At this year's two sessions, China for the first time wrote carbon peaking in 2030 and carbon neutrality in 2060 into the government work report, that is, by 2030, China's carbon dioxide emissions will no longer grow, and then emissions will gradually decline until 2060, the annual net carbon emissions will be zero. This national strategy seems to be only related to environmental protection, mainly for global warming, most of the online article analysis is mainly to emphasize the importance of the strategy to climate change, however, after a closer investigation, we found that the carbon peak strategy is far from so simple, which is likely to be the ultimate way for China to break through the malacca dilemma.
Figure 1 Carbon peaking is of strategic importance
Speaking of the Malacca dilemma, almost all The Chinese people have a deep understanding that the current world's main energy is oil, without oil there is no economic development, there is no country rich and strong, and the main oil-producing area is the Middle East, the oil in the Middle East to be transported to China, must pass through the Strait of Malacca thousands of miles away, and the control of this region is firmly in the hands of the Americans, Singapore is an ally of the United States, and Singapore Changi Air Base can be stationed at any time a large number of American aircraft. Once the Americans cut off the blockade in wartime, it will pose a serious threat to China's energy security, and once this cut-off blockade is long-term, the pain brought to our country and people will be very deep, although over the years, china has tried its best to disperse the oil import channels, but Russia's oil production, oil quality, and transportation costs are completely incomparable with the Middle East, which is the strait of Malacca dilemma.
Many people say that in order to solve the dilemma in the Strait of Malacca, we should build a few more aircraft carriers, rush straight into the Strait of Malacca in wartime, and break the US blockade, in fact, the mistake of this view is in two points, one is that even if we break through the Strait of Malacca, the Indian Ocean is far away from the Middle East, the Americans can cut us off at any point in the Malacca to Indian Ocean, and we have to break through the Andaman after we break through Malacca. When was the Niketbar Islands, the Coastline of India, the Red Sea, the Persian Gulf and even the coast of Africa? Second, even if the number of Aircraft Carriers in China is large enough, it is impossible to carry out ultra-long-range operations, because we lack the supply bases of the United States that are distributed globally, and the materials and ammunition carried by the aircraft carriers themselves cannot maintain long-term combat, and the United States cannot afford to fight a long-term decisive battle with the marine fleet. In fact, in the face of China's growing power in East Asia in recent years, the Americans have long wanted to change the battlefield and compete with China, once the decisive battle area is selected in the far sea area, the Americans believe that they have absolute certainty, and they are not afraid of Chinese, because once the offshore oil transportation line in the far sea is cut off, China has to attack to open up, because China's oil reserves do not exceed 100 days, and China cannot withstand the heavy blow to the society and economy caused by the paralysis of the whole country's automobiles and the suspension of machinery.
Figure 2 The Strait of Malacca is difficult to break through militarily
In fact, in order to solve the malacca dilemma, many academic organizations have conducted countless thematic discussions, and the final opinion is divided into two factions, one is the geopolitical faction, that is, it believes that it is necessary to take over the influence of Myanmar and Pakistan, enter the Indian Ocean by land, and avoid the Strait of Malacca to become a maritime power; the other is the new energy faction, advocating alternative fossil fuels and completely getting rid of the dependence on resources in the Middle East.
Geopolitical views have a long history, but not feasible, in recent decades, what we have seen is that Myanmar in the face of the Sino-US game has never absolutely chosen sides, but two ends of profit, especially after Aung San Suu Kyi came to power, the relationship with the United States gradually approached, even after the Min Nlaing Rak coup, now Myanmar is no longer the original Myanmar, this is not to blame the Burmese government, but the best way for all small countries to survive, Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said that "small countries do not want to choose sides between China and the United States." Although Pakistan has extremely friendly relations with china, and is even called Pakistan Railway, the United States is also an important military ally of Pakistan, and Pakistan has not abandoned the United States because of China, or even opened its airspace to fight terrorists for the United States, so the geopolitical views, although simple, have not seen particularly great results in the past few decades.
Figure 3 New energy sources are more reliable than geostrategic sources
The view of the new energy faction began to gradually occupy the mainstream after 2010, although the details of the national decision-making level are not clear, but we can see that the national team to promote subsidies for new energy vehicles and other products, coupled with the carbon peak, carbon neutrality target setting this year, it is obvious that it is to gradually phase out fossil fuels, all use electricity and other new energy to replace, and once this goal is achieved, China will transform from an extremely dependent country on energy imports into an energy self-sufficient country in one fell swoop.
Figure 4 The world's 20 largest hydropower stations
When it comes to new energy, the main new energy promoted in China is mainly hydropower, wind power and solar energy. Although hydropower is not new, but very environmentally friendly, and the source is China's big rivers, do not have to rely on foreign countries, production capacity is relatively high, China not only has the world's largest hydropower station Three Gorges, and the world's largest hydropower station in the top 20 exclusive 11, hydropower generation also dominates the world, crushing other opponents, in the design and construction of hydropower stations Technology is absolutely world-class, it is true, China's hydropower development degree in the proportion of total reserves is still relatively small, especially in the Pearl River region, The development degree of the Three Rivers area of the Hengduan Mountains is still very low, and the future development is promising; followed by wind power, wind power is mainly deployed in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Tibet, Qinghai region, by 2020, China's wind power generation accounted for more than 5% of the total electricity, and by 2030, the carbon peak period, the proportion will exceed 26%, becoming the second largest source of electricity after hydropower, China's wind power construction ideas are not only to place more and more wind power equipment on land, for the characteristics of large offshore wind power and a wide area, In recent years, China has begun to vigorously develop offshore wind power generation technology, through the manufacture of new types of ships that can carry and install offshore wind power plants, the wind power equipment is widely deployed in the South China Sea, the East China Sea, the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea, and the future of the ocean is full of wind power facilities.
Figure 5 China's solar energy is the only one in the world
Solar energy is another new energy, the solar energy into electrical equipment called photovoltaic products, China's photovoltaic products have reached the point of flooding the world, the United States and Europe continue to sanction, is because China's photovoltaic products cost is low, the number is large, Europe and the United States have been completely impossible to compete, the side reflects how early and fast The development of China's photovoltaic industry is, how fast, in 2020 1-10 months China's solar power generation cumulative output of 119.59 billion kWh, especially the northwest region of the solar energy accounted for 37% of the country The above, directly solved the problem of electricity in many sparsely populated areas, Xinjiang has long sunshine, strong sunlight, solar energy production is particularly strong, many people on the Internet even gave the concept of laying solar panels in the uninhabited areas of Tibet Xinjiang, although unrealistic, but in fact can reflect the huge potential of its power generation.
Hydropower, wind power and solar energy can directly produce electricity, but now most of the machinery is burning oil, inseparable from oil, in the case of gradually not tight power supply, the country has been continuing to promote the electrification of various cars, machinery, take the car as an example, the development of electric vehicles on the one hand can bypass the oil-moving car internal combustion engine manufacturing this super difficulty, directly run to electric vehicles and the West to re-PK, seize the future market, on the other hand, but also accelerate China's carbon peak and energy substitution, it is really two birds with one stone.
At this point, we see that behind the carbon peak is far from the meteorological change control so simple, but a major matter related to China's national defense and security, China through the continuous efforts of more than ten years, by 2030 can gradually achieve energy self-sufficiency, Malacca dilemma is naturally cracked, the Americans no longer have any cards to threaten us.