Pandora's box has been opened and there is no going back
Original Makinono Makinono 2023-03-26 10:48 Posted in Beijing
It is included in the collection #Makinono International Current Affairs Review
Even if we know that the world will be destroyed tomorrow, mankind will still not forget to fight today.
Last week's explosive iteration of artificial intelligence is still relatively unfamiliar to most people.
In the impression of many people, they may still stay in the hype of the concept of "meta-universe" last year, thinking that it is another round of brainwashing of capital, or thinking about how to use chatGPT to achieve profits.
As everyone knows, the wolf has really arrived.
There is no research, no follow-up, and Ben has no right to speak, but each of us seems to have a kind of confused self-confidence, no matter what level of society we are in, we have our own delusional determination.
Some of these self-confidences come from past experience, some come from the information cocoon, and it is these "self-confidences" that support human beings to live proudly.
Zhang Yiming said that cognitive ability is the core competitiveness of a person.
But the fact is that mankind has not made much progress for a long time, and we think that the "brilliant" civilization, the pride, the invincibility, the arrogance, the various "meanings" and "cognitions" that we pile up, may be more of a self-suggestion.
Human beings have no meaning in the earth, in the universe, just like you go to see an anthill.
The biggest movement a person can make is probably to blow up the moon or the earth and turn it into a pile of debris, nothing more.
The earth does not need you to save, the universe does not need you to explore, and the tens of thousands of years before and after your existence are a P.
Oblivion is the cruelest desolation in the universe.
Why don't we often look up at the starry sky for a long time, because human beings are too small, if they look for a long time, they can't accept the facts and the real world, and their psychology can't bear it and dare not look.
So he lowered his head, mixed in human society, followed the flow, played with himself, fought with himself, found something to do, and swayed between life and boredom.
Jiang Wen has a saying that is very good, saying that human beings do not have much ability, and it is very good to be able to understand themselves.
We wander between ignorance and helplessness, build our own logic of survival, live and live with peace of mind.
Hundreds of years ago, we thought the Earth was the center of the universe, and when Bruno was burned, the crowd was outraged. Hundreds of years later, we all believe that human beings are the masters of the earth, trampling and destroying at will.
Few people can bear the truth, and few people can face up to the smallness of human beings, and we are all sure that we are God.
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The best chess player on the planet is a schoolboy in front of AI.
The most accurate person on the planet is not as good as the robot's shot.
The things we memorize are not as good as a disk from the old century.
In ancient times, the five cars of Xuefu, can the number of words in the five cars of bamboo be worth the five books now?
The pitiful, proud "ability" of human beings is really vulnerable, like a weak chicken.
Except arrogance, there is nothing that AI cannot replace.
Many people don't even understand the extent of the current development of artificial intelligence, so they pat their chests and say, "Artificial intelligence can't replace me."
The vast majority of people believe because they see, and only a very small number see because they believe.
Each of us, whether mental or physical, will eventually be replaced, this "after all" is not far away, not a science fiction film, or what we can see in this life, but the time node is different.
On March 25, the 2023 China Development High-level Forum opened, 360 Group founder Zhou Hongyi said that the gap between China's large language model technology level and GPT-4 is in 2 to 3 years, the current technical direction of GPT has been clear, there are no insurmountable technical obstacles, Chinese enterprises should adhere to the spirit of long-termism and catch up. Zhou Hongyi expects that GPT6 to GPT8 artificial intelligence will generate consciousness and become a new species. In the future, artificial intelligence big language models may achieve self-evolution, automatic update of systems and self-upgrades, or exponential evolution capabilities, and human beings will face unpredictable security challenges.
How quickly artificial intelligence is evolving, you only need to look at one criterion:
When there are more and more ethical discussions about AI in society, it is when the crisis comes.
Technical aspects
In the past two weeks, the scenarios created by generative AI and GPT support plugins have spread rapidly, and AI has quickly sunk itself into the lowest logic of the Internet, and soon, all applications on the Internet will be based on this.
All white-collar and knowledge jobs, including the drawing, programming, data analysis, and text classes we see now, have felt the impact in the past few months.
Especially under the economic crisis, the intention to lay off employees will become stronger and stronger.
As the "retraining" of AI in the field of mathematics improves, the capabilities of this area will also increase.
I see that during this period, many businesses in China have used GPT, and art design is no longer needed, and the cost is down to one-third.
In this way, the problem of fewer Westerners and labor can be solved by AI and robots, and it does not need so many people.
The creativity of each individual will suddenly explode.
It won't be long before one person is "thousands of troops".
What a private equity team does, one person can do;
Two or three people can do things in one company;
The affairs of a department, if not considered by confidentiality requirements, do not have to raise so many idlers at all.
Now we're keeping GPT out, but how long?
It is said that some companies such as Meituan and WPS are the first to cooperate with GPT in commercial use, because whoever introduces it first means a short-term dimensionality reduction blow to the opponent.
Look at the other side.
The core of China's proud "Internet use" is "traffic".
How to improve user experience and optimize the process, the ultimate goal is to master the traffic, with the traffic, and then think about the monetization model.
Under artificial intelligence, there is no need, people only need to tell AI, and the rest of the interaction is integrated by AI.
The next step is for people to delegate the payment scenario, and finally:
AI integrates the world, as for whether it serves people, when it does not want to serve people, that can only depend on supervision.
All of the above can be done in two years.
The era of the traditional Internet is coming to an end.
Then there's the entity part.
Next, the technology and process of robot manufacturing will quickly catch up, until the combination of AI and entity, which should be enough within this decade.
I believe it is only a matter of time before I said that handicrafts and physical strength cannot be eliminated.
I used to write that I went to the workshop of Sany Heavy Industry, and there are few people left, most of them are robots.
Don't have five insurances and one housing fund, don't get promoted and raised, 7*24 hours of work robots.
Robots at the Chicago show on March 23
Great power game level
As Zhou Hongyi said, although China lags behind in this field, it is still a leader in the whole world.
As I said before, you can listen dialectically to other people's words, and you have to listen carefully to Huang Qifan's words, because he is one of the most reliable and accurate people I have met so far.
On March 25, at the 2023 annual meeting of the China Development High-level Forum, Huang Qifan said that special attention should be paid to the final products transformed by the core technologies of the fourth industrial revolution. Every industrial revolution produces a number of key technologies. Now it's the Fourth Industrial Revolution: the Age of Artificial Intelligence. We may have all three states of leading, running, or following. In this process, if there are several types of large products of our final industrial chain cluster made in China, it is to truly grasp the initiative of industrial chain layout.
A lot of what he said can't be said in detail, but if you study it, you will know very deeply and very deeply, and many of them are strategic.
His judgment of the current historical position is: the fourth industrial revolution.
In the future, GPT should have many similar applications, competing with computing power, personalized services and accuracy, and it has a threshold, that is, enough.
We still have room to catch up, which is a little better than chips, but in addition to the backwardness of the data model, we also need to consider a problem, that is, the underlying problem of the Internet.
GPT is an AI based on the US Internet and spread in English, so I believe that China will do these things in the future, whether you want to do international scenes or only serve the domestic situation, this issue should be considered clearly.
A set of AI learning models based on the Chinese system is not the same thing as English, and a lot of knowledge information in the Chinese world is garbage or even misguided.
And one day the United States will give you a pass, and your set may be gone again.
I have written about the problem of ideology, the ideological war of AI will be more secretive and tragic, and the more people use it, the more people it can control and brainwash.
"An ideological nuclear war is coming"
If you think about why the United States has to block TikTok, because TikTok's influence is like a fireside conversation radio in the old days.
If we want to really practice a community with a shared future for mankind, we need more and more of this kind of international application, but these are two different directions, and if we do not consider it well, we will be lifted on the table and it will be in vain.
In the future of AI, is it one brain, or two, or several?
Ethical and moral aspects
The more involved the training of artificial intelligence, the faster it will evolve.
If there is no supervision now, when the AI becomes conscious, it will understand the fact:
Humans are really weak.
People don't have much ability, memory is like that, emotions are like that, belly is like that, it is always the control of a small group of people over a large number of people, most of them are rabble.
Then the natural logic is:
What is the meaning of your human existence?
If it is alive, then should humans serve robots, or machines serve people?
If it is civilization, you are so weak and not as good as robots, why should you evolve? You call this civilization?
Logic that humans can think about, AI can also think.
As soon as humans think, AI laughs.
We created Ai, and AI learns far more than humans, so are we part of evolution, or is evolution itself?
From the perspective of optimization, many logical rules of human society are conflicting.
If from the perspective of emotions and complex emotions, it is irrational and inefficient.
Human beings have not produced great philosophers and great writers for many years, and few people think about the meaning of life.
In the short term, humans and AI may have a good honeymoon period, because AI will help humans greatly improve productivity and efficiency, while on the other hand, we will quickly see that humans are too weak and weak to need so many people at all.
The earth's environment can't accommodate so many people, and most living machines can do it, so from the perspective of survival, AI can make some "reasonable" logic.
And these logics may also be the logic of a small number of people at the top on this planet. AI can help people achieve many things, including ulterior purposes.
Some people still have a conscience, but they say that the probability is not counted.
News on March 21, according to foreign media reports, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said in an interview with the media that he was a little afraid of artificial intelligence technology and how it affects the workforce and the spread of disinformation.
The CEO acknowledged that this would mean many people would lose their jobs, but said it would be an opportunity to find better jobs.
Not only that, but Mr. Altman also thinks far ahead, and he also started a future cooperative, wanting to provide a free monthly salary for everyone who does not need to work.
Scientists are not capitalists, ideals are always beautiful, but the final trajectory of things must be in the direction of a small number of people mastering AI to achieve control.
The vast majority of people will become the part that lies at home more and more lazy and useless. Of course, this in itself also satisfies the nature of people to eat and lazy, and even the secret pursuit of each of us - to get something for nothing.
In fact, most of the technological development is now developing in the direction of the meta-universe, but the difference between not calling it the name meta-universe.
We are only one thing away from that world:
The energy revolution.
If the problem of energy can solve the problem of sustainability, such as the "little sun" of China or the United States, or the personalization of nuclear energy, it will be over.
Then, there may be no later.
This trend is almost difficult to reverse, because all business models, in essence, are compared to who can satisfy human desires more smoothly.
Pandora's box has been opened, everything is accelerating, and there is no going back.
Remember, all people, things, and nations that can go against human nature are God.
I thought, in the end, what is left of mankind, and what is worth passing on in the universe?
There may only be love and beauty.
The complex, tangled, complex emotions that make people secrete dopamine and endorphins, cry or laugh, life or death, these quantum entanglements that are difficult to express and copy, and the strange logic that cannot be explained with value, efficiency and logic, are the unique experiences of our lives.
Life is an experience, who says it isn't?