It is said that one of the national football Asian Cup draws is selected, and the average ranking of the 4 teams in the same group in FIFA is 88th in the world! In terms of schedule, it is also from weak to strong, and the final round of Qatar is even expected to do its best.
Does the Asian Cup need the Chinese men's team to go further? Although the situation is good at first glance, the strength of the Lebanese team is stronger than many people think, and the national football team really does not think that this group is second, like dandelions on the hillside.
01. First match against Tajikistan: The opponent's combat effectiveness is 55 with the national football team
a. 4 years ago: The national football team won by 1 goal
Although the national football team maintains a winning rate of up to 80% against Tajikistan, the most recent meeting between the two teams was a bit hard to win.
Judging from the statistics of the first half, the national football team ran slightly less than the opponent, and the number of shots on goal was also 6-7. It's just that Tajikistan's shooting efficiency was low, the game was inexperienced, and in the end the national football team won 1-0.
From the perspective of ground ball propulsion, the national football team does not have much advantage. Instead, a few long passes found the center overhead, creating chances.
This time Yang Xu's header to Wu Xi into the box is a good ball, even if the first shot failed to directly threaten the goal, but the second attack and cross, center Yang Xu successfully sent the ball into the opponent's net.
Another very threatening attack was still won by center Zhang Yuning to win the first point of the header. Zhang Xizhe split Wang Gang on the flank, but unfortunately the latter cut inside and seemed to pass like a shot, and could not contact Zhang Yuning again.
Tajikistan's passing and receiving skills are not bad, but Li Ke's performance in that game was excellent, which is one reason why the national football team can keep a clean sheet.
It is not known that at the Asian Cup in early 2024, Lee may not be able to reappear in the national football team.
b. 7 clean sheets in the last 10 games: It is not easy for the national team to score goals
Tajikistan has improved a lot in recent years, and at the 2018 Asian Junior Championships, they made it all the way to the final. In the subsequent World Junior Championship, he defeated Cameroon in Africa.
At the recent Asian Youth Championships, the national youth team was in the same group with them. If it weren't for the inexplicable self-defeating of the Tajik players, perhaps the national youth team would have lost.
Behind the 1-1 draw, the possession rate was only half that of the opponent, and the number of shots was 6-17. Goalkeeper Li Shuai was the most conspicuous player, and the scene was at one point.
In the World Qualifiers, Tajikistan finished second in the group in the round of 40, but because of the goal difference disadvantage, it was crushed by Lebanon to become the second place in the group with the sixth record, and happened to miss the round of 12.
In the last 10 games, Tajikistan have kept seven clean sheets, conceding only four goals in total. Among the teams that kept their clean sheets were Russia and the United Arab Emirates, as well as Kyrgyzstan, the third tier of the Asian Cup (twice).
If the national football team wants to break them, they really have to work hard, and at the same time they need to find the right tactics.
02. Second game against Lebanon: The most crucial match of the entire Asian Cup
a. Round of 12 teams: draw with South Korea and Iraq, defeat Syria
Although it will be a tough battle against Tajikistan, I believe that the more experienced national football team should be able to get 3 points. However, the Lebanese team faced in the next game was obviously more difficult to deal with.
In a way, this team can be seen as another Syrian team. He has also experienced the baptism of war and has a strong fighting spirit and hard work.
Although they have changed old and new after the Asian round of 12 in the World Qualifiers, the national football team will pay a terrible price if they despise them.
In the last World Qualifiers, from the round of 40 to the round of 12, they caused big problems for the South Korean team. In the round of 40, they drew at home to South Korea and once again led 1-0 away (which was eventually reversed by South Korea on penalties).
As far as Lebanon's defense is concerned, it can't be said how high the quality is, but they rely on the four words of solidarity. The defensive end is locally dense, moving agilely, and the defensive players complete the solution.
Let's look at this wave of defense, seeing that the ribs are pierced, and the South Korean player's pick shot is about to cross the goal line, only to be cleared by the Lebanese player.
However, under continuous pressure, Lebanese players can still make mistakes. This time, a penalty was whistled for handball in the box, allowing South Korea to win 2-1.
But there is a question, is the national football team really able to suppress the Lebanese team on the field? If you can't do this, I'm afraid you may be restricted by the other party.
b. Very good at counter-grabbing and launching counterattacks on the spot
As can be seen from the round of 12 standings, Lebanon is at the bottom of the table with 1 win, 3 draws and 6 defeats. However, it should be noted that they have a record of 1 win, 2 draws and 1 defeat in the first 4 rounds (beating Syria and drawing Iraq and the UAE).
However, due to lack of experience and the subsequent loss of the right to qualify, the fighting spirit has declined, and the last 6 rounds of 1 draw and 5 defeats make them look weak.
They reversed their victory over Syria and suddenly scored two goals in stoppage time in the first half.
Both goals were characterized by counter-attacks after steals in midfield. Matuk crosses after breaking through on the wing and striker Kedou scores.
Two minutes later they copied the previous goal, again after the counter-grab and got the ball, striker Kedou fired a quality long-range shot to send the ball to the bottom of the Syrian net for the second time.
The same was true of the final match of the round of 40 match against South Korea, with Lebanon still full of fighting spirit. The goal came from the midfielder counter-attack on the spot after a second counter-attack.
The Lebanese players have a good fighting temperament and are brave. Veteran Sade handled the ball and scored in the box this time with a high quality.
03. What is the weakest seeded team by the host? The national football team has the advantage of the schedule
Qatar: no longer our opponents
Five years ago, in the World Qualifiers, Lippi's national football team dared to say that we are better than Qatar. However, after the success of their naturalization strategy, there is a big gap between the current national football team and them.
Although in the World Cup, Qatar is the only Asian team that did not win and did not take points. The reason for this result is that their pursuit of beautiful football style of play, the use of single back and the idea of leading propulsion, a bit too big.
Afif withdrew to take the ball to organize and advance, and the single back Boudiaf played the ball without dominance against Ecuador, the Netherlands and the United States.
But back in Asia, this set of tactics is really not something that the national football team can restrict.
It's not just the slow ball advance, but Qatar's long back-pass to the centre is also threatening.
Their striker is very good individually, this time after taking the ball without stopping, direct volley, but unfortunately the ball is slightly higher.
b. Target Group 2: Lucky and likely to reach the top 8
They are saying that the national football team is signed, but at the same time, they will also say that Lebanon and Tajikistan are difficult to deal with, and these two things are actually not contradictory.
It is not good to play because the national football team is not strong in its own combat effectiveness, and the signing is because the opponent is not strong, and the national football team has an excellent schedule.
Tajikistan, the weakest in the group stage, Lebanon, the second, and Qatar, face hosts Qatar in the third. If all goes well, Qatar could qualify early and give the national team a draw, which will be extremely beneficial for the national team against the background of the fourth best group promotion (if nothing else, the team with four points from the group stage can reach the round of 16).
If the national football team can finish second in the group, the opponent in the round of 16 will be second in Group C.
The probability will be the UAE team, and it is also possible to meet Palestine, which has the strength of a big dark horse (the World Preliminary Round of 40 defeated Uzbekistan and drew Saudi Arabia).
Relatively speaking, this is already a good opportunity. After all, the current normal level of the national football team is between 8-16 in Asia, and it takes some luck and favor to reach the top 8.
Conclusion:
The four teams in this group, ranked 88th on average in the world, and the third in the group, all have a chance to complete the promotion. For the national team, it may not seem like a difficult task, but it does have the possibility of failure.
Conversely, if Wu Lei, Axon and Jiang Guangtai maintain good form, Wu Xi, Fernando and Li Ke can all get out of injury, and the possibility of the national football team reaching the last 8 cannot be ruled out. Whether Jankovic is a good coach or not, we will inspect the goods in the Asian Cup.