Text: Xie Zhichuan
Researchers from American think tanks have recently made a lot of reports, and many think tanks have come to the same conclusion, saying that the mainland will exert greater pressure on the gray area. The so-called gray zone in the Taiwan Strait is the continuous expansion of military exercises, and the gradual expansion of this scope can exert greater pressure on Taiwan or carry out a naval blockade. In fact, I believe that the PLA should have practiced all of this, and there is no need for American think tanks to remind them, and the reason why American think tanks are so worried now is actually very simple. They believe that after the pragmatic "Taiwan independence" workers are elected, there will absolutely not be a peaceful life between the two sides of the strait, so the Americans have especially included the USS Roosevelt aircraft carrier battle group in the Seventh Fleet.
The Seventh Fleet now has three aircraft carrier battle groups, all deployed in East Asia. Recently, North Korea has also been firing missiles at South Korea, which has caused unrest in Northeast Asia. Coupled with the factors in the Taiwan Strait, the US military has to deploy three aircraft carrier battle groups for deterrence. However, the problem is that missile technology is changing with each passing day, whether it is the mainland or the DPRK, and it is believed that the US aircraft carrier battle group will not dare to approach it.
Now some people say that if it is necessary to deal with the affairs of the Taiwan Strait, the best way is to blockade the mainland's maritime lifeline, the Strait of Malacca. However, it will take six months to blockade the Strait of Malacca, but the problem is that the problem in the Taiwan Strait can be solved in about 72 hours, and the blockade of the Strait of Malacca will take another six months. Just as Trump said back then, the U.S. military does not have the obligation and necessity to help Taiwan, because it is not cost-effective.
In particular, Trump's recent remarks have increasingly shown that he may look for Taiwan's semiconductors when the time comes. Because he said that Taiwan's semiconductors account for 90% of the world's share, and it has robbed the United States of manufacturing opportunities. So now TSMC is probably having a hard time sleeping at night. In addition to the positive layout, it is also necessary to take into account the progress of setting up factories in the United States, after all, Trump is now 6 percentage points ahead of Biden in the polls, and he completely crushes Biden in momentum. Therefore, in such a situation, many people begin to prepare in advance to start avoiding risks.
It's just that the idea of blockading the Strait of Malacca put forward by an American think tank is really a bit clumsy. After all, in addition to pirates, ships of many countries in the Strait of Malacca have to pass through the Strait of Malacca, so if the Strait of Malacca is blocked, what should Japan and South Korea do? Ships of these countries also pass through the Strait of Malacca, and not only Japan and South Korea, but also ships from Canada, Australia, and New Zealand must also pass through? This blockade of the Strait of Malacca is meaningless.
However, the mainland has long known the importance of the Strait of Malacca, so it has established a China-Pakistan Economic Corridor with Pakistan and started desperately building on the Gwadar port. In this way, crude oil from the Middle East can be unloaded directly at the Gwadar port. There is also natural gas, which can go directly to Xinjiang, so that it can safely enter the interior of the mainland. In addition, in Kyaukpyu Port in Myanmar, crude oil from the Middle East can also pass through Kyaukphyu Port in Myanmar, and directly transfer these crude oil and natural gas to Chongqing through Kunming, and the entire southwest region can also be satisfied.
Therefore, the mainland has been preparing in advance for a long time. It seems that the idea that American think tanks are now putting forward is not working. The reason why "The Art of War" is so touted is because the wisdom of the Chinese is far further than Westerners think. Moreover, now that Russia has supplied more crude oil than Saudi Arabia, the mainland has completely changed its entire energy mix. Under such circumstances, it is too late for American think tanks to think about these things now.
Moreover, the presidential election in the United States is now in full swing, and it depends on which of you is elected, and whoever is elected will do what you do. Anyway, if a businessman is re-elected, he will use the same method as before. It's just that they keep withdrawing from the group and want to engage in isolationism, which is also very good, anyway, the US forces can no longer be an international policeman to meddle in the affairs of many countries. After all, even a small Houthi rebel can't handle it. The United States has really lost its face this time, and the hegemony of the United States has probably reached a turning point now.
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