There is everything that can be said about the reasons for the war, political scientists say political reasons, economists analyze economic reasons. For example, when the United States launched the Iraq war, it was said that because Iraq had "chemical weapons"; When the Japanese devils launched the Lougou Bridge Incident, they said that their soldiers lost them. It was recently discovered that Professor Wen Tiejun also said a trade reason.
The reason for the war
Professor Wen Tiejun wrote in "When Western Debt Is High, How Will the Crisis Be Further Transferred?" In the nineteenth century, the main reason for China's imperialist aggression was its long-term trade surplus, which led to a large inflow of silver.
As early as the 19th century, China accounted for more than 60% of the world's silver, so if the total economy, total trade and total precious metal reserves, China was the world's largest country in that era.
Professor Wen Tiejun meant that China's large export volume at that time led to a long-term trade deficit in the West, and the trade deficit West had to return to China silver, and when their own silver was insufficient, they would have to fight, so there was a long-term silver war, colonization and plunder, and world capitalism developed in this way.
Because there is more silver, it invites the logic of war
I always thought that the Qing government was closed to the country and had nothing to trade with foreign countries, but I didn't expect that Professor Wen Tiejun was right. Before 1840, China's trade was indeed in surplus, and there should indeed be a large amount of silver flowing to China, relying on exports to cause silver to account for 60% of the world, and then the West started the Silver War? For China, the first should have been the Opium War of 1840.
After the Western forces began to trade opium on the mainland, a large amount of silver began to lose, and from 1830 to 1840, the Qing government began to outflow because of the opium trade of 560 million taels, which should be a trade deficit, right? And to fight in 1840?
Therefore, the main reason why you can't fight a war is not whether your trade is in surplus or deficit, the key is whether your force value is strong or not, Professor Wen said that the main reason for the war is caused by the trade surplus, which is like saying, because your family has silver, so imperialism will rob, must rob.
After World War II, the United States became the country with the largest gold reserves in the world, it is said that gold reserves reached more than 75% of the world's gold, that is how long than the Qing government's silver accounted for 60% of the world's share of the world, and gold is more valuable than silver, so why is no country because of the United States gold ran over to grab? All imperialism united, and the United States also attacked the United States with a United Nations army, divided the United States as well, and burned him if he could not take his Lady Liberty away, just like burning the Old Summer Palace, does any country dare?
It can be seen that Professor Wen said that the main reason why China suffered aggression in the 19th century was not a trade surplus, nor too many silver reserves, but the poor value of the Qing government's force at that time. When you are strong, even if there is a trade deficit, even if there is more silver, imperialism will not dare to treat you well.
The current global crisis
Professor Wen Tiejun is more worried about the current situation in the mainland, he said, to this day, we have reproduced this situation, trade surplus, China once again has the largest economic aggregate, the largest trade aggregate, into the dollar or euro such a hard currency, China has become one of the world's foreign exchange reserves ranked first, in addition to China and Japan.
Professor Wen also told a surprising phenomenon that the assassination of former Japanese Prime Minister Abe was related to the debt of Western countries led by the United States. Professor Wen Tiejun said that because China and Japan are the first and second creditors, especially the United States, and the United States' debt has reached the highest level in history.
How did Abe's assassination relate to the debt owed to the United States, and Abe had to let Japan force the United States to pay its debt? After Shinzo Abe's assassination, Biden also ordered the flag to be lowered to half-mast to mourn Abe, and said that Abe was a loyal friend of the United States. Are they all loyal friends, and will they be related to the debts of the West? I think it should be irrelevant. However, Professor Wen Tiejun must have his truth in saying this, who knows why Professor Wen Tiejun said this?
Another point is that the Western countries mentioned by Professor Wen Tiejun here do not include Japan for the time being, we generally say that Western countries should be counted as Japan's, and Japan is a creditor country.
What will happen if the United States owes debt?
According to Wen Tiejun, the United States, like Western Europe in those years, owed too much debt, and when Western Europe's debt was too high, it launched World War I and World War II. Now the West's debt is higher than the level of the two wars, so it is very worried that there will be a third war, and analyzes that the current globalization crisis is mainly caused by the high debt of the West.
America's approach to the crisis
Professor Wen Tiejun said that the United States has always suffered from crises, whether it is Obama, Trump, or Biden, they have relied on the issuance of additional currency to continue the current ailing economy of the United States. The trouble now is that a large number of additional currencies have been issued but due to the outbreak of the epidemic, the supply chain has been blocked, coupled with the Sino-US trade war that has aggravated the crisis, which is finally manifested in high debt and high inflation in the United States.
So Professor Wen Tiejun judged that the high debt and high inflation in the United States are its unpassable hurdles, making them fate, so in this case, the countries that will harvest the most creditors in the world are China and Japan, and now Japan ranks first and China ranks second.
Professor Wen Tiejun introduced that 20 years ago, when we were in deficit, Western countries demanded that we change the system, and now, China has become the largest creditor country, and the United States has become the largest debtor country.
We can't persuade the United States to change the system, on the one hand, we will not persuade, and even if we persuade, people will not listen. I am not Professor Daowen Tiejun who said that we cannot persuade the United States to change the system, is it the same as I thought.
Professor Wen Tiejun explained the reasons for going to war, no matter whether the West adopts trade alliances, restructuring and other means, it can not change the situation of high economic inflation, which will cause international capital to flow to East Asia, mainly to manufacturing countries such as Japan and China with a large real economy and relatively large exports.
In order to prevent the flow of capital to China and Japan, ideological struggles and wars such as the New Cold War, if they cannot be fought, will definitely lead to local hot wars. Therefore, there is a great possibility of a local hot war around China and around Japan.
In fact, my thoughts are somewhat different from Professor Wen Tiejun, first of all, capital flows to Japan, will the United States engage in a hot war with Japan? It is impossible, the United States does not need a hot war with Japan at all. Moreover, in the event of a local hot war, Japan may fight other countries with the United States, as evidenced by the quadrilateral alliance between the United States, Japan, India and Australia.
However, Professor Wen Tiejun said that the main reason for the war of aggression is that the trade surplus may also be established, because Professor Wen Tiejun has already said that Japan has also recently experienced a trade deficit.
If Japan has a trade deficit, then there is only one country with a trade surplus, so in the future, there will be no local hot war with Japan, only a local hot war with China, and that theory, the main reason for being invaded is the trade surplus, right. Because China has a trade surplus in East Asia and is the second largest creditor.
In short, I do not believe that the main reason for China's aggression in the 19th century was China's long-term trade surplus, but that our country was underdeveloped at that time and the Qing government was corrupt and incompetent. The trade surplus was not the main reason for our aggression, the main reason should be that our country was not strong enough at that time.
The logic of robbers is that when you have a lot of wealth, when you are doing well, when they are in crisis, they start to find ways to go out and rob, like the United States. For such powers, only you prepare the "shotgun" in your hand, and wait for them to come up and give a few shots. When they want to fight, they don't care if you are in surplus or deficit in trade, they only look at whether they can beat you, and whether it is cost-effective when they rob.
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