On May 19, according to Bloomberg, citing sources familiar with the matter, Apple had cut its long-awaited sales forecast for mixed reality (MR) headsets by about two-thirds.
Apple initially hoped to sell about 3 million units a year, but has now cut its sales forecast to about 1 million units, and then lowered it to 900,000 units. The company will hold a global developer conference on June 5, where it is expected to showcase the product.
In fact, the industry's expectations for Apple's product shipments are generally conservative.
In December last year, Guo Mingxi, an analyst at Tianfeng International who has long followed Apple's industry chain, posted on overseas social media that due to "software-related issues", Apple's mixed reality headset equipment may be delayed until the second half of 2023. The mass production and shipment time of components may still be in the first half of 2023 or the second quarter of 2023, but due to the delay in the mass production and delivery of end products, he expects that Apple headset shipments will be less than 500,000 units in 2023, while the market generally believes that shipments will be between 800,000 and 1.2 million.
Bloomberg previously reported that Apple internally showed off its MR mixed reality headset, "The demo was very beautiful, dazzling, and exciting, but many executives were clear about the challenges Apple faced when entering this new market." ”
The report pointed out that from the perspective of the product itself, the starting price of the device may be as high as $3,000 (about 20,000 yuan), while Meta's VR headset "Quest Pro" is priced at $1,000, and the MR headset also lacks "killer" applications, and needs to replace the external battery every few hours, while some testers believe that some of its designs are unreasonable.
Based on this, Apple executives have "taken a realistic attitude internally" that "this will not be a product that will sell as soon as it goes on sale" and may follow a similar trajectory to the Apple Watch. Executives expect consumer interest to grow as product iterations and lower-priced versions become available.
Apple has been developing augmented reality devices for 7 years, and originally planned to release them in 2019 and 2022, but had to skip the ticket. In March, engineers working on the hardware revealed that the product could be delayed again due to the current poor economic environment. However, the latest news indicates that Apple plans to officially release augmented reality devices on June 5.
Interestingly, when this much-watched product is about to meet the world, Apple's former executives also came to "pour cold water" on this product.
Michael Gartenberg, a former executive who used to be in charge of Apple's marketing efforts, said Apple's augmented reality headset could become "one of the most failed tech products ever," in large part because there is no market for similar products from rivals, such as Magic Leap and Microsoft's HoloLens both doing mediocre.
Gatenberg believes that this product is also under a lot of pressure within Apple.
Apple probably considered starting the virtual reality market around 2015. At first, Cook himself preferred lightweight AR glasses. He said publicly in 2016 that "very few people would think it's acceptable to be locked in something because we are all essentially social beings." ”
However, according to people familiar with the matter, Cook has not deeply intervened in the design and development of this product, "The closest thing Cook can get to product development is to see the prototype demonstration." "Even so, he's not the kind of person who instructs 'X should be done instead of Y.'" Unlike Jobs, who was highly detail-minded, Cook's style was the complete opposite. ”
For a project that costs at least $1 billion a year and thousands of engineers work around the clock, the CEO doesn't care at all, and the impact is even greater. Especially in the context of slower than expected progress and a significant reorientation of the project, this also raises internal concerns about the lack of sufficient resources for the project. One engineer who worked on the MR project complained: "Tim didn't play his part on the project at all, which frustrated people. ”
In addition, other Apple executives seem to be rather cold about the project. Craig Federighi, senior vice president of software engineering, is cautious about the product; Johnny Sluge, senior vice president of hardware technology, was skeptical of the project, likening it to a "science project." Internally, Sluggi warned that building high-performance chips for MR devices could affect the development of iPhone chips, which could apparently bring in more revenue.
Apple now faces a question: what do users who buy this product do with it?
Presentations inside Apple show that people may wear the device at parties and interact with others through external devices. Apple has approached software developers and content providers to ensure that content is available at distribution.
According to a person familiar with the matter, having something to sell is also a way to find an effective solution. "You have to get on a beachhead and then improve it," the person said.
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