(Report producer/author: Guotai Junan Securities, Shi Yan, Pang Junwen, Ma Minghong)
1. The charging pile industry is driven by new energy vehicles to usher in a period of rapid development
1.1. Diversification of charging pile products
Charging piles are an indispensable part of the rapid development of new energy vehicles. Charging piles are charging facilities for charging new energy vehicles, similar to fuel dispensers in gas stations, installed in public buildings and residential parking lots or charging stations, and can charge various models of electric vehicles according to different voltage levels. According to different standards, charging piles can be classified according to charging technology, installation location, installation method, and number of charging interfaces, and are currently mainly classified according to installation location and charging method.
Classified by installation location, it is mainly divided into public, private and private charging piles. Public charging pile is a charging pile that provides charging services for social vehicles, generally built in public parking lots, mainly relying on collecting service fees to make a profit. Special charging piles provide charging services for specific vehicles, such as buses, taxis, logistics vehicles and other operating vehicles, which are not open to the public and are generally installed in the parking yard of enterprises. Private charging piles are installed in private parking spaces in residential areas, and AC charging piles are only used by car owners.
Classified by charging mode, mainly divided into AC charging piles and DC charging piles. The AC charging pile is the slow charging pile, which needs to be converted to direct current by the on-board charger inside the electric vehicle to charge the car battery. Limited by the power of the on-board charger, the charging power is low, the charging time is longer, and it generally takes 5-8 hours to fully charge. It has the characteristics of small current, small pile body, flexible installation, mature technology, low cost, and is generally suitable for public parking lots, large shopping centers and community garages. DC charging pile is fast charging pile, without passing through the on-board charger, directly output DC power to charge the electric vehicle battery, using high voltage, charging power is large, charging time is generally less than 1 hour, the pile body is larger, the cost is higher, generally used for electric buses, electric cars, taxis, engineering vehicles and other fast DC charging.
The upstream of the charging pile industry chain is the charging pile hardware equipment and various components. Charging pile hardware equipment includes charging modules, distribution filter equipment, monitoring and billing equipment and battery maintenance equipment, etc., various components include contactors, connectors, electricity meters, display screens, shells, plugs and sockets, cables, charging guns, etc. The cost of hardware equipment of charging piles is the most important cost of charging piles, accounting for 93%; The cost of the charging module is the most important cost of the hardware equipment of the charging pile, accounting for about 50%.
1.2. New energy vehicles are booming, and the potential space for charging infrastructure is huge
The high prosperity of new energy vehicles has driven the rapid growth of demand for charging infrastructure. With the rapid growth of new energy vehicle ownership, there are higher requirements for the number of charging infrastructure and charging speed. At present, most of the charging places for electric vehicles are residential and working places, and the charging facilities that can quickly replenish power on the way are not perfect. To solve the problem of range anxiety and make electric vehicles as fast and convenient as traditional fuel vehicles, it is necessary to accelerate the construction of public charging facilities. In 2021, the global bus pile ratio is about 10:1, and 68% of the existing public charging piles are slow charging, and the power supply speed of slow charging piles is far less than fast charging, which cannot well meet the charging needs of electric vehicles, and the charging infrastructure needs to be accelerated. In addition, the continuous penetration of new energy vehicles will bring more incremental demand for private charging piles, and the market space for charging piles is broad
China's new energy vehicle sales still achieved rapid growth. In 2022, China's new energy vehicle sales will be 6.887 million units, a year-on-year increase of 93.4%, and the penetration rate will reach 25.6%, higher than the previous year's 12.1pcts, continuing explosive growth. In January 2023, due to the impact of subsidy withdrawal and the early Spring Festival, sales fell month-on-month, and in February showed a recovery trend, with sales reaching 525,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 55.9%. From the perspective of ownership, in 2022, China's car ownership will reach 319 million, and the number of new energy vehicles will be 13.1 million, with a penetration rate of only 4.1%. We believe that sales are expected to continue to grow rapidly in the future.
China's new energy vehicle sales still achieved rapid growth. In 2022, China's new energy vehicle sales will be 6.887 million units, a year-on-year increase of 93.4%, and the penetration rate will reach 25.6%, higher than the previous year's 12.1pcts, continuing explosive growth. In January 2023, due to the impact of subsidy withdrawal and the early Spring Festival, sales fell month-on-month, and in February showed a recovery trend, with sales reaching 525,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 55.9%. From the perspective of ownership, in 2022, China's car ownership will reach 319 million, and the number of new energy vehicles will be 13.1 million, with a penetration rate of only 4.1%. We believe that sales are expected to continue to grow rapidly in the future.
The development of the new energy vehicle market in the United States has accelerated. From 2018 to 2020, the development of the new energy automobile industry in the United States almost stagnated, and it was revitalized by the green energy policy proposed after Biden took office. In 2022, the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles in the United States was 986,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 49.2%, and the penetration rate reached 6.9%. In January and February 2023, sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the United States reached 103,000 units and 110,000 units, respectively, a year-on-year increase of 66.1% and 62.4%, respectively, and the monthly penetration rate continued to hit a record high, reaching 9.5% in February. Considering that the current penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the United States is still low, with the continuous investment of car companies and the continuous stimulation of policies, new energy models in the United States will continue to be enriched, infrastructure will continue to improve, and it is expected that sales are expected to usher in a substantial increase in 2023, becoming the fastest growing market in the world.
Global sales of new energy vehicles are expected to reach 14 million units in 2023. 1) From the perspective of the Chinese market, with the price reduction of Teslai to release demand and BYD's strong performance, China's new energy vehicle sales are expected to exceed 8.8 million units in 23 years, a year-on-year increase of 30%, 2) In the US market, with the implementation of the IRA plan to remove restrictions on model sales, it is expected to further stimulate sales demand, and the current penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the United States is less than 10%, with large room for improvement, and we expect that the overall sales volume in the United States in 23 years is expected to reach 1.8 million units, a year-on-year increase of more than 50%. 3) The European market has maintained relatively stable growth, with sales expected to reach 3 million units in 2023. The continued high prosperity of new energy vehicles will stimulate the demand for charging piles.
2. The global charging pile market is vast
2.1. The construction of charging piles in most countries and regions is not perfect
The number of public charging piles worldwide is growing rapidly. In 2021, there were nearly 1.8 million public charging piles worldwide, a year-on-year increase of about 40%, of which about one-third were fast charging piles. China is the world's largest market for new energy vehicles and densely populated, and actively develops charging infrastructure with the support of policies, so most of the world's charging piles are also located in China, and more than 40% of charging piles are fast charging piles, much higher than other regions. Europe ranks second in terms of the number of charging piles, with more than 300,000 slow charging piles and nearly 50,000 fast charging piles in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 30%. In 2021, there were 92,000 slow charging piles in the United States, a year-on-year increase of only 12%, the slowest growth in major markets, and only 22,000 fast charging piles, of which nearly 60% were Tesla Superchargers.
The number of charging piles in some areas does not fully match the number of new energy vehicles. The right vehicle pile ratio depends on the average driving distance and population density, and only a sufficient number of convenient charging piles can ensure the healthy development of the new energy automobile industry. Between 2015 and 2021, the proportion of electric vehicles per charging point remained relatively flat in China, South Korea and the Netherlands, with fewer than 10 vehicles per charging point. This reflects the charging infrastructure deployment matching the rate of EV inventory growth. The number of new energy vehicles in the United States and Norway has grown significantly faster than the number of public charging piles. In most countries, as the share of EV stock increases, the pile ratio is rising.
Many European countries do not meet the recommended standards for AFID. The Alternative Fuel Infrastructure Directive recommends that each EU Member State achieve the target of 10 light electric vehicles per public charging pile, that is, a 10:1 bus pile ratio, while each pure electric vehicle needs to be equipped with 1kW charging power; Each plug-in hybrid vehicle is equipped with 0.66kW charging power. However, the EU average bus pile ratio of 14:1 in 2021 is up from 11:1 in 2020 and also above the recommended standard. Only a small number of countries, such as the Netherlands, achieved this goal, with a bus pile ratio of 5:1, and most countries failed to meet the standard, such as Iceland, Denmark, Norway, Germany, Sweden, the United Kingdom, Spain and other countries with bus pile ratios of even more than 20:1.
The global average for 2021 is 10 electric vehicles per charging pile, each corresponding to 2.4kW of charging power, which has met the recommended standards of AFID. Among them, the level of charging infrastructure construction in China has exceeded the global average, with a bus pile ratio of 7:1 and a charging power of 3.8kW per vehicle. The construction of charging stations in the United States also needs to be improved. In 2021, there were only 50,000 charging stations and 13 charging points in the United States. About 8% of the population lives 10km away from the nearest public charging station, and an additional 5,000 charging stations will need to be built to reduce this to 0%. From the perspective of charging type, only 22,600 DC fast charging points out of 130,700 charging points, accounting for a relatively low percentage. In terms of distribution, only 17% of charging points are located on highways, 7% on intercontinental highways, most of the charging stations are located around densely populated cities on the east and west coasts, and less charging stations are distributed in the central region.
2.2. The policy strongly supports the construction of charging infrastructure
The deployment of charging infrastructure is critical to advancing vehicle electrification. Countries are strengthening charging infrastructure to meet the escalating needs of consumers, increasing investment in areas such as standardization, improved charging performance, and wider location coverage.
2.3. By 2030, charging piles will develop in the direction of popularization and intelligence
Charging piles will usher in tenfold rapid growth in ten years. According to the International Energy Agency, to support EV growth and meet the promised targets, the global charging infrastructure needs to be more than 12-fold by 2030, with more than 22 million EV charging stations installed each year. According to the IEA, the number of public charging piles will account for only 10% of the total capacity in 2030, but due to higher power, public charging piles will account for 40% of the installed capacity. In 2030, charging power demand may exceed 750TWh, and private charging stations can meet about 65% of energy demand.
China has long been the largest market for charging piles. Currently, private charging stations in homes or workplaces are the main source of charging in many countries. The availability of home chargers is a major determinant of private and public charging behavior. Access to residential charging largely depends on housing type and population group, and access to residential charging varies significantly between countries. According to the IEA, 70% of detached units in the United States have access to home charging, while rental apartments have access to as little as 10-20%. Chinese is dense, and most of them are high-rise residences, only about 40% of households can use residential parking lots, and fewer can install and use charging piles, so China will rely more on public charging piles. The IEA estimates that there will be 5.5 million public fast charging piles and 10 million public slow charging piles worldwide by 2030, with China having 4 million and 5.5 million respectively. In Europe and the United States, the share of electricity provided by private charging is expected to account for about 70% of the demand, and in China about half.
3. The development of China's charging pile industry has accelerated
3.1. The number of charging piles in mainland China has grown steadily
Driven by the downstream new energy vehicle market, the demand for charging piles in China is growing rapidly. With the rapid growth of terminal sales and penetration rate of new energy electric vehicles, the demand for charging piles for supporting equipment has grown rapidly. Moreover, the population and road characteristics of large population density and long highway mileage in mainland China put forward higher requirements for the number of domestic charging stations and charging piles and charging efficiency. The "14th Five-Year Plan" clarifies the construction goals of charging piles and provides important impetus for the development of charging pile industries in various provinces and cities. On January 21, 2022, the National Development and Reform Commission, the National Energy Administration and other ten departments recently issued the "Implementation Opinions on Further Improving the Service Guarantee Capacity of Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure", clarifying that by the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan", the mainland's electric vehicle charging guarantee capacity will be further improved, which can meet the charging needs of more than 20 million electric vehicles. Subsequently, 31 provinces and cities have successively issued a series of relevant policies and plans to provide important impetus for the development of China's charging pile industry, among which Beijing, Guangdong, Shanghai, Hainan and other provinces and cities have clearly planned the scale of charging pile construction in 2025, further promoting the rapid development of China's charging pile industry.
The construction of charging infrastructure in mainland China basically meets the demand for new energy vehicles. In 2022, the number of charging infrastructure in the mainland reached 5.21 million, the number of new energy vehicles was 13.1 million, and the vehicle-pile ratio was 2.5:1. From an incremental perspective, in 2022, the increase in mainland charging infrastructure will be 2.593 million units, new energy vehicle sales will be 6.887 million units, and the pile increment ratio will be 2.7:1. Among them, the number of public charging piles increased by 651,000 units, an increase of 91.6% year-on-year, and the increase in private charging piles built with vehicles was 1.942 million units, an increase of 225.5% year-on-year. The proportion of public charging piles fell to 34.5%. From the perspective of current type, the DC proportion of public charging piles is 42.4%.
3.2. The mainland public charging infrastructure construction areas and operators are relatively concentrated
Public charging infrastructure construction areas are relatively concentrated. The top ten provinces in terms of public charging pile ownership are Guangdong Province, Jiangsu Province, Zhejiang Province, Shanghai Municipality, Beijing Municipality, Hubei Province, Shandong Province, Anhui Province, Henan Province and Fujian Province, with a total of 73.1% of public charging piles built. Among them, the number of public charging piles in Guangdong Province is much higher than that in other provinces, with a total of 383,000 public charging piles in Guangdong Province as of the end of December 2022. The top ten provinces in terms of swap station ownership are Beijing, Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Jilin, Shandong, Sichuan, Hubei and Hebei. Among them, the number of exchange stations in Beijing ranked first with 289.
Most of the public charging pile holdings are concentrated in the top 15 operators. As of the end of December 22, the TOP5 accounted for 69.8%, the TOP10 accounted for 86.3%, and the TOP15 accounted for 93.8% among the public charging pile operators. Among them, Special Call, Star Charging, Cloud Fast Charging, and State Grid operated 363,000 units, 343,000 units, 259,000 units, and 196,000 units respectively, ranking the top four, and their share was significantly higher than that of other manufacturers. And in the six categories of public charging pile, special charging pile, DC pile, AC pile, total charging power and charging power, the TOP5 charging operators have a high proportion.
3.3. Eight ministries and commissions issued documents to support the development of the new energy vehicle and public charging pile market
In February 2023, the eight departments of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the Notice on Organizing and Carrying out the Pilot Work of the Pilot Zone for the Comprehensive Electrification of Vehicles in the Public Sector. In order to implement the strategic deployment of the Party Central Committee and the State Council of "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality", promote the in-depth implementation of the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)", promote the improvement of the electrification level of vehicles in the public sector, and accelerate the construction of a green and low-carbon transportation system, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Transport, together with the Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the Energy Bureau, and the Post Office, launched the pilot work of the pilot zone for the comprehensive electrification of public sector vehicles nationwide. Vehicles in the public sector include official cars, urban public transport, rental (including cruise rental and online taxi booking), sanitation, postal express, urban logistics and distribution, airport and other fields, and the pilot period is 2023-2025.
The total regional promotion target is 2.04 million units. After converting according to standard vehicles, the Notice gives reference targets for the promotion of new energy vehicles in 36 pilot areas, of which 11 tend to be promoted with 100,000 vehicles in Beijing, 60,000 vehicles in 11 regions including Shandong, and 20,000 vehicles in 14 regions including Hainan. The number of public charging stations corresponds to about 1 million. At present, the power of mainstream commercial fast charging piles is 100-120kw, and the power of charging piles for large vehicles such as buses is higher. Based on the average power of 120kw per charging pile, after conversion of standard piles, about 1 million new public charging piles will be required to complete the promotion target, and the new market size will be nearly 50 billion yuan. We believe that the Notice will play a leading and exemplary role, promote the healthy and rapid development of China's new energy vehicle and charging pile market, stimulate new energy vehicle consumption and industrial upgrading, and make the new energy industry one of the important supporting industries for China's economic growth.
The charging pile industry is expected to usher in rapid development under the stimulus of policies. From a quantitative point of view, the domestic vehicle pile ratio in 2022 is 2.5:1, which is still far from the target of 1:1 in China in 2020 in the "Guidelines for the Development of Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure (2015-2020)". The "Notice" takes public domain vehicles as a model and raises the goal of 1:1 vehicle pile ratio, which may effectively drive the growth of the charging pile market. From the perspective of technical development direction, the Notice clearly points out that charging piles above 180kW are converted into standard piles and multiplied by 1.1, supporting the development of charging piles in the direction of high-power DC fast charging. Under the joint effect of the two, the infrastructure construction of new energy vehicles will be gradually improved, and the problem of mileage anxiety will be solved to a certain extent, thereby driving the penetration rate of new energy vehicles to further increase.
It is expected that the number of charging piles in mainland China will increase by more than 80% year-on-year in 2023. The China Charging Alliance estimates that 3.4 million new charging piles for on-board accessories will be added to the mainland in 2023, with the number of units reached 6.812 million; 975,000 new public charging piles, including 565,000 AC charging piles, 410,000 DC charging piles, and 2,775,200 public charging piles, including 1,601,000 AC charging piles and 1,171,000 public DC charging piles; 60,000 new public charging stations were added, bringing the number of stations to 171,000. The growth rate of charging piles is significantly higher than that of new energy vehicles, and the ratio of vehicle piles will be further reduced.
4. Investment analysis
Charging piles are an indispensable part of the rapid development of new energy vehicles. The global new energy vehicle market is booming, with total sales exceeding 10.5 million units in 2022 and is expected to reach 14 million units in 2023. However, the construction of supporting charging infrastructure is slightly lagging behind, and there are only about 1.8 million public charging piles in the world in 2021, of which only one-third are fast charging piles. Between 2015 and 2021, only a small number of countries, such as China, South Korea, and the Netherlands, can match the growth of electric vehicle stock, and the ratio of vehicle piles in most countries is on the rise.
In Europe and the United States, there are problems such as high proportion of bus piles, uneven distribution, and low proportion of fast charging. In recent years, countries have introduced policies to strongly support the construction of charging infrastructure, and eight mainland ministries and commissions also issued a "notice" in February 2023 to stimulate the construction of charging infrastructure again, and about 1 million new public charging piles will be added to complete the promotion target, with a new market size of nearly 50 billion yuan. According to IEA, there will be 5.5 million public fast charging piles and 10 million public slow charging piles worldwide by 2030, and the power demand for charging in 2030 may exceed 750TWh, and the market space is broad. Enterprises with profound power electronics technology accumulation and have passed a number of product certifications at home and abroad are expected to win.
(This article is for informational purposes only and does not represent any investment advice from us.) For information, please refer to the original report. ）
Featured report source: [Future Think Tank] "Link"