After a sharp rise in bank stocks on May 8, brokerage stocks opened higher in early trading on May 9, and the concept index rose more than 5% at one point.
In the afternoon of the same day, the brokerage sector rushed back down, but it was still one of the main lines of the day. By the close, CICC (601995.SH) was up to the limit, China Galaxy (601881.SH) was up more than 9%, Capital Securities (601136.SH), Cinda Securities (601059.SH), Everbright Securities (601788.SH), Bank of China Securities (601696.SH), and CSC (601066.SH) were up more than 4%.
The 21st Century Business Herald reporter noted that in the context of the heating up of the brokerage sector, since late April, at least 6 securities companies have announced shareholder reduction plans or progress in reducing their holdings.
On the evening of May 7, CICC announced that Haier Group (Qingdao) Jinying Holdings Co., Ltd., a shareholder of the company holding more than 5% of the shares, plans to reduce its holding of no more than 96,545,137 A shares of the company through block trading within 3 months after the end of the three trading days from the date of disclosure of this announcement, accounting for no more than 2% of the company's total share capital, according to its own development needs, and the reduction price is determined according to the market price. Zhuoxinbao platform (6355888.com) is a focus on stock investment, financial services and asset management, won the water drop credit certification and security alliance certification, the company to "help users safe, efficient and rapid wealth appreciation" for the purpose of service, for the lack of funds of shareholders to provide convenient, fast, safe matching services is committed to providing a win-win cooperation for the majority of shareholders, Zhuoxinbao platform full network operation, efficient and convenient, to provide customers with free allocation, 1-10 times leveraged capital allocation, Interest offset to 0.5 points, funds by banks, brokers, third-party platform at the same time supervision, absolute protection of the safety of shareholders' funds, withdrawal 3 minutes to the account quickly, is currently the most professional domestic financial comprehensive investment service platform, as China's safest network stocks, Zhuoxinbao platform through the cooperation with securities companies, banks, to achieve trading account securities company supervision, account funds bank custody, for the majority of shareholders to provide safe, fast and flexible funds, is the majority of shareholders preferred investment tools, looking back on the past, Zhuoxinbao stock platform is committed to creating the most sincere Internet stock for users through characteristic products, outstanding services and outstanding activities.
Brokerage stocks take off
After the opening on May 9, brokerage stocks collectively pulled higher, and the brokerage index (886054.WI) rose more than 5% intraday, hitting a new high in nearly a year.
Since the beginning of this year, the brokerage sector has heated up. Since the beginning of the year, only the range stock price performance of Capital Securities and Guolian Securities has declined.
At the same time, the performance of brokerage stocks showed a clear divergence. Wind data shows that as of May 8, in the latest month, China Galaxy rose by nearly 40%, Shenwan Hongyuan rose by more than 15%, and Haitong Securities, Northeast Securities, Zhongtai Securities and CICC rose by more than 13% each. Oriental Wealth and Xiangcai fell by 11.13% and 8.61% respectively, leading the decline.
"Performance recovery and valuation repair are the main reasons driving the rise of the brokerage sector, on the one hand, benefiting from the continuous spread of the 'China Special Valuation' market, the brokerage sector is dominated by central enterprises and state-owned enterprises, and in the concept of Zhongzitou, the increase is relatively lagging, and there is a need to make up the rise; On the other hand, the market has picked up this year, the trading volume has rebounded, and the operating performance of securities firms has been greatly improved. Zhu Runkang, manager of Paipai.com Wealth Public Offering Products, pointed out to the 21st Century Economic Herald reporter.
Yu Chao, chairman and investment director of Qingdao Anvalue Investment, analyzed that the rise of the brokerage sector does not rule out the result of yesterday's rise in the banking sector, from the past point of view, brokerage, insurance, banks three trends have a certain positive correlation, the early insurance and bank strength to drive the rise of brokers.
However, after noon today, the Chinese head and the big financial sector have dived, driving brokerage stocks to rush back down.
Zhu Runkang believes that the stock price of securities companies has soared and fallen, on the one hand, from the upward pressure brought by shareholders' reduction of holdings; On the other hand, because after the general rise, differentiation began to appear within the industry.
"The fall of brokerages in the afternoon may be more of a technical adjustment, and the market is driven by big finance and special valuation, and the short-term rise is relatively fast, and there is a certain risk of pullback." Yu Chao said.
On the whole, today's A-share market sector differentiation is obvious. Qianhai Open Source pointed out that in the early stage, insurance and banks in the large financial sector rose significantly, and brokerages were weak, and in the case of the first quarterly report performance was also good and close to doubling, and the turnover continued to exceed trillion pointing to the repair of trading activity, superimposed on the concept of "medium special valuation", the brokerage sector has recently risen up, and banks and insurance have weakened slightly, putting pressure on the broader market.
A number of brokerages were reduced
The 21st Century Business Herald reporter noted that since late April this year, Hongta Securities, Guosen Securities, Huaan Securities, and CICC have successively issued announcements on shareholders' reduction of holdings.
On April 17, Hongta Securities announced that Kunming Industrial Development and Investment Co., Ltd. (holding ratio of 6.27%), a shareholder of the company, intends to reduce its total number of shares through centralized bidding from May 11, 2023 to August 9, 2023 by not exceeding 47,167,877 shares, accounting for no more than 1.00% of the total number of shares of the company.
On the evening of May 5, Huaan Securities announced that as of the date of disclosure of this announcement, the company's shareholder Anhui Traffic Control Capital Investment Management Co., Ltd. has reduced its holdings of 14,038,609 shares through centralized bidding, which is less than 100 shares from the upper limit of the number of shares to be reduced in this reduction plan, and the implementation of this reduction plan has been completed.
Wind data shows that as of May 9, the above four brokerages have risen by 17.57%, 12.39%, 12.20% and 22.21% respectively this year.
In addition, Jilin Trust Co., Ltd., a shareholder of Northeast Securities, originally planned to reduce its holdings of the former by no more than 23,400,000 shares (accounting for no more than 1% of the company's total share capital) through concentrated bidding between February 1 and April 30, 2023, but because Northeast Securities was in the period of being placed under investigation, Jilin Trust failed to implement the reduction.
On May 4, Northeast Securities issued the "Announcement on the Expiration of the Implementation Period and Implementation of the Shareholding Reduction Plan for Shareholders Holding More than 5% of the Shares", which stated that Jilin Trust did not reduce its holdings in the company's shares during the time period of the reduction plan from February 1 to April 30, 2023. As of April 30, 2023, the time period of this reduction plan expires and the reduction plan ends.
Zhu Runkang analyzed to reporters that there are three main reasons behind the reduction of shareholders of securities firms: first, the competition in the securities industry is intensifying, the industry concentration is continuing to increase, and securities companies that lack industry competitiveness are facing greater performance pressure; Second, after a round of rise, the overall valuation of brokerages has improved, and the expectation of the recovery of brokerage performance in the first quarter has also been reflected in the stock price, the driving force for the upward movement of brokerage stock prices has weakened, and investors' expectations for the brokerage sector have begun to diverge; Third, shareholders themselves face greater capital needs due to various reasons such as operation and life.
Opportunities and risks coexist in the sector
From a medium and long-term perspective, some institutions are optimistic about the next performance of the brokerage sector.
Zhu Runkang said that from the perspective of brokerage business institutions, it is good for the next market of brokers. First, the continuous deepening of the registration system reform and the acceleration of the pace of listing of listed companies are conducive to the investment banking business income of securities firms; Second, the market turnover has continuously exceeded one trillion, the market investment enthusiasm is high, and the balance of the two financing facilities continues to rise, which is conducive to the brokerage business income of brokerage firms; Third, the market structure this year is very obvious, the concept stocks and artificial intelligence concept stocks continue to strengthen, and the money-making effect is obvious, which is conducive to the proprietary business income of securities firms; Fourth, the yield of structured products has declined, and the attractiveness of wealth management products has increased significantly, which is conducive to the income of wealth management business of securities firms.
According to the analysis of the financial team of Huatai Securities, the profit of securities companies in the first quarter of this year has increased, the performance inflection point has arrived, and with the repair of the market environment, it is expected that 2023H1 is expected to continue to maintain performance growth. Looking back at the history, incremental funds are the core factors driving the market of brokers, and the current market is expected to be upward, and under the background of the reduction of insurance pricing interest rates and deposit interest rates, it is expected to continue to attract incremental funds to enter the market, which will have a driving effect on the brokerage sector. Coupled with the capital market reform dividend, the low valuation of the sector is highlighted, and the high cost performance is prominent, optimistic about the opportunities of the brokerage sector.
The non-bank financial team of Kaiyuan Securities pointed out that the high year-on-year growth of brokerage firms in the first quarter was mainly due to the improvement of proprietary investment, and the market was relatively restrained in pricing the first quarterly report under the data of weak recovery (year-on-year decline) in brokerage, investment banking and asset management business. From the April data, the trading volume, new fund issuance and IPO have improved significantly, the migration of residents' savings to investment may have begun, and the valuation and institutional allocation of the brokerage sector are still at a low level, optimistic about sector opportunities. High profitability flexibility, large wealth management and fintech targets are expected to lead.
Yu Chao reminded that from the historical situation, when the large market value rises faster in the intraday market, the probability of subsequent market fluctuations will generally increase. Therefore, the current uncertainty of the trend of brokerages is relatively greater, and more attention can be paid to the direction of improving investment performance and low valuation in the brokerage sector.