In-depth analysis: Who can have the last laugh in the Suns vs Clippers grievance game full of elements?

Originally compiled from: The Athletic

Written by Law Murray

原标题：Scouting the Suns: A look at the Clippers’ first-round playoff matchup

Background:

PHOENIX — The Los Angeles Clippers beat the Phoenix Suns 119-114 in Sunday's final round of the regular season. This is the second time in two years that the two teams have met in the playoffs — the fifth-seeded Clippers will face the fourth-seeded Suns in the upcoming 2023 Western Conference playoff first-round series.

The last time the Clippers and Suns met in the playoffs was in the 2021 Western Conference Finals, when the Clippers did not have two-time Finals MVP winner Kawhi Leonard, who suffered a partial ACL tear in Game 4 of the semifinals against the Utah Jazz that year.

This time, Leonard has recovered and is ready to compete. The bad news for the Clippers is that 2023 NBA All-Star Paul George will miss the playoffs indefinitely.

Leonard's play, the Clippers' mid-season introduction of Russell Westbrook, and the Suns' big deal during the season — the addition of two-time Finals MVP Kevin Durant, adding strength to the core roster of Devin Booker, Chris Paul and DeAndrew Ayton all underscore the difference between the 2021 Western Conference Finals and the opening round of this year's playoffs.

Leonard and Durant have not played each other since February 2021, when Durant was with the Brooklyn Nets and Leonard had not yet suffered a partial ACL tear. When Durant played with the Los Angeles Clippers last November, Leonard didn't play. When Wilson was still with the Los Angeles Lakers last November, Durant played a game with him.

The only game this season where the Clippers didn't play the Suns on back-to-back second night was in February, the last NBA game before the All-Star Break. The Clippers beat the Suns 116-107; That game was after the trade deadline, but before the Clippers signed Wilson. On the same day, the Suns introduced Durant, who was still injured, to fans with season ticket holders at the Home Footprint Center Arena. The Suns have won two big games against the Los Angeles Clippers this season: the first on the first Sunday of the season, with Leonard on the bench (a month before Leonard was off for a month with knee pain); The second game was in December, when the Clippers' Leonard, George, Zubac and then-starting point guard Reggie Jackson were out due to injury. Let's take stock of the key points in this upcoming showdown:

Clippers outside offense vs. Suns outside defense

The key to the Clippers' offense lies in Leonard, who averaged 27.1 points and shot 53.8 percent from the field after the All-Star break. Theoretically, the Suns and Leonard were supposed to be Josh Okogie, but he would have been dropped due to his 6-foot-4 height. Suns backup forward Craig, who defended Leonard for most of the Feb. 16 game, was a better choice at 6-foot-7.

Since the All-Star Break, the Clippers have jumped to third in the league with 39.0% three-point shooting and 11th in three-point field goal percentage. Since the All-Star Break, the Suns have averaged 11.6 three-pointers per game, ranking eighth in the league. Without George and Morris Jr. (who have been out since George was injured last month and removed from the starting lineup a week later), the Clippers are less reliant on mid-range shooting. They will shoot more threes.

However, the Clippers will be more proactive on offense, because after the All-Star Break, only the Detroit Pistons have a lower free throw percentage than the Suns. In addition to Leonard, Clippers backup Norman Powell (5.1 free throws per game since the All-Star break) will also actively look for Suns players who are too aggressive and prone to defensive fouls, mainly Devin Booker (3.2 fouls per game since the All-Star break) and DeAndre Ayton (3.1 fouls per game since the All-Star break).

Winner: Clippers

Clippers interior offense vs. Suns interior defense

The Clippers have below-average interior offense, and the Suns are one of the best interior defensive teams in the league after All-Star. In that time, only five teams conceded fewer points than the Suns on the inside, though the Lakers poured the Suns 52 points in the second half during Sunday afternoon's game.

Zubac is the Clippers' interior line of choice. Since the Clippers got Wilson, Zubac has averaged 12.7 points and 68.5 percent shooting. Zubac is the only big man on the team to average double-doubles per game after All-Star. While the Suns have consistently been below average defensive rebounding after All-Star, the Clippers are even worse — in the bottom 10 in offensive rebounding leagues.

The Suns have been in the top 10 for rim protection since All-Star break, with Ayton and Biyombo proving their toughness at the center position, while Durant and Craig play as blockers at the power forward position.

Winner: Sun

Clippers' turnaround control vs. Suns' defensive pressing

Since the break, only five teams have had worse turnovers than the Clippers. The Suns are only average in forced turnovers, with only five teams averaging fewer steals per game than the Suns. Paul and Booker both have the ability to steal, but the Suns haven't been nearly enough to compensate for their serious fouling propensity at forcing turnovers.

The ball is often dominated by Leonard, who is a low-turnover player. Wilson is the Clippers' best playmaker, averaging 7.5 assists per game for the Clippers, but he also averaged 3.5 turnovers per game. Hyland and Terence Mann averaged 6.5 assists per game after the break, with just 2.1 turnovers. While the Clippers will miss George badly in other areas like scoring, his absence actually leaves the Clippers offense with one less error-prone player.

Winner: Clippers

The Clippers' defensive pressure vs. the Suns' misguided control

The Clippers have been mediocre in forced misses after a day off, although that's an improvement over what they've been before. The arrival of Wilson gave the Clippers an extra defensive playmaker to pair Leonard, Nicholas Batum and Robert Covington. But the Suns have the seventh-highest turnovers on the offensive end, and their offense is more focused on mid-range than before.

No team has had a better assist-to-turnover ratio since All-Star break, and whether or not Paul's scoring ability has slipped, he has maintained a high level of offensive ability and ball handling. Booker and Durant will be prone to turnovers, but both have the ability to take over the game, ensuring that Paul isn't the only initiator on the Suns' offense. The Suns also have a good backup Cameron Payne.

Winner: Sun

Clippers interior defense vs Suns interior offense

The Clippers have been one of the most relaxed defensive teams in the league in the box. Since Break Day, only the Portland Trail Blazers, San Antonio Spurs, Atlanta Hawks and Indiana Pacers have lost more points in the box than the Clippers. But the Suns, which the Clippers faced, were less interested in attacking the box. After the break, the Suns' mid-range advantage put them 27th in box scoring, ahead of the Miami Heat, Dallas Mavericks and Brooklyn Nets.

Ayton was the Suns' main choice on the inside, but his play dwindled after the rest day. Booker, on the other hand, improved his interior score to 11.4 points after the break; Before the break, Booker was averaging 9.0 points on the inside. No team has made fewer shots in the box since Break, but the Suns are also the only team in the league to shoot 70 percent from the field during that time. If the solar energy hits the basket more, they will be the team most likely to win this series.

The Clippers' basket protection ability is average. They perform well when Zubac is on the field, and they perform poorly when Zubac is not on the field. The Clippers' defensive rebounds also slipped significantly after the break, dropping from No. 4 to No. 20 before the break. This is important for the Suns, a team that will be more determined to rush for rebounds than Monty Williams' Suns in previous years; Okogie will play a role in this series.

Winner: Sun

Clippers outside defense vs Suns outside defense

This will be the fifth playoff series between Leonard and Durant. Leonard won his Finals Most Valuable Player after stepping past Durant's team in both the 2014 Western Conference Finals and the 2019 NBA Finals. Durant and Wilson defeated Leonard's Spurs in the 2012 Western Conference Finals and 2016 Western Conference Semifinals.

When Durant played against the Clippers in November, George took on the primary defensive role. But things didn't go well. NBA statistics show that Durant shot 5 of 6 under George's defense. Mann was no better, being shot 3-of-4 by Durant. Under the defense of Morris Jr., Durant missed all four shots, but Morris Jr., who has shot just 23.5% from three-point range since Break Day, is currently out due to lower back spasms. He probably won't play again.

Leonard may take on the top priority of defending Durant. The work Jason Tatum did with Durant in the 2022 playoffs (3-of-18 shooting, 4 assists, 12 turnovers, according to NBA data) may be what Leonard has to offer, although Grant Williams' bulky size and quick footwork have also caused Durant trouble. The Clippers will have to physically fight Durant, even though Butum and Covington don't defend that way.

Of course, it's not just Durant that the Clippers have to worry about. This is Booker's team, and he and Durant give the Suns wings to take off on both sides, and they reach the free-throw line at great speed, have three-point range, and shoot efficiently and effectively from mid-range. One reason Terence Ross fits the Suns is that he averages more than 1.0 mid-range shots per game and shoots more than 50 percent, tied with Durant, Booker and Paul. Since his day off, Ayton has averaged 1.1 mid-range shots per game, dropping to 37.8 percent.

When Durant is on the team, the Suns may have more free throw opportunities, and when Durant is on the team, the team will also shoot more from three-point range. This gives the Suns a more complete outside offense, but they also have their own characteristics in mid-range. The Clippers will miss George's height the most in this series. For the Clippers, there are too many small, unstable, unreliable outside defenders on the court at the same time.

Winner: Sun

Pitch X factor

I'm a football fan and whenever I can, I connect sports. For example, the part I evaluate free throws does not just refer to the ability to create fouls, but includes these abilities: making free throws (game scoring), fast attack (back defense), moving from attack to defense (coverage), speed (tempo) and depth (personnel). Just as the surprise in football is a factor, but has not yet risen to a level that greatly affects the attack and defense, the surprise in basketball is also a factor, although it is not as important as the efficiency of the offensive and defensive ends of the half.

The Suns (79.3%) and Clippers (79.2%) shot nearly the same from the free throw line. Both teams are trying to play faster, but neither team has averaged fewer fast-break points per game than the Suns during that time. The Clippers' transition from offense to defense wasn't great, as only five teams conceded more points than the Clippers on break, but the Suns and Clippers are Crouching Dragons in this regard.

The Clippers have better bench depth than the sun and that would be a boost. Powell alone can score more points than the entire bench. Both Mann and Mason Plumlee started before All-Star break this season. Covington and Hyland have both been less consistent in the rotation, but they can both be useful in this series.

The Suns' bench is somewhat limited. Ross is a good shooter. Shamet is a better shooter with some playmaking, but he's very limited inside the three-point line (36.2 percent shooting after break). Craig may often alternate with Okogie; His best attacking position is in the bottom corner.

Winner: Clippers

instructor

Williams won the American Basketball Coaches Association's Coach of the Year award in 2021, defeated the Clippers in the Western Conference Finals that same year, and then won NBA Coach of the Year in 2022. He was an excellent head coach who won half of his 8 playoff series.

Lew has a 12-3 record as head coach, including winning the 2016 NBA championship in Cleveland. After that championship, Lue had to hatch a game plan twice against the Golden State Warriors with Durant. In Lue's last playoff series, his Clippers lost to Williams' Suns. In the three series losses in the playoffs, the team lineup was a disadvantage for Lou.

But that will again be a problem for Lu. He doesn't have George, just as he doesn't have Leonard in 2021. And Durant had stronger teams in 2017 and 2018.

It wasn't the best year for both managers. Lue's ability to focus on one team in the playoffs may allow him to bring out the best in him, but Monty's challenge is only to bring a team with overflowing talent, and the Suns have yet to lose under Durant. On the other hand, the Clippers have struggled to score and defend well throughout the season, and even in every quarter. This will be the most challenging first-round playoff game of Coach Lu's career.

Winner: Sun

Intangible factors

When the two teams met in February, the Clippers were fourth and the Suns fifth. And after the All-Star Day off, the tide turned around.

The good thing for both teams is that the journey is not a problem. They are in the same time zone. The Clippers are the oldest team in the league and have had poor performance in the early games. The series will likely start and end in Phoenix, with the first game taking place on Sunday at a time to be determined and the seventh game in Phoenix.

The Suns are well rested, fitter and have a home-field advantage in this series. The Suns beat the understaffed Clippers two seasons ago, which also gave them confidence. Both teams made massive changes to their rotations in February through deals and buyout signings.

But the Suns didn't have many setbacks under Durant. They don't need to respond to failure. Maybe in this series they don't need it. But the Clippers have certainly been put to the test together, enduring a five-game losing streak since Westbrook joined the team, and George was sidelined by a knee injury that would threaten the entire season. Lue also led the Clippers to a playoff series victory while trailing 2-0. But the Clippers will be in a tough situation, and the Suns will start the series with a clear logistical advantage.

Which team are you more optimistic about winning the series?