Before I talk about the Western Final, let me talk about the prediction of the Eastern Final, I think the Celtics can win.
Playoff predictions mainly look at two factors, the overall strength of the team and the star index. Butler is tough, but Tatum isn't bad either, and the Celtics and Brown are more balanced across the team.
Let's talk about the more concerned Western Final, the Lakers vs. Nuggets.
Before analyzing the overall strength of the team and the star index, I followed the forecast model of the previous article and first looked at the similarities and differences between the two teams.
First, the Nuggets are stronger offense, and the Lakers are stronger defensively.
Among the 16 teams that entered the playoffs, the Nuggets ranked first in the league with 118.7 offensive efficiency, the Lakers ranked eighth with 111.6, the Lakers' defensive efficiency was 106.5, ranked first in the league, and the Nuggets' defensive efficiency was 110.1, ranked fifth. The Warriors and Lakers, both teams are very close in terms of offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency, while the Nuggets and Lakers have obvious differences.
Second, the Nuggets and Lakers both like to play inside.
The gap between the two teams when they choose to shoot is obvious, and the Warriors' three-point shooting ratio is significantly higher than that of the Lakers. Of all the Nuggets' total scoring, 29.2 percent were three-pointers, ranking 13th among 16 playoff teams, and even lower for the Lakers, with 27.8 percent of scoring three-pointers, ranking 15th among 16 playoff teams. Both teams focus on 2 points, although there is a certain relationship with the opponent, Gobert Downs and Ayton encountered in front of the Nuggets are all levels easily named by Jokic, and Jackson and Rooney encountered by the Lakers in front of them, and Davis is not in the same position at all. Jokic vs. Davis is a pinnacle showdown. Today's four high-ranking people, East Embiid, North Alphabet Brother, South Jokic, West Davis, there are Davis and Jokic left. I know that according to the geographical location, it is not appropriate to turn Jokic to the south, mainly to create a quack-lake atmosphere. Embiid is no longer in consideration, who can win this series, who is the first inside line in 2023.
Third, the Nuggets have better rebounds than the Lakers.
Rebounds are a very important metric in the playoffs, and grabbing more rebounds, especially offensive rebounds, means more offensive turns, and in the playoffs, every round is critical. By any measure, the Nuggets are better rebounding than the Lakers. The Nuggets have an offensive rebounding rate of 31.1%, the Lakers have an offensive rebounding rate of 26.6%, the Nuggets have a defensive rebounding rate of 76.9%, the Lakers have a defensive rebounding rate of 70.5%, the Nuggets let opponents grab offensive rebounds 23.1%, and the Lakers let opponents grab offensive rebounds 29.5%. Everyone who watches the Lakers game knows that the Lakers grab rebounds with only one thick eyebrow, James can grab it, but not for this job, and everyone else is useless. For the Lakers to win the series, such a large rebounding gap is quite dangerous, and from my observations, rebounding is not easy. Sometimes positivity can improve rebounding, but there is room for improvement due to positivity.
Fourth, the Lakers make more free throws than the Nuggets.
Free throws are also an important indicator of the playoffs, which has nothing to do with the referee, mainly the style of play. The series of Lakers and Warriors, the Lakers have a higher free throw rate, which is an important factor for the Lakers to win the first game, the Lakers free throw rate is 27.4%, the Nuggets free throw rate is 25.6%, this gap is not so big, but I think there is still a comparison point out, the Lakers should give full play to this advantage.
Fifth, the Nuggets have fewer mistakes than the Lakers.
Netizens who watched the Warriors and Lakers series probably have the impression that whether it is the Warriors or the Lakers, several failures have a lot to do with mistakes. These two teams, before the start of the series, were teams with a high error rate. The high error rate often has a lot to do with team cooperation and staffing. The Nuggets have an 11.7 percent turnover, the fewest of 16 playoff teams, and the Lakers, with a 12.7 percent turnover, are sixth. For reference, the Warriors have a turnaround rate of 14.1%, ranking 14th. The error rate often has a lot to do with the opponent's defense, the Nuggets let the opponent miss 12.8%, the Lakers let the opponent miss 13.6%, how the two teams reduce the turnover, is also an important factor in this series.
Comparing the two teams, there are many other indicators, such as shooting percentage, opponent shooting percentage, etc. At the same time, playoff teams can't have obvious shortcomings, for example, neither the Grizzlies nor the Kings have playoff experience, but the Nuggets are different, they have playoff experience, and they are now very angry. Compared with the Lakers, the Warriors have obvious disadvantages on the inside, while the Nuggets, whether inside or outside, they have no obvious shortcomings. Although everyone does not rely on three-pointers, the Nuggets actually shoot more from the field.
Overall, fundamentally, the Nuggets are a higher-level team than the Lakers.
In the last series, the level of the Lakers and the Warriors was very close, and the Lakers could win by stars.
Then let's compare the stars of the two teams and see if the Lakers still have a star advantage in this series.
The stars of the Lakers are naturally thick eyebrows and James, especially after the series against the Warriors, and no one should look at the Lakers as easily as Dillon now. Healthy James and bushy eyebrows, who have not lost in the playoffs, still hold true so far.
The Nuggets' star is naturally Jokic, the MVP of the previous two years. Beyond that, there's Murray. Murray suffered a big injury, returned close to pre-injury levels, and his true shooting percentage has dropped a little this year, but he is still a good defender overall. The current Murray is certainly a player with a higher economic level than Thompson. In the game against the Warriors, Rivers was the Lakers' most consistent player besides James. I personally feel that Murray's advantage against the Lakers' guard is quite obvious, and Murray may amplify Rivers' talent gap while amplifying Russell's defensive deficiencies. Aside from Russell and Rivers, Schroder is not a defender who excels at defense. To compare with the stars, James and thick eyebrows, a little better than Jokic plus Murray, but the advantage is not as prominent as the previous round. If you want to give a score to the star value, if the Lakers are 10+10=20 points, then the Warriors' star value is 10+5=15 points, and the Nuggets' star value should be 10+8=18 points.
Having said that, I think everyone should understand what I'm saying, the Nuggets are a stronger opponent than the Warriors, whether it's the whole team or the stars.
Speaking of this year's competition, everyone will definitely compare it with the showdown in the bubble park in 2020. Now the Lakers have left the team except James and Thick Eyebrows, and on the Nuggets' side, Jokic, Murray and Porter Jr. are still on the team, and Pope of the Lakers has been replaced by the Nuggets. Compared to 2020, there are several notable changes.
First, Jokic is a better player than he was back then, and the Lakers have fewer chips on defense.
To beat the Nuggets, limiting Jokic is central. Compared with 2020, Jokic has improved significantly in both offense and organization. One of the Lakers' winning tricks that year was to limit Jokic with Howard. This year, the Lakers do not have Howard, and the newly signed Thompson can play the role of Howard that year, I have a big question mark. If Thompson can't harass Jokic effectively, consume Jokic with thick eyebrows. Jokic is smart enough now that if he gets into trouble with fouls, he could limit his playing time.
Second, the thick eyebrow protection inner line is fine, but the peripheral regression is obvious.
Thick Eyebrows was a three-point threat in 2020 and killed the Nuggets with three-pointers, and now Thick Eyebrows no longer has three-pointers, of course, he doesn't shoot threes. The thick eyebrows did not threaten three points, which made Jokic a lot less pressure when defending and could shrink in the box, which reduced the chances of layups for other Lakers teams. When the Warriors deal with the Lakers, they use the defense to attract thick eyebrows to the outside to open up space, this method has not been solved by the Lakers in the end, and the Nuggets will definitely follow suit, but fortunately, the Nuggets do not have a shooter like Curry, but Jokic has a very high three-point shooting percentage in the playoffs, which is a test for the defense of thick eyebrows.
Third, James's form has declined.
This should actually be the biggest factor, and if James still has the form he has in 2020, I will not hesitate to choose the Lakers to win. James' sixth game against the Warriors also demonstrated his ability to read the game and control the tempo of the game. If it is the entire series, it is difficult for James to achieve continuous high-intensity output now. The Nuggets brought in Gordon specifically to deal with James, even at the age of 38, no one in the league can prevent James, but Gordon can consume James.
At the end of the day, let's get to the last question, who will be the best player in this series, according to my own belief in the superstar theory? Because the team where the best player is on wins the series.
The metamorphosis of a star before our eyes is sometimes a subtle feeling, not something that can be quantified. For example, in 2021, I have a hunch that the alphabet brother will break out, this is not an afterthought, you can turn to my Weibo during that time. The reason for my judgment is that I felt that the alphabet brother of that year was more relaxed, and the post-game interview would be joking, and he used to feel reserved and nervous. For Brother Alphabet, he wanted to prove himself too much before, resulting in a lot of restraint on the court, and once he relaxed his mentality, his whole person rose to a higher level, and the playoffs were hard for several games. As for the continuous halberd in the back, the butterflies that break out of the cocoon also have times when they fold.
This year I feel that Jokic has also undergone a metamorphosis. Jokic has always been in that cute state, his mentality is already very relaxed, he is not the same as the alphabet brother. His problem was that he lacked the leadership and infectiousness on the field, the ability to unite teammates and control their emotions during the game. This ability, which James played to the fullest, is very important in the playoffs. You still remember Jokic shouting to his teammates on the bench some time ago against the Suns, "There are only two of them!" "In the past, Jokic rarely did this. The game in which Jokic scored 50 losses also reflected his playoff spirit, which is not the same as Embiid.
James, Bushy Brows, Jokic could all be the best players in the series, and my gut feeling is that Jokic is more likely.
According to my analysis above, the Nuggets have a great chance of winning, but their opponents are James and Thick Eyebrows after all, as long as they make mistakes, James can seize the opportunity, and the Nuggets will definitely make mistakes, but there is still a gap between the two teams overall.
Final prediction: Nuggets beat the Lakers 4-3.
