The hottest thing recently is the inner monologue of a fund manager: don't buy artificial intelligence, poor performance, be scolded, you don't chop others, just wait for death; Buying artificial intelligence and properly chasing high may be looking for death. Anyway, the horizontal and vertical are all death, it is better to fight and die, wealth is in danger.
This monologue is not the first time I have heard of it, the last time a similar version appeared was in July and August last year, when institutions ran into the new energy sector. At that time, TMT and computer industries were rarely involved in public offerings because of their extremely poor performance.
In this spring, TMT's enthusiasm was completely ignited, and gaming, cloud computing, communications, media, and big data bulls came out one after another, riding the dust and marveling at the market. The proportion of turnover also continues to set records, with the turnover exceeding 40% for the first time at the end of March, and yesterday's turnover accounted for 46.16%, and AI has gradually deduced into All In.
The vast majority of this wave of artificial intelligence public offerings, like the previous special estimates, are empty. For the medium special estimate, it is generally believed that it is only to repair the valuation, and everyone can guess the end of the story, and there is not much room for imagination. But artificial intelligence is different, this is the revolution of the Internet era, beyond your imagination, like the Internet technology market in 2015. Many garbage companies can double in a short period of time, as long as your story is vivid enough, you are a bright new star. Unlike the unilateral rise of artificial intelligence, the recent new energy and medicine are really unrecognized, the market Matthew effect is becoming more and more obvious, drought death, waterlogging death.
Among the many funds, there is a more typical is the selection of financing industry trends, I also noticed this fund yesterday, the net value is estimated to be nearly 6% different from the actual net value, which is almost the original position changed, it took only two days to change the sky, the net value of the fund turned from negative to positive, and 13% rose out of the stock in two days.
You must know that this fund has been heavily invested in new energy before, and TMT (computer, communication and media) adds up to less than 2%.
Since the beginning of this year, the new energy sector has opened high and low, and the two leading leaders of Ningwang and Xiaodi have also risen weakly, with many resistances, and there are signs of recuperation. The performance of this fund in the first three months is almost synchronous with new energy.
And the change of fund manager on March 6 has become a watershed in performance, and Li Jin, a new high-quality student at Tsinghua,
As a new generation of fund managers, participating in the management of funds for the first time, he made a drastic readjustment of the fund in just a few days, and he was still chasing the hottest artificial intelligence sector. In terms of short-term performance, he made the right bet. It really responded well to the monologue of the fund manager, and the wealth was in danger.
I also have reason to believe that such position adjustments are definitely not an individual, but universal. The outflow of funds comes from the new energy and pharmaceutical sectors. For this wave of investors who step on artificial intelligence, it is very uncomfortable. But what is more uncomfortable is that investors who hold new energy and medicine in their hands, whether to throw away to chase high artificial intelligence, especially entangled and tormented.
I would like to make a few comments on this issue:
The first is that for artificial intelligence, the current popularity is already unprecedented, and the turnover has now reached 46%. This wave of forced short market, institutions must not sit still, the public offering has entered the market, is bound to push TMT to the next climax, how much will the turnover reach by then? At that time, the entire market will be artificial intelligence, and there will be no other theme hype. As we all know, April is the performance disclosure period, abandoning companies with excellent performance fundamentals and brainlessly chasing the sea of stars that have not yet landed. If a good company's stock price falls endlessly and cannot raise funds, will it affect the entity? Will those invisible hands intervene then?
Another potential risk to artificial intelligence is security, with frequent data breaches. OpehAI began a large-scale ban at the end of last month, and a small number of regions have already banned ChatGPT. In fact, artificial intelligence is in line with our policy of developing the digital economy, and I also believe that this wave of public offering will not be a short-term behavior. There are many related fields that have risen to the sky, such as computing power, games, and so on. The popularity of the sector will definitely continue this year, but it is also gradually differentiated, and the rise should be avoided as much as possible. For the data economy, the next focus should be on the landing of the industry, and the landing-related and self-controllable should be software and data management.
The second is the new energy that has fallen endlessly recently, I listened to the roadshow of HSBC Jinxin Lu Bin a while ago, and he gave this view on new energy: I think I am more excited, as if I saw an investment opportunity like the past three years. But maybe in the next quarter or two, everyone has to have a (downward fluctuation) psychological preparation or psychological expectation.
Lu Bin's involvement in the new energy sector is relatively early, and he has also brought very good returns to the people. When new energy continues to be sluggish, Lu Bin's words have indeed given a lot of confidence.
From the perspective of valuation, the current ten-year quantile of carbon neutral PE-TTM is 29%, which is in a relatively cheap position.
From the perspective of performance, as the 2030 carbon peak goal approaches, whether it is wind power photovoltaic or energy storage, it is very imaginative, and the story is no less exciting than artificial intelligence. Judging from the recently disclosed annual report data, companies have shown strong growth. For new energy, there is really no need to panic too much at present.
There is also external stimulus news, that is, many countries are ready to significantly reduce oil, crude oil has jumped from 70 knives a barrel to 85 knives a barrel in a short period of time, and a new round of new and old energy games may also kick off.
Finally, there is medicine, and the worst thing is medicine, which is true. In 2021, several difficult brothers and brothers have ushered in a big reversal. Like Zhongqi, it embarked on a counterattack after a 70% plunge, and the largest increase in the past year has exceeded 70%.
Baijiu also fell by 45% in the past two years, bottomed out in November last year, and the largest increase was also 50%, and it took less than three months to fill in the decline of the past two years, which can be called a big A "trust".
And medicine, when it falls, it is not less than others, and when it rises, it does not move for half a day. A number of pharmaceutical-themed fund managers have become the daily targets of the people's daily complaints. Medicine should not be nervous, our population base is huge, the pharmaceutical market space is very large, these are all certain.
CSI All Index has a quartile point of less than 5% in the past ten years, which is an extremely low position. It can also be seen from the disclosure data of the 2022 fund annual report that the proportion of public positions in the pharmaceutical sector is also gradually increasing, with the proportion of positions in 2022Q3 being 4.0%, and the proportion of positions in 2022Q4 reaching 5.02%.
Not only public fundraising, but also the people are supporting the pharmaceutical sector with practical actions. Even if she loses 27.7 billion Gülen, CEIBS Medical 2022Q4 she manages still maintains a net subscription share of 53 million shares, while being a keyboard warrior scolding Gülen, on the other hand, her body is still very sincere, using real money to apply for her fund.
Finally, I still hope that everyone will try not to chase higher, unlike fund managers. Fund managers bet on the track to make a lot of money, and the base people often keep up when they are skyrocketing, and they may only make small profits, and more are taking over the market at a high level. When we choose a fund, we still have to keep our eyes open.
Reminder: The funds mentioned in this article are purely cases, and the views expressed in this article do not constitute any investment or advice.