Some time ago, the crow told everyone about some reactions of Internet public opinion on the Taiwan side after Honduras broke off "diplomatic relations" with the Taiwan authorities and established diplomatic relations with the People's Republic of China. However, many friends said that they still do not know much about the country itself, and today the crow will talk about it.
Before the crow has already "named" many (former) "countries with diplomatic relations" of the Taiwan authorities, it is not difficult to come to a feeling from looking at it: "husband and wife" are not deceptive, as long as they are still bound to the "diplomatic relations" of the Taiwan authorities for one day, how can they not look like a "normal country", and most of them "look alike" - the national conditions have a high degree of similarity.
From the situation of the country of Honduras, it is also possible to paint a picture of the group of "countries with diplomatic relations" of the authorities (formerly), especially the traditional "pro-Taiwan" circle in Central America.
1
The Republic of Honduras is located in northern Central America, bordered by the Caribbean Sea to the north, the Gulf of Fonseca in the Pacific Ocean to the south, Nicaragua and El Salvador to the east and south, and Guatemala to the west. The country has a land area of 112,000 square kilometers, roughly equivalent to Hunan Province, with a population of about 10.11 million.
Between the 4th and 7th centuries, western Honduras was one of the centers of Maya civilization. In 1502, after Columbus arrived here, Honduras began to communicate with the outside world, but it also attracted invaders. After the Spanish invasion in 1524, Honduras became a colony and came under the jurisdiction of (Spanish) Guatemala.
Three centuries later, on September 15, 1821, Honduras declared its independence, but regime changes were frequent. In the 157 years from 1821 to 1978, there were 137 coups, an average of more than one in one year, so there has been no stable environment for development.
As a result, Honduras is one of the least developed countries in Latin America. Agriculture is the leading industry of the national economy, and the industrial base is relatively weak. With a GDP of $29.657 billion in 2022 and a GDP per capita of only $2,831, 60% of households in the country had a daily income of less than $3.8 in 2016.
(About 100,000 refugees in Honduras try to cross the U.S.-Mexico border into the U.S. each year.)
Accompanied by serious social problems, Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador in the "Northern Triangle" of Central America, have highly similar social problems.
The first is violent crime. In 2018, the domestic murder rates (per 100,000 people) in Wei, Sahara and Hong were 22.5, 52 and 38.9 respectively, which is consistently the highest homicide rate in the world. And that's the numbers after their hard-line policies have led to a decline in murder rates in recent years. The highest peaks reached by these three countries on this data were 45.4 (2009), 105.2 (2015), and 83.8 (2011).
Then there is the problem of drugs. Drug trafficking is considered to be the biggest driver behind violent crime. According to the latest United States estimates, 93 per cent of cocaine produced in South America has flowed into the United States through the Central America/Mexico corridor in the last two decades. The problem is particularly acute in Honduras, where several former presidents or their relatives have been implicated in drug-related offences. In November 2018, Juan Antonio Hernández, the younger brother of former President Hernandez, was arrested in Miami, United States, on drug trafficking charges, and he himself was accused of accepting bribes from drug cartels.
(Hernández, former President of Honduras)
Then there's the problem of gangs. According to statistics, there are more than 550 large and small gangs in the "Northern Triangle" area, with a total of more than 60,000 members.
It is not difficult to see that these serious social problems are closely related and cause and effect each other. The root cause lies in the sluggish socio-economic development of the country, the lack of effective means of livelihood among the people, and the natural emergence of a large number of illegal existences.
In terms of geographical relations, "close to the United States" is not "backed by a tree", but purely a blood-sucking tumor. In order to control its own "backyard", the United States has created an institution called the "Organization of American States", ostensibly to strengthen cooperation among countries in the Americas, but in fact to use this organization to control American countries and subvert the regimes of "disobedient" countries.
Although the phrase "too far from heaven and too close to the United States" is common throughout Latin America, South America is a bit far away after all, and the Central American and Caribbean regions are the real "doorstep of the United States" and are the most affected.
(Flag of the Organization of American States)
For example, after Nicaragua elected left-wing President Ortega, the United States and Europe actually directly did not agree with the result, but asked Nepal to re-elect, which made Ortega very angry, not only did not participate in the US-led Summit of the Americas, but later withdrew from the Organization of American States and directly did not play with the United States.
In this context, these countries often have a situation where the government lies flat, when the comprador only makes profits for itself, the people struggle below the poverty line, coups are frequent, violence is rampant, drug dealers are rampant, and ordinary people either choose to flee or survive in hardship.
(Honduran people)
2
Whether it is the "Northern Triangle" mentioned earlier, or the neighboring countries of Honduras, almost all of them have served or are in the presence of the Taiwan authorities' "countries with diplomatic relations." Just after Honduras established diplomatic relations with the People's Republic of China, six of the 13 remaining "countries with diplomatic relations" of the Taiwan authorities are still concentrated in Central America. It's a great spectacle.
On the one hand, this is the result of political intervention by the United States in the region through its strong control. On the other hand, it was the Taiwan authorities' "gold dollar diplomacy" offensive that had "outstanding effects" on the national conditions of Central American countries.
"Golden dollar diplomacy", simply put, is to spend money to buy. A fixed time every year to directly "send money" to the corresponding country in order to maintain bilateral relations. However, because they spend real money to buy it, the Taiwan authorities do not have the financial resources to buy big countries, after all, the asking price is too high and they cannot afford to play, so they can only buy those "small countries." And Central America, which is easy to be controlled by the United States, the national economy is in a mess, completely without normal "hematopoietic" ability, and the amount of money spent can be affordable, has become the main target.
(Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Belize, Guatemala and other countries in Central America are or have been "diplomatic relations" with the Taiwan authorities.)
For example, during the period when Honduras maintained "diplomatic relations" with the Taiwan authorities, Taiwan had to give Hong $50 million in "aid" every year. And Honduras is still a relatively large country among these "countries with diplomatic relations" in Taiwan, what small countries such as Palau need less funds, choose such a country to develop "diplomatic relations", after all, less money is spent, Taiwan can afford it that year.
However, the "golden dollar diplomacy" has been implemented to this day, gradually entering a "dead end".
One of the big problems is the growing "comparison". In 2021, when Lithuania provoked China on the Taiwan issue, the Taiwan authorities hurriedly sent a large wave of people to Lithuania, wanting to pull it into their "diplomatic relations". At that time, the condition given by the Taiwan side was to "aid" 1.2 billion US dollars, and then import a large amount of Lithuanian rum, but even so, in the end, Lithuania only set up a representative office in Taiwan.
However, the incident later reached the ears of the Honduran side, which greatly upset them. Because Lithuania is only a small country with a territory of only 65,000 square kilometers and a population of less than 3 million. Honduras has twice the territory of Lithuania and more than three times the population, but the Taiwan authorities give only a measly $50 million a year. Compared with the $1.2 billion that Taiwan threw to Lithuania at one time, it is equivalent to more than 20 years of aid to Hong, and the latter, as a "country with diplomatic relations" for many years, naturally feels unhappy.
What's more, Honduras is so poor, and Lithuania is richer, it stands to reason that more should be given to Honduras.
(Street view of Tegucigalpa, capital of Honduras)
Therefore, Honduras took this opportunity to ask the Taiwan authorities to increase the annual "aid" to $100 million and reduce part of the loan. To be honest, this price is very "fair", because Honduras' annual trade with the latter without establishing diplomatic relations with the latter is about 1.6 billion US dollars, and the annual tariff is more than 100 million yuan. And in order to maintain "diplomatic relations" with the Taiwan authorities, Hong cannot enjoy normal trade with the mainland, and this loss is more than three times more than 100 million...
But the Taiwan authorities refused. It's not because they can't afford it, it's the chain reaction that scares them. At that time, including Honduras, the Taiwan authorities had 14 "countries with diplomatic relations", and Honduras was not the largest of them, the largest was Paraguay, with a territory area of more than 400,000 square kilometers. Honduras is asking for $100 million, should Paraguay ask for more aid, and other countries such as Guatemala are also asking for a doubling of the same amount? Feeding a Honduras may be a trivial matter, and once these dozen or so begin to compare, it will be a bottomless pit that the Taiwan authorities simply cannot afford.
3
Won't this kind of "bottomless pit" of eating money, the "dung pit country" in the mouth of the king, become a burden for China to establish diplomatic relations with us?
This has to talk about another and more fundamental reason why the Taiwan authorities' "gold dollar diplomacy" cannot be sustained.
The development of modern countries, relying only on "blood transfusion" to give money directly, is no longer good. You can't see that like Haiti, the whole world can't feed it, and in the end, it can force all five good people to rebel, and unanimously scold its government for corruption and incompetence.
(It is not possible for the Chinese side to make such harsh language)
As we mentioned earlier, Honduras once backhanded the Taiwan authorities for 100 million yuan, but even if it can get it, it is a "loss", because the development of normal trade with the mainland is several times this amount, not counting the fact that further cooperation can promote the high-quality development of the national economy in the fields of infrastructure and informatization.
The "gold dollar diplomacy" of the Taiwan authorities is like continuing to provide drugs to an addict, saying that it is "helping" him, but in fact it will only make the latter dependent on it, continue to lie down and smoke a big cigarette, and then reach out for it after smoking. And the real way to save him should be to help him quit drugs, find a regular businessman, and gradually live a "normal person" life.
Therefore, it is not difficult to understand why the vast majority of the painting styles are abnormal in any "country with diplomatic relations" of the Taiwan authorities - if you do not cut off this "drug supply and marketing chain", you will always be a waste!
Although a country like Honduras is not rich in production, it has comparative advantages in its agricultural products such as coffee and bananas, as well as natural resources such as gold, silver, copper, lead and zinc. Whether it is developing economic and trade relations with China or the development potential of its own national economy, it is by no means a pool of stagnant water.
The mainland has always adopted such an economic solution method for the "countries with diplomatic relations" with the Taiwan authorities, and there is no and no need to rely on "gold dollar diplomacy" like the Taiwan authorities.
(See watermark for source)
The diplomatic relations exchanged for the "bidding" of direct money are not destined to be stable, and the Taiwan authorities will not be able to turn their faces again one day if they pay more money; From another point of view, the mainland and Taiwan are "bidding," but it is not who gives more money and who can promote the development of the corresponding country.
Therefore, for these "countries with diplomatic relations" of the Taiwan authorities in Latin America, we are also actively using the "Belt and Road" and the "Maritime Silk Road" to strengthen relations with them.
By 2019, 19 Latin American countries had signed memorandums of understanding with China on the "Belt and Road", including Panama, Dominica, El Salvador and other countries with "diplomatic relations" of the Taiwan authorities.
(On March 26, Foreign Minister Qin Gang and Foreign Minister Hong Reina signed a communiqué on the establishment of diplomatic relations)
For example, after El Salvador "severed diplomatic relations" with the Taiwan authorities in August 2018 and established diplomatic relations with the mainland, trade has grown extremely rapidly. In 2020, the trade volume between China and Sahara was about US$1.1 billion, and by 2021, the trade volume between the two sides reached US$1.73 billion, a year-on-year increase of 55.9%; By 2022, China has overtaken the EU to become El Salvador's third-largest source of imports.
The direct benefits and long-term benefits brought by this are far from being comparable to the money given by Taiwan's "gold dollar diplomacy", and there is no doubt about how to choose watermelon sesame.
This is a job that cannot be done not only by the Taiwan authorities, but also by the United States, which is the "boss." Decades of deindustrialization in the United States have turned the United States into a country that relies on finance to eat, not only the demand for raw materials is sluggish, but also a major exporter in some aspects of agricultural products and energy. In the near future, China is bound to become Latin America's largest trading partner. It's clear who the better partner is.
(Abandoned U.S. factory)
In this sense, more and more countries are promoting "de-dollarization", promoting Shai-Iran reconciliation, and the Taiwan authorities' "countries with diplomatic relations" gradually "clearing zero", these are all changes in the same direction in today's world pattern.
Resources:
Penghe: Vulnerability analysis of small countries
Yan Wu: In Honduras, why did the people flee one after another
Yuan Dongzhen: Perspectives on Honduras from the Changing Political Traditions of Latin America "June 28 Coup D'état"
Xinhua Daily Telegraph: The solution to the Honduran crisis cannot bypass the constitutional framework