The peace process has made positive progress and multinational relations have been continuously eased.
Why did the Middle East "powder keg" appear "reconciliation tide"
Figure (1): The special meeting of the League of Arab States at the level of foreign ministers decided to reinstate Syria's membership in the League.
Photo (2): Released Houthi prisoners of war hug their families after disembarking from a plane at Sana'a airport, Yemen.
Figure (3): The hasty withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan in order to get out of the quagmire of war, the United States ushered in the sad moment of the "fall of Kabul".
All issued by Xinhua News Agency
Draftsman: Zhao Lin
For the Middle East, known as the world's "powder keg", this spring is particularly kind. A series of exciting news keeps coming.
At present, with China's successful facilitation of dialogue between Saudi Arabia and Iran in Beijing and the restoration of diplomatic relations, a round of "reconciliation waves" is emerging in the Middle East that has attracted global attention: Egypt and Turkey will resume diplomatic relations at the ambassadorial level, the Yemeni peace process has made positive progress, Qatar has made real progress in the resumption of diplomatic relations with Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, and Syria has resumed membership in the Arab League... The Middle East, which has always been full of war, continues to usher in the dawn of peaceful development in 2023.
Multiple contradictions have eased
As we all know, the Middle East is one of the most geopolitically complex regions in the world. The current round of "reconciliation waves" in the Middle East reflects the continuous easing of the two sets of contradictions in the Middle East.
One group is the dispute between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Saudi Arabia is a Sunni power, Iran is a Shiite power. Due to a variety of factors, including religious factional strife and differences in regional affairs, as well as competition for regional leadership, the two countries deepened their grievances and finally broke off diplomatic relations in 2016. Since 2021, the two countries have carried out multiple rounds of contacts under the promotion of Iraq, Oman and other countries, and completed the last mile of resumption of diplomatic relations with the active mediation of China.
The reconciliation between the two countries has had a positive impact on themselves and on the region as a whole. According to media reports, Saudi Arabia has stopped funding Farsi-language media critical of the Iranian government. In Yemen, Saudi Arabia and Iranian-backed Houthi forces held peace talks, and the warring parties exchanged prisoners on a large scale, opening a good start to a long-term ceasefire and political reconciliation. The Syrian issue has also ushered in positive changes, and diplomatic interaction between the Syrian government and many major countries in the Middle East has increased. On 7 May, at its extraordinary meeting in Cairo at the level of foreign ministers, the League of Arab States decided to agree to reinstate Syria's membership in the League.
Another set of contradictions that have been eased is the struggle between radicals and conservatives within Sunni countries. At its most intense, Qatar was severing diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Bahrain in 2017. Since the beginning of this year, the relationship between Turkey and Egypt has warmed up significantly, and Qatar and Bahrain have also announced that they will officially resume diplomatic relations, basically out of the turmoil of severing diplomatic relations.
The willingness to strategic autonomy has increased
Behind this wave of "reconciliation waves" is the enhancement of the awareness of countries in the Middle East to seek development and cooperation and strengthen their strategic autonomy. Against this background, the pattern of the Middle East is undergoing a profound adjustment.
From the perspective of internal factors, Middle Eastern countries, which have experienced years of war, have realized that it is difficult to benefit from armed conflict and diplomatic battles, so they have shifted their policy focus to developing the economy, improving people's livelihood and promoting cooperation. In Yemen, for example, after years of fighting, the parties to the conflict are currently unable to launch another large-scale offensive. Last October, Yemen's interim ceasefire expired, but the ceasefire continued tacitly.
Saudi Arabia proposed the "Vision 2030" seven years ago to achieve economic diversification, and now halfway through, in order to create a relatively stable external environment as soon as possible, the urgency of Saudi Arabia to seek reconciliation with Iran has increased significantly. Iran, on the other hand, basically no longer expects to reach a new Iranian nuclear deal with the United States in exchange for easing sanctions, so it is turning to improving relations with relevant countries to create space for economic development.
From the perspective of external factors, the strategic contraction of the United States from the Middle East has greatly stimulated the strategic autonomy and diplomatic détente of regional countries. Over the years, the United States has repeatedly intervened in Middle East affairs, rarely persuaded peace and promoted talks, and only constantly "pulled one faction and fought another" for its own geopolitical or economic selfish interests. In recent years, the attempt to control the entire world by the hegemonic hand of the United States has become increasingly unsustainable, and recent presidents have continued the policy of strategic retrenchment in the Middle East. This has made it clear to some Middle East countries that the United States' Middle East policy will not bring real benefits to the Middle East.
This is particularly evident in Saudi Arabia. The cooperation between Saudi Arabia and the United States has long been based on the cornerstone of "oil for security". However, in recent years, the United States has repeatedly disappointed Saudi Arabia in security matters. In 2019, Saudi Arabia's key oil facilities were attacked, oil production was greatly reduced, and Saudi public opinion called on the United States to provide relevant security guarantees, but the United States was indifferent. In 2022, Saudi Arabia suffered frequent cross-border attacks, and the United States reduced its defense force deployment in Saudi Arabia. Disillusioned with the United States, Saudi Arabia, while repeatedly rejecting U.S. demands to increase oil production, began to explore independently in diplomacy to improve relations with Iran and Syria.
The development prospects are cautiously optimistic
The current round of "tide of reconciliation" in the Middle East, which is quite large in scope and magnitude, will surely mark a new beginning in the region's march towards peace and development.
On the one hand, economic development and social stability are goals to which Middle Eastern countries attach great importance. Since the "Arab Spring", the countries in the Middle East have experienced more than 10 years of turmoil, and their willingness to fight for economic stability and stability is becoming stronger and stronger. In addition, the solidification of the existing stalemate will also curb the military confrontation impulse of regional countries. The battlefields in Syria, Yemen and Libya, after a long and multiple rounds of tug-of-war, the territory of all forces is relatively stable. In the latest rounds of conflict, none of the parties that launched the offensive achieved its intended objectives. In this case, the consideration of stop-loss by regional countries will somewhat overwhelm the logic of victory, which makes diplomatic dialogue more attractive than military confrontation.
On the other hand, China's insistence on mediating regional conflicts through persuasion and promoting talks and promoting regional stability through peaceful development has provided Chinese solutions for Middle East countries to maintain regional peace, eliminate the root causes of conflicts and achieve long-term peace and stability, which has been widely appreciated by Middle Eastern countries. The global development initiative, global security initiative and global civilization initiative put forward by China coincide with the needs of Middle Eastern countries and have been positively recognized and warmly responded to by Middle Eastern countries. After successfully promoting the resumption of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, China will continue to sincerely contribute to the realization of peace and development in the Middle East.
However, it should also be noted that there are also many obstacles to continuing to promote reconciliation in the Middle East. In particular, the United States is unwilling to decline its influence in the Middle East, and still adheres to tough policies and sanctions against Iran, Syria and other countries, which seriously affects local economic and social development and the improvement of people's livelihood. Nevertheless, as the article by Iran's Mehr news agency said, there are signs that "the era of unilateralism is coming to an end and a new world and world order is taking shape."
(Author: Tang Tianbo, Associate Researcher, Middle East Institute, China Institute of Contemporary International Relations)
Source: PLA Daily