The factors for the overall situation of this season's regular season MVP are basically set.
As last year, it was again the three elders - Jokic, Embiid and Giannis - who competed for the lead.
The regular season MVP is nothing more than records, statistics, topics and expectations.
Record, the Bucks locked the league first today, the Nuggets locked the first place in the West today, the 76ers third in the East, and are expected to rush to the second place in the East.
Giannis> Jokic ≥ Embiid.
Stats, Giannis 63 games, averaging 31+12+6+1+1 per game.
Embiid 65 games, averaging 33+10+4+1+2 per game.
Jokic plays 68 games, averaging 25+12+10+1+1 per game.
Rough data has its own strengths.
High-order data, WS is Jokic> Embiid > Giannis.
BPM is Jokic> Embiid > Giannis.
VORP is Jokic> Embiid > Giannis.
PER is Jokic> Embiid > Giannis.
EPM is Jokic> Embiid > Giannis.
RAPTORS 538 ARE JOKIC> Embiid > Giannis.
A digression:
All kinds of high-order data, Jokic is basically the first; EMBIID IS SECOND IN RAPTORS, EPM, PER, BPM, AND THIRD IN WS AND VORP. In short, they are basically the top two.
Giannis ranks relatively low in the high-level data.
Another detail that wasn't good for Embiid:
Embiid played 65 games and the team went 43-22.
Embiid missed 14 games and the team went 9-5.
Jokic played 68 games, with the team 48-20.
Jokic missed 11 games, and the Nuggets went 4-7.
So although Embiid's statistics are excellent recently, in terms of the entire season's statistics, attendance and influence, it is still Jokic> Embiid > Giannis.
So far, the data and results are clear at a glance.
However, Embiid should be sure to win the MVP.
He's been doing well lately, with 52 points in the first two days being important — and end-of-season performances in particular will affect voters' judgments, and you should remember that at the end of the 2017 season, Harden's long-standing battle against Harden locked the MVP with a triple-double of 50 points, 16 rebounds and 10 assists against the Nuggets — while Jokic played just 24 minutes in the past ten days.
But the most crucial factor is not Embiid, but Embiid's opponents: Jokic and Giannis - who have won the last four regular-season MVPs.
Embiid hasn't got it yet.
Jordan averaged 33+7+6 in the 1993 regular season, with the Bulls winning 57; But regular season MVP, he lost to Barkley, who averaged 26+12+5 in 62 wins.
The league's strongest that year was still Jordan – as evidenced by Jordan's later defeat of Barkley, but the MVP went to Barkley?
Because Jordan has won two consecutive championships before: in 1991, Jordan won his second regular season MVP with 61 wins, and in 1992, he won the MVP with 67 wins.
In fact, when Jordan voted in 1993, he not only lost to Barkley, but also to Big Dream - 55 wins averaging 26+13+4 per game.
Jordan has won two terms, but Barkley and Big Dream have not won it.
In 2004-06, Nash won consecutive regular season MVP.
Especially in the 2005-06 season: Nash's Suns won 54 and averaged 19+4+11 per game; Dirk's Mavericks won 60 and averaged 27+9+3 per game. How can Nash beat Dirk? Because the sun was missing Stoudemire, and Joe Johnson and Ah Q were lost, everyone thought the sun was over, and Nash brought it up. Reelected.
The following year, the 2006-07 season, Nash took the Suns 61 wins, averaging 19+4+12 per game, which was better than last season; Dirk averaged 25+9+3 and Mavericks 67 wins.
The numbers are similar, and the Mavericks still win 6 more games than the Suns, but this year it was Dirk who won the regular season MVP.
Not only because 67 wins are really remarkable, but also because the Suns lineup is complete, and there is less aura of "leading the remnant team to play well"; All the more because Nash has won two consecutive terms before, and Dirk has not won it.
LeBron won two MVPs in 2010 before going to the South Coast.
In the 2010-11 season, LeBron averaged 27+8+7 and 58 wins per game; Ross 25+4+8, Bulls 62 wins. As a result, Ross won the MVP. Then in the Eastern Conference finals, LeBron and Wade teamed up to overwhelm Ross.
Interestingly, this season, Dwight is with the Magic, averaging 22+14+1 per game, 52 wins for the team, and the MVP vote is still above LeBron.
- Are Dwight and Ross really better than LeBron this year? Not necessarily; But because LeBron's "decision" in the previous summer affected his media image to some extent, and because he has won two terms.
In the 2016-17 season, Wilson and Harden competed for MVP with skyrocketing statistics, and it is well known.
Few people realize that Curry averaged 25+5+7 per game that year and the Warriors won 67. However, the MVP vote was only in sixth place.
Even Thomas Jr. averaged 29+3+6 per game that year, the team won 53, and the MVP votes were above Curry.
It's simple: Curry won the regular-season MVP the year before with a 73 win.
Curry himself put it this way in the spring of 2017:
"It's not worth rushing 74 wins... It's really not worth it. You just need to go back to the finals. ”
As for the MVP, he knows that everything is a topic. "Every December, whoever wins and performs well is the favourite; If you're not on the hot list every December, you're in trouble. Thomas Jr., for example, led the team to the first place in the East, but he was not an MVP favorite last December, so it was difficult for him to compete with Westbrook and Harden, who were leading from the start. For me, last year and the year before that, too. ”
In the 2020-2021 season, Giannis averaged 28+11+6 in 61 games, and the Bucks were 46-26, third in the East.
Embiid averaged 29+11+3 in 51 games, Philadelphia 49-23, first in the East.
Giannis scored, rebounded, assisted, blocked, and steal totals all above Embiid throughout the season, but Embiid overwhelmed Giannis on the MVP vote.
It's because Philadelphia has won three more games, and because Giannis himself has just won two regular-season MVPs.
Of course, there are also some two-in-a-row MVPs who fail to make three consecutive MVPs because the opponent is really strong - for example, Duncan failed to make three consecutive MVPs in 2004 because the regular season KG that year was really impeccable; For example, in 1991, the Magicians did not have three consecutive because Jordan was invincible in 1991.
But this season's regular season, Jokic and Embiid are in a similar situation at this time - the record data is not widespread.
Jokic now has to face Jordan in 1993, Nash in 2007, LeBron in 2011, Curry in 2017 and Giannis in 2021:
When the data is similar to the record, those who have already won the MVP are easily deducted points by the judges.
Of course, there are exceptions. In an era when the media voted for MVP — Chamberlain and Russell were voted by players — only one person had been MVP three times in a row:
Bird, 1985-86 season.
But that year was special:
That year, Bird averaged 26+10+7 per game, 50%+42%+90% efficiency, 67 wins, and the only home game in history to be 40-1.
Bird himself was adjusting with injuries at the beginning of the season, but after entering February 1986, he basically went crazy: 27+13+8 per game in February, including 47 points, 14 rebounds and 11 assists in the famous left-handed battle in Portland on Valentine's Day; Entering March, he averaged 31+9+7 and shot 56%+54%+90%.
The data, record and word of mouth are far ahead of others, so three times in a row.
The price of three consecutive is ...
Next season, Bird is still averaging 28+9+8, efficiency 53%+40%+91%, and the Celtics 59 wins.
Opposite the Lakers, the Magic averaged 24+6+12 per game, and the Lakers won 65.
Jordan averaged 37+5+5 and the Bulls won 40.
As a result, the MVP votes were released, Magic 733, Jordan 449, Bird 271.
The Magic received 65 first votes, Jordan 10 and Bird one.
It's because Magic and Jordan played too well that year, but also because Bird has won three times before.
So, according to the record at this time:
The Bucks > the Nuggets ≥ Philadelphia (Philadelphia may still overtake the Nuggets, but the Nuggets lock in first place in the West).
StatsJokic≥ Embiid> Giannis.
If none of the three have won an MVP before, then this season's MVP is most likely Jokic.
This is also the estimate of the relentless data site BBR:
They believe that at the moment Jokic, Embiid and Giannis have MVP probabilities of 60%, 14% and 9%, respectively.
But because it involves:
"Jokic and Giannis have won four terms before!"
"Only Bird has been MVP three times in history, and if Jokic wins MVP three times this year and doesn't win the title, what will the media think?"
"Jokic this season is not behind Embiida, and Embiid did play the best season of his career (which is not Jokic's best season), has won the scoring championship for consecutive years, and has been second in the MVP vote for two consecutive years."
Coupled with recent performances - Embiid is powerful, Giannis and Jokic are both playing a break.
The MVP should be Embiid's.
What he needs to do now is to get Philadelphia to win — even though it can't catch up with the Bucks — over the Nuggets in order to be sure of it.