Honduras and the Tsai Ing-wen authorities "severed" diplomatic relations

Source: Huaxia Jingwei

Author: Peng Tao Center for Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macao and East Asian Studies, Central China Normal University

On March 14, 2023, Honduran President Xiomara Castro posted on social platforms that she had ordered Foreign Minister Eduardo Reina to seek formal diplomatic relations with the People's Republic of China. On March 17, Tsai Ing-wen held a dinner in Taipei for the so-called "envoy stationed in Taiwan" and issued an invitation to the "representative in Taiwan" of Honduras, but Brod, the "representative in Taiwan" of Honduras, did not appear. On March 23, Taiwan's foreign affairs agency announced its decision to recall what Tsai Ing-wen called "representatives in Honduras." On March 25, Zhang Junfei, "Taiwan's representative in Honduras," returned to Taiwan by plane. On March 25, local time, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Honduras issued a statement officially announcing the severance of "diplomatic" relations with Taiwan. On March 26, Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang held talks with Honduran Foreign Minister Eduardo Reina in Beijing and signed the Joint Communiqué between the People's Republic of China and the Republic of Honduras on the Establishment of Diplomatic Relations, officially establishing diplomatic relations between China and Hong Kong.

Since Tsai came to power in 2016, the number of so-called "countries with diplomatic relations" in Taiwan has been declining. Honduras is the ninth country to announce the severance of official relations with Taiwan authorities since the Tsai Ing-wen administration came to power. Earlier, Sao Tome and Principe (2016), Panama (2017), Dominica (2018), Burkina Faso (2018), El Salvador (2018), Solomon Islands (2019), Kiribati (2019), Nicaragua (2021) successively "severed diplomatic relations" with Taiwan. As a result, the number of "countries with diplomatic relations" in Taiwan has been reduced to 13, an all-time low. At present, Taiwan's "countries with diplomatic relations" are mainly concentrated in Central and South America and the South Pacific region. Latin America is an important town of Taiwan's traditional "diplomatic relations", including Belize, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Paraguay, Haiti, Guatemala, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, and Saint Lucia. The South Pacific island countries of Oceania mainly include Tuvalu, Nauru, the Marshall Islands and Palau. There is currently only one country left each in Africa and Europe, namely Eswatini and the Vatican.

The Tsai Ing-wen administration attaches great importance to the relationship between "countries with diplomatic relations", which is its so-called "solid state protection". First, in order to expand its "international living space", through monetary donations and technical assistance to countries with diplomatic relations, such as instigating "countries with diplomatic relations" to propose, co-sign and make supportive statements for their "participation in the United Nations" and "accession to the World Health Organization"; The second is to provide a platform for closer relations with non-"countries with diplomatic relations" surrounding the "countries with diplomatic relations", and try to enhance their "legitimacy" by winning over friends or expanding their "international visibility", so as to strengthen the international status of the so-called "Republic of China"; Third, more than half of Taiwan's "countries with diplomatic relations" are in Central and South America, which is geographically close to North America, and "transit through the United States" is one of the important channels for successive Taiwan authorities to develop substantive relations with the United States. Fourth, Taiwan's "countries with diplomatic relations" are basically "dependent countries" of the United States, and through "countries with diplomatic relations," Taiwan can expand its influence in Central and South America and the South Pacific region, and use the power of the United States to stand for it in the "countries with diplomatic relations."

First, the "diplomacy" of the Tsai Ing-wen administration is unsustainable, and the "solid state protection" is useless

In developing relations with "countries with diplomatic relations", the Tsai Ing-wen administration has mainly adopted "practical diplomacy", "gold dollar diplomacy", "cultural and educational diplomacy", high-level mutual visits, and the establishment of institutionalized cooperation methods to maintain and consolidate its "diplomatic" relations with "friends".

First of all, the political field advocates "down-to-earth diplomacy". At the beginning of her tenure in June 2016, Tsai Ing-wen began her trip to Panama and Paraguay, the "friendly countries". During the visit, Tsai Ing-wen repeatedly mentioned the new policy of "solid diplomacy" in her speech. From the connotation point of view, the so-called "down-to-earth diplomacy" is to move steadily in the right direction, overcome Taiwan's various 'diplomatic' challenges and open up international space in the spirit of being down-to-earth and step by step." Second, it is to adhere to the values of freedom and democracy, cooperate closely with like-minded countries on the basis of mutual benefit, and make practical contributions to the international community, so as to strengthen the international status of the 'Republic of China'. From the perspective of purpose, the Tsai Ing-wen administration implements a policy of "down-to-earth diplomacy", on the one hand, it wants to continue to consolidate relations with "countries with diplomatic relations" with a down-to-earth attitude; On the other hand, with down-to-earth movements, I hope to step out of the "international space" and step onto the international stage.

Obviously, Tsai Ing-wen's policy of "down-to-earth diplomacy" draws on the foreign affairs experience of the Chen Shui-bian and Ma Ying-jeou periods. Historically, the "beacon diplomacy" of the Chen Shui-bian period hoped to expand the number of "countries with diplomatic relations," which actually challenged the mainland's bottom line, but it was counterproductive. Chen Shui-bian's "beacon diplomacy" and Ma Ying-jeou's 4E "Engagement", Economy, Elasticity, and Equality inspired Tsai Ing-wen a lot. Although Tsai Ing-wen has changed Chen Shui-bian's strategy of pursuing "de jure Taiwan independence" and "beacon diplomacy," learned from Ma Ying-jeou's "soft and flexible" and "zero accidents" approach, and changed "collision diplomacy" and "hard Taiwan independence" to "pragmatic diplomacy" and "gradual Taiwan independence," her core concept of "Taiwan independence" has not changed. It can be said that as long as Tsai Ing-wen does not abandon her de facto concept of "Taiwan independence," various small moves of "Taiwan independence" will inevitably occur in "diplomatic" activities, and her "down-to-earth diplomacy" will be difficult to be "steadfast." Since 2017, since Tsai Ing-wen came to power, the Taiwan authorities have been blocked by WHO for six consecutive years. Previously, from 2009, under the premise of recognizing the one-China principle and the "consensus of '92", the Taiwan authorities participated in the World Health Assembly in the name of Chinese Taipei and as WHO observers until 2016. According to Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin in his statement on May 21, 2022, "So far, nearly 90 countries have expressed their adherence to the one-China principle and opposition to Taiwan's participation in the World Health Assembly by means of special letters to WHO. Therefore, although Tsai Ing-wen's "down-to-earth diplomacy" says "down-to-earth," her substance's rejection of the one-China principle and the "consensus of '92" is actually to use "diplomacy" as a means to pursue the purpose of "independence," and in the end it only gets a short-term wooing and is not accepted by the world. If Taiwan goes further and further down the road of cross-strait separation in the future, Taiwan will not be able to eliminate the crisis of "severing diplomatic relations," and its "space for international activities" is bound to be difficult to expand.

Secondly, economically operate "gold dollar diplomacy". The Taiwan authorities' "down-to-earth diplomacy" explanation report once mentioned that "relations between Taiwan and other countries should get rid of the past thinking of 'one-way assistance' and instead focus on 'mutually beneficial' 'economic and trade diplomacy'." In fact, it is Tsai Ing-wen who gives preferential policies to "countries with diplomatic relations" to maintain "diplomatic relations" and tries to develop mutually beneficial economic and trade relations with "countries with diplomatic relations" to enhance the substantive relationship between the two sides. However, in real life, most of Taiwan's "countries with diplomatic relations" are poor countries, far from Taiwan's economic power. Economic and trade exchanges between Taiwan and "countries with diplomatic relations" can only be unbalanced economic and trade relations, which can only be maintained under the condition of preferential financial support. On 5 September 2018, the Tsai Ing-wen administration announced NT$60 million to set up the Pacific Islands Forum Special Medical Fund to increase medical support in the South Pacific region. In addition, it has spent a lot of money to provide infrastructure construction and economic assistance to the "friends" of the South Pacific. For example, supporting the construction of venues for the 2023 Pacific Olympic Games in the Solomon Islands, providing services to Palau's agricultural technology team, and teaching locals how to grow fruits and vegetables. Relevant personnel of Taiwan's "foreign aid" science and technology team said that the "foreign aid" behavior of the "foreign aid technical group" often hangs the guise of "humanitarian", but in fact it is a kind of "money diplomacy" and has a high "diplomatic mission". For example, in 2022, the Tsai Ing-wen administration spent US$1.2 billion to set up the so-called "Central and Eastern European Investment Fund" and the "Financing Fund" to stabilize quasi-official relations with Lithuania, and also paid for the US$900,000 in "diplomatic" expenses that Guatemala lobbies with the United States every year, acting as a cash machine for so-called "countries with diplomatic relations". On September 28, 2022, Paraguayan President Benitez publicly asked Taiwan to invest US$1 billion in Paraguay to help its development, openly demanding money, indicating that the relationship between the Tsai Ing-wen administration and Paraguay is a typical case of "golden dollar diplomacy".

To sum up, the so-called "golden yuan" diplomacy of the Tsai Ing-wen administration is essentially "short, flat and fast" to maintain fragile "diplomatic" relations by channeling the interests of "countries with diplomatic relations". Chinese mainland as the world's second largest economy, the largest and most important trading partner of most countries in the world, and the only country in the world with a complete industrial system. In 2020, the new crown virus epidemic caused a greater impact on the global economy, and the economic pattern of Taiwan's long-standing economy relying on chip production has also been greatly affected, and the economic downward trend is obvious. The so-called "gold dollar diplomacy" of the Taiwan authorities is far from satisfying the domestic needs of "countries with diplomatic relations", but if Taiwan's "countries with diplomatic relations" choose to cooperate with the mainland, the mainland's huge size will continue to benefit these countries for a long time in the future. One is short-term injection, the other is long-term gain, from this point of view, the "severance of diplomatic relations" choice of "countries with diplomatic relations" is beyond reproach. Moreover, Taiwan's so-called "countries with diplomatic relations" are typical mercenary motives, such as Taiwan's "countries with diplomatic relations" Nauru's main source of income now relies on selling coconuts, the president sells "diplomacy" every day when he has nothing to do, and whoever pays money supports whoever votes in the United Nations, and the price is only five thousand dollars at a time... This fragile monetary relationship and "gold dollar diplomacy" are doomed to be untenable.

Finally, cultural and educational "cultural and educational diplomacy" should be strengthened. After Tsai Ing-wen came to power, she intends to further strengthen "diplomatic" relations with other countries through some cultural and educational exchanges and other projects. In May 2017, Taiwan's foreign affairs department specially held the "2017 Latin American and Caribbean 'AIA' Taiwan Carnival" to perform music and dance of Latin American "friendly" countries and strengthen cultural exchanges. On the one hand, it has used educational exchanges, study abroad and other programs to attract "countries with diplomatic relations" and set up Solomon Islands cooperation program projects, including agricultural technology extension, medical and health centers and Taiwan scholarships. In March 2017, Zheng Licheng, Taiwan's representative in Ecuador, paid a special visit to Pang Sai, president of the Ecuadorian branch of the Latin American Academy of Social Sciences, and others to publicize the "Taiwan Scholarship" to each other, hoping to attract more young people from "countries with diplomatic relations" to study in Taiwan. Starting from 2020, the National Taiwan University Special Scholarship for Latin America and Caribbean Countries with Diplomatic Relations has been upgraded to NT$65,000 per student per semester, and NT$6,000 per month living allowance. In June 2018, King Mswati III, the son of King Mswati III Eswatini, who studied at Shih Chien University in Taiwan, visited Taiwan for the 17th time in June 2018 on the grounds of attending his son's graduation ceremony. At the graduation ceremony of Shih Shi University, Bankohi said in Chinese, "I wish you all a long journey." I want to tell you that I love practice, I love Taiwan, and I decided to stay at my alma mater to pursue a master's degree. In addition, for speaking out for Taiwan on many international occasions, Mswati III was awarded a doctorate in management by Shih Shih University. Eswatini, as Taiwan's only "diplomatic relations" with Taiwan, Taiwan has "solidified" with it through the top-level line and cultural and educational exchanges.

However, with the development of a new type of major-country relationship in Chinese mainland and the advancement of the "One Belt, One Road" strategy, mainly for developing countries; Chinese mainland's influence in the region is expanding day by day, and it is constantly strengthening the depth and breadth of foreign cultural exchanges and educational cooperation, which has a huge impact on Taiwan's so-called "countries with diplomatic relations." All in all, the Tsai Ing-wen administration is trying to deepen the dependence of these countries on Taiwan through all-round exchanges and transportation such as political economy, culture and education, but from the current point of view, the effect is not very large, and the effect is not very good.

Second, the Tsai Ing-wen administration's "topband" efforts have been fruitless, and "substantive diplomacy" has achieved little results

In terms of expanding relations with "non-diplomatic relations," Taiwan has changed from actively "expanding the country" to developing "substantive relations" and seeking a "breakthrough" in foreign relations by strengthening trade exchanges, economic aid, cultural and educational exchanges, and "congressional diplomacy."

(1) Europe: Seeking "breakthroughs" and striving for "international space"

In recent years, the Tsai Ing-wen administration has increased its all-round contacts with "non-diplomatic countries" in Europe. Most European countries have followed the United States step by step over the years, and the Tsai Ing-wen administration has used Europe to manipulate the Taiwan issue, and with the influence of the European Parliament and the status of anti-China politicians and former officials in some countries, it has sought a "breakthrough" in relations with Europe and cooperated with the United States to "control China with Taiwan."

The European Parliament made peace with Taiwan, taking a dangerous step, and the crisis in the Taiwan Strait was constantly pushed up. In 2020, the European Parliament passed six Taiwan-related resolutions, saying that the EU will work with international partners to strengthen cooperation with Taiwan, support Taiwan's meaningful participation in international organizations, and call on the EU to start investment negotiations with Taiwan. In 2021, 12 more Taiwan-related resolutions were passed, including "EU-Taiwan political relations and cooperation" that seriously violated the one-China principle, claiming to upgrade "official relations" between Europe and Taiwan. In 2022, the European Parliament also passed two Taiwan-related resolutions, emphasizing "deepening EU-Taiwan cooperation" and encouraging Taiwan authorities to participate in international affairs, while also pointing fingers at the PLA's normal patrols in the Taiwan Strait, falsely claiming that Chinese mainland "military intimidation" against Taiwan.

Against this background, Taiwan has vigorously promoted the development of relations with Central and Eastern European countries. In late October, Wu Zhaoxie, head of Taiwan's foreign affairs department, visited the Czech Republic and Slovakia, and Taiwan's so-called economic and trade delegation visited Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Lithuania to strive for the so-called "international status" and "international space".

(2) Asia: Close to "allies" and highlight the "new southbound" policy

The general tone of the Tsai Ing-wen administration's foreign policy is "pro-American, united with Japan, and anti-China." In Asia, the Tsai Ing-wen administration does not have a so-called "country with diplomatic relations", but in order to cooperate with the "Indo-Pacific strategy" of the United States and increase the intensity of "ring blocking" Chinese mainland, Taiwan attaches great importance to relations with Japan. Japan has colonized Taiwan for 50 years, and it also has special feelings for Taiwan in history, culture, society and other aspects, and there are inextricable ties between the two sides, plus the Taiwan Strait is a "life channel" for Japan to obtain energy from overseas, and Taiwan's strategic position is very important to Japan. After Tsai Ing-wen came to power in 2016, relations between Taiwan and Japan warmed rapidly. Taiwan and Japan have frequently demonstrated close and friendly relations with the outside world, advocated "Taiwan-Japan friendship", and continuously enhanced the substantive relations between the two sides in the political, economic, cultural, military and other fields through high-level mutual visits, institutional name changes, economic cooperation, and people-to-people exchanges.

First, in terms of high-level Japan and Taiwan, in 2021, former Japanese Vice Minister of Defense Yasuhide Nakayama threw out the theory of "Taiwan brothers" and called for "the need to protect Taiwan", Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso regarded "something happening in the Taiwan Strait" as "a crisis situation in Japan", advocating that "Japan and the United States will protect Taiwan", and former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe threw out the remark that "something happens in Taiwan is something happens to Japan". In 2021, the Taiwan-Japan "Foreign and Defense Policy Opinion Exchange Meeting", commonly known as the Taiwan-Japan "2+2" security talks, was also launched, and the two sides conducted dialogues on foreign affairs, defense security and trade.

Second, in terms of the name change of the institution, under the joint promotion of the Tsai Ing-wen administration and the Japanese official, on January 1, 2017, the "Public Welfare Foundation Exchange Association" in Japan's window to the Taiwan region changed its name to "Japan Taiwan Exchange Association", that is, "Japan Taiwan Exchange Association". On 17 May, the "Association for Relations with East Asia," which is Taiwan's window to Japan, was renamed the "Taiwan-Japan Relations Association," and the Japanese flag was even hoisted rarely at the location of the association.

Third, in the economic aspect of Japan and Taiwan, the Tsai Ing-wen administration has taken joining the Japan-led Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) as the focus of seeking close relations between non-"countries with diplomatic relations" and "Taiwan independence" economic space, and Japan has also repeatedly expressed its support for Taiwan's accession to the CPTPP. The Tsai Ing-wen administration did not hesitate to sacrifice the health and well-being of the people on the island to open up imports of "Fukushima nuclear food" to unblock the "anti-nuclear food referendum" in the 2018 "nine-in-one" election, in exchange for Japan's support for Taiwan's accession to the CPTPP.

Fourth, in terms of Japan-Taiwan cooperation, Taiwan and Japan have comprehensively enhanced Japan-Taiwan relations on cultural relics exhibitions, mask "diplomacy", and anti-epidemic disaster relief. On January 16, 2019, the "Forbidden City" in Taipei illegally lent the "Manuscript of the Sacrifice of Nephews" by Yan Zhenqing of the Tang Dynasty, the "treasure of the town hall", to the Tokyo National Museum in Japan. During the epidemic in 2020, Chen Shizhong, head of Taiwan's health and welfare department, unexpectedly advised the people on the island to "steam masks in an electric pot", but he assisted the saved masks to countries such as Japan, the United States and other countries. Under the banner of "strengthening Taiwan-Japan epidemic prevention cooperation", Qiu Yiren, president of the "Taiwan-Japan Relations Association", donated 2 million masks to Japan through the Taipei office of the "Japan Taiwan Exchange Association" to "politicize" epidemic prevention. The Taiwan and Japanese high-level officials have been deeply involved in the Hualien earthquake in Taiwan and the Kumamoto earthquake in Japan, in an attempt to create "one China, one Taiwan," which seriously violates the one-China principle.

In addition to being close to "allies", the Tsai Ing-wen administration has launched a "new southbound" policy in Asia since 2016 (the main targets include ten ASEAN countries, six South Asian countries, as well as Australia and New Zealand), using economic and trade ties to reduce the thinking of dependence on mainland economy and trade, and strengthen the operation of "non-diplomatic countries" such as India and Southeast Asia. In October 2022, Tsai Ing-wen attended the 2022 Yushan Forum held by the Taiwan-Asia Exchange Foundation in Taipei, and delivered a speech: "Taiwan's profits from the new southbound countries in the second quarter of 2022 have exceeded their investments in the mainland, and Taiwanese companies' profits in Southeast Asia have also exceeded their profits in the mainland for the first time. But the Tsai administration's "new southbound" policy, like her "gold dollar diplomacy," proved unsustainable. First of all, despite the huge potential of the Southeast Asian market, Taiwan's current situation of unstable foothold and little presence in the region has not significantly improved, and the countries targeted by the "New Southbound" policy have no formal "diplomatic relations" with Taiwan, and when dealing with Taiwan, it is inevitable that out of national interests, the attitude and position of the Chinese mainland will be included in the decision-making process. Second, with the withdrawal of the United States from the TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership), ASEAN countries have committed to improving their relations with Chinese mainland, the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area and the RECP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) covering India, and the steady development of the "One Belt, One Road" strategy that Chinese mainland benefits the world has also made Southeast Asian countries more closely linked with Chinese mainland, which makes it difficult for Taiwan to intervene in the region and cannot exert its strength; Third, against the background of the mainland's growing strength and the increasing degree of cross-strait economic and trade dependence, lowering economic and trade ties with the mainland and strengthening economic and trade cooperation among "New Southbound" countries actually establishes an economic competitor for Taiwan that is completely unmatchable, and is not in line with Taiwan's interests and runs counter to economic laws. Fourth, and more importantly, the policy has also been questioned on the island, believing that it may lead to a one-way outflow of Taiwanese capital and further aggravate Taiwan's industrial hollowing. Therefore, once the "new southbound" policy was launched, it felt difficult to move forward, and Tsai Ing-wen's use of economic and trade forces to pave the way for "diplomacy" also became a castle in the air.

Third, the influence of Chinese mainland is increasing day by day, and the one-China principle is the trend of the times

Judging from the current situation, the Tsai Ing-wen administration has lost nine "countries with diplomatic relations" in the seven years since it came to power, and the remaining 13 "countries with diplomatic relations" are also in danger. At present, Paraguay's presidential election is in full swing, and its leader of the Blue Party, presidential candidate Farren Allegri, has made it clear that if he can win the presidential election in April, he will immediately "sever diplomatic relations" with the Taiwan authorities and establish diplomatic relations with the People's Republic of China.

Moreover, the remaining "countries with diplomatic relations" in Taiwan are all small countries with "one poor and two small", their international influence is small and speculative, and the establishment of diplomatic relations with Taiwan is not really based on the consideration of "democracy and public opinion", but has its own intentions. In particular, they want to take the opportunity to "blackmail" Taiwan and obtain a large amount of abnormal "assistance" from Taiwan, but this kind of "diplomatic relations" based on "golden dollars" is destined to quench thirst and fail to achieve long-term healthy sustained economic development. Honduran Foreign Minister Eduardo Reina said in response to the "severance of diplomatic relations" with the Taiwan authorities that the decision to establish diplomatic relations with Chinese mainland and sever relations with Taiwan was motivated by economic interests rather than ideology. "The global situation is complex," he said. We need to be open", "We need to invest. We need cooperation. "At the same time, since the outbreak of the epidemic three years ago, Taiwan's economy has continued to be sluggish, and the downward trend is obvious. Official data shows that Taiwan's gross domestic product (GDP) economic growth rate in 2022 will be 2.45%, totaling NT$22.71 trillion, or about US$762.674 billion, equivalent to about RMB5,129.803 billion, which was overtaken by Fujian Province and dropped to ninth in the national ranking. However, under the circumstances of economic downturn and tight finances, the Tsai Ing-wen administration has to allocate tens of billions of NT$10 billion every year to maintain relations with Latin America, the South Pacific and other "countries with diplomatic relations", which will inevitably lead to a further deterioration of the economy in Taiwan and seriously affect the interests and well-being of the Taiwan people.

On January 18, 2022, at the "2022 Annual Forum on Macro Situation" hosted by Chinese Minmin University, Vice Foreign Minister Le Yucheng clearly pointed out that he firmly believes that China will be reunified, and it is only a matter of time before Taiwan's so-called "countries with diplomatic relations" are cleared. Judging from the trend of future development, the Tsai Ing-wen administration will be full of daunting challenges in the so-called "international space". In fact, the most fundamental reason for the avalanche of "countries with diplomatic relations" of the Tsai Ing-wen administration is their refusal to recognize the one-China principle and the "consensus of '92." Under the circumstance that the Chinese mainland"One Belt, One Road" strategy continues to advance, the comprehensive national strength and international influence are increasing day by day, and gradually moving towards the center of the world, the one-China principle has long become the consensus of the international community, more and more countries recognize the one-China principle, actively establish diplomatic relations with Chinese mainland, and have close economic and trade cooperation with each other, mutual benefit and common development, Taiwan's "international space" will continue to be compressed, and the so-called "diplomacy" will continue to encounter setbacks. On March 26, 2023, the day China and Honduras established diplomatic relations, Chinese Assistant Foreign Minister Hua Chunying tweeted, "182vs13: This is the aspiration of the global people and the trend of history." At the same time, it also reflects that Tsai Ing-wen's outdated and outdated "down-to-earth diplomacy" and "gold-dollar diplomacy", which is bought by money, is becoming vulnerable under the consensus that "Taiwan is an inalienable part of China" in the international community, and also reflects that the Tsai Ing-wen administration's attempt to win over "countries with diplomatic relations" in order to expand the so-called "international space" is doomed to failure, the Taiwan authorities are gradually abandoned by the world, and "Taiwan independence" is doomed to a dead end.