periods, it was to take advantage of the fire and robbery, arrogantly wanting to compete with the mainland.
In modern times, the disasters caused to the mainland have been engraved in the history of the Chinese nation, and Japan bears a historical responsibility that cannot be shirked when it comes to the current Taiwan issue.
Many people think that "there will be a war between China and Japan", but for now, Japan cannot confront China alone, and it may be possible that in the midst of possible great turmoil, we will be dealt a fatal blow while we are not prepared.
Although peace and development are still the main themes of the times, we should not forget our worries because of happiness, and the world is not at peace now, we should remember Kissinger's prophecy and remember history in order to move forward.