First, as at the end of last year, various genuine experts began to give completely opposite opinions: on the one hand, it is recommended that the fourth dose should be vaccinated, especially the elderly, weak, sick and disabled, and on the other hand, it is said that the concentration of natural antibodies in the population is high, and it is unlikely that the infection will peak now.
Second, the Health Commission recommended a fourth dose after six months before April, and in early April, when most people were less than four months old, they recommended universal vaccination of the fourth dose.
Third, Weibo and today's headlines have significantly increased the number of posts reporting secondary infection, high fever, runny nose, and red and swollen eyes.
Official statistics and non-governmental network statistics show that the proportion of secondary infections has increased slightly, possibly only 1%.
Fifth, my friends in India, Pakistan, Nepal, Canada, and Thailand have been fine since they were infected at the end of last year.
The conclusion is that the second wave of infection may only have a resounding effect on a subset of people, and the situation in mid-May may be similar in size to the scale of influenza A in March and April. This wave of trends may highly coincide with the A flu in March and April, and the infection rate may be lower than that of A flu, and the probability of not being infected is high.
As for whether it will form a rapid peak similar to the end of last year, I feel that it will still be similar to the previous A stream. Because attitudes vary greatly from place to place. Taking Guangzhou as an example, although there is no compulsion, there is also an expert trusted by local people, Lao Zhong, who publicly said at the end of March that masks can be used, and it is now observed that 90% of people in the subway still wear masks during rush hour, and 70% of people still wear masks at other times, and most of the people who do not wear masks come from other places. On the contrary, most small and medium-sized cities in the north are basically unmasked without masks. Influenza A also basically spreads from north to south according to the prevalence of wearing masks.