In ancient China, there was a strange but very regular phenomenon in the great unified dynasty of Junzhu's autocracy, that is, their national work, that is, the dynasty's life expectancy was no more than 300 years, and the longest Tang Dynasty was only 289 years. And the late period of each dynasty is basically full of wars, famines, and plagues, very similar, as if there is a mysterious hand, according to a fixed routine, controlling the fate of each dynasty. What's the secret here?
In the last century, Mr. Zhu Kezhen, an academician and meteorologist of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, analyzed and deduced the behind-the-scenes reasons for this strange phenomenon after studying a large number of historical materials, phenology, Fang Zhi and other materials. He thinks the driver of all this is climate. Around 1000 BC, the first cold period in history arrived, and the chaos of the Spring and Autumn Warring States began. This is the first important impact of climate change on Chinese history.
Before, the area around the Central Plains was very warm and livable, and the two generations of Xia Shang had existed for a long time, how warm was it? During the Shang Dynasty, even tropical and subtropical animals such as elephants were common in the Central Plains, and even ordinary people's families had records of raising elephants. The nuclear weapons of the Shang Dynasty were a majestic and domineering elephant army, and Henan's abbreviation was the character "Yu" for a man leading an elephant. Since the Eastern Zhou Dynasty, whenever dynasties change and social unrest accompanies social unrest, that is, every two or three hundred years, the temperature is often 2-5 degrees lower than when the dynasty was prosperous. Some people say isn't it just a difference of a few degrees? As for causing dynastic changes? Then you don't understand how powerful he is.
Let's take the Yellow River Basin as an example, if the average annual temperature rises by 2 degrees, then Shandong, Shanxi, Henan and other places will become subtropical regions, becoming today's Liangguang and Yunnan, then crops can grow normally throughout the year, and even a variety of stubble. Conversely, for every 1 degree Celsius drop in average annual temperature, annual rainfall decreases by 100 milliliters. In ancient times, when watching the sky and eating, grain production also fell by 10%, and if it fell a few more degrees, this grain output could not be seen.
For the vast majority of farmers, once grain production decreases, they immediately face the problem of survival, and if they want to survive, they can only sell their land to landlords who still have surplus grain at home for food. Overnight, he changed from a free farmer to a tenant dependent on the landlord. And a round of land annexation made the landlords continue to grow, resulting in a confrontation with the emperor's military power. The peasants were caught between several layers of exploiting groups and subjected to repeated exploitation, until even slaves could not do it, so they could only rise up and make a big rebellion.
This is the cause of frequent peasant uprisings at the end of the dynasty, the rise of the powerful and the powerful, and the chaotic warlords. This is the change of the internal and external climate of the country, which also plays a huge role. A cooler climate means that the northern steppe area is degraded, so the nomads of the steppe also face the problem of reduced food. At this time, they began to invade the Central Plains, relying on waging wars to seize food and means of subsistence.
Historically, whether it is the Xiongnu, Turks, Khitan, Jurchens or Mongolians, the root cause of their large-scale southern invasions is inseparable from the food crisis caused by climate cooling. In this way, once the climate became cold and the production of grain and other materials was greatly reduced, the Central Plains Dynasty not only had its own national strength plummeted, but also faced the plundering war of the nomadic iron horses in the north. This has led to the end of the dynasties, which will always be in the double dilemma of internal worries and external troubles.
In addition, after the catastrophe, there is also great righteousness, and for ancient times, when medical conditions were limited, plague was an unsolvable problem. It is not uncommon for a plague that lasts for several years to halve the population. According to historical statistics, from the Western Han Dynasty to the end of the Qing Dynasty, there were more than 300 large-scale plagues recorded alone. The defeat of Cao Cao Chibi at the end of the Eastern Han Dynasty was actually due to the plague. At the end of the Ming Dynasty, the stormy Ming Empire was helpless in the desperate situation where the plague broke out along with the peasant uprising and the invasion of Manchuria.
Therefore, in the 5,000 years of climate change of Chinese civilization, the difference of one degree is often the vicissitudes of the sea. When the temperature was high, most of the Central Plains Dynasty was smooth and rainy, and the four seas returned to one prosperous era. And when the temperature was low, the three desperate ghosts of the Central Plains Dynasty were hungry, war, and the plague sounded the death knell of an empire on time and without hesitation. This cycle repeats as the temperature rises and falls.