After an 18-month so-called "consultation period," the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia have finally taken an extremely dangerous step in nuclear submarine cooperation.
On the 13th local time, US President Biden met with Australian Prime Minister Albanese and British Prime Minister Sunak at the San Diego Naval Base in California, and announced a plan to equip Australia with nuclear submarines.
According to the statement after the tripartite meeting, the United States will sell three American-made Virginia-class attack nuclear submarines to Australia in the early 30s of this century, and then sell two more or more.
The three countries also plan to cooperate in the development of a new type of nuclear submarine based on American and British technology.
Screenshot of the Associated Press report (from left to right: Australian Prime Minister Albanese, US President Biden and British Prime Minister Sunak)
Before the political, legal and technical issues involved in US-UK-Australia nuclear submarine cooperation have been resolved, and the international community has not yet found a solution acceptable to all parties, the adverse movement of the three countries is undoubtedly another blatant provocation to the international nuclear non-proliferation regime and the overall security and stability of the Asia-Pacific region.
The hypocritical double standard of "satisfying American preferences"
In September 2021, the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia reached the Trilateral Security Partnership (AUKUS) agreement. As a core element, the United States and Britain, two nuclear-armed countries, will help the Australian Navy build a nuclear submarine force.
Since then, the three countries have taken continuous actions, causing great concern and vigilance in the international community.
The reason is obvious: US-UK-Australia nuclear submarine cooperation violates the object and purpose of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), sets a bad precedent for NPT nuclear-weapon States parties to export nuclear material and technology to non-nuclear-weapon States parties, and poses a serious risk of nuclear proliferation.
James Acton, co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, argued in a commentary that the impact of the United States and Britain on the international nuclear nonproliferation regime is negative and serious, "setting a troubling precedent."
Shortly after the Orkus agreement, IAEA Director General Grossi warned during his visit to the United States that such a move would prompt other countries to follow Australia's lead, raising serious proliferation risks and related legal issues.
Screenshot of the British newspaper The Guardian report
The authoritative journal Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists warns that as Australia becomes the world's first nuclear-weapon state to possess nuclear submarines, it is foreseeable that "very sensitive military nuclear technology will proliferate in the coming years with ease or no international safeguards."
Screenshot of the report on the website of the journal Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
At present, the nuclear fuel used by US and British nuclear submarines is 93.5% abundant weapons-grade highly enriched uranium.
According to the current safeguards system, the IAEA cannot effectively supervise the nuclear power reactors supplied by the United States and Britain to Australia and the weapons-grade nuclear materials they need, and cannot guarantee that relevant nuclear materials and technologies will not be diverted to the development of nuclear weapons.
A joint study released by the China Arms Control and Disarmament Association and the China Nuclear Strategic Planning Research Institute in July last year pointed out that the weapons-grade nuclear materials to be transferred by the United States and Britain to Australia are estimated to be used to make as many as 64-80 nuclear weapons.
Cover of the report "Dangerous Conspiracy: Nuclear Proliferation Risks of U.S.-U.K.-Australia Nuclear Submarine Cooperation."
The hypocrisy is that on the one hand, the United States and Britain support Australia's development of military nuclear technology, but on the other hand, they impose severe restrictions and suppression on the nuclear programs of Iran and other countries.
In the context of the unresolved Iranian nuclear and North Korean nuclear issues, this blatant "double standard" approach is bound to lead to further complication of related issues.
In the view of the American magazine "National Interest", the "Orkus" agreement exposes Washington's consistent double standards, once again showing that the United States "can easily change the nuclear non-proliferation regime to suit its own preferences."
Screenshot of the report of the US magazine "National Interest"
They may also have to bring Japan into the gang
US-UK-Australia nuclear submarine cooperation will not only greatly increase the risk of nuclear proliferation, but will inevitably stimulate a regional arms race and affect regional peace and stability.
In particular, this has had a direct impact on ASEAN's dominance in regional cooperation, and has therefore been strongly opposed by ASEAN countries in the first place.
Malaysian strategic analyst Bann commented that "Okus", a US-led alliance of English-speaking countries, ignores the opinions of Asia-Pacific countries and puts itself above multilateral constraints and external supervision, "it is difficult to get the recognition of the Asia-Pacific region, and the calculation will eventually fail."
Screenshot of the South China Morning Post report
Even New Zealand, which is an ally of the United States in the Asia-Pacific region, does not buy Australia's development of nuclear submarines.
New Zealand's then prime minister, Ardern, made it clear that the country would continue to enforce the 1985 ban on nuclear-powered ships and would never allow Australian nuclear submarines to sail into the waters near New Zealand.
New Zealand What's New: The Okus deal makes New Zealanders feel less safe because it's a forward-looking alliance designed to attack "enemy" targets. And forever banning Australian nuclear submarines from New Zealand ports "would be a good thing."
What is more alarming is that Japan, the only country that has suffered a nuclear attack and is currently being scolded for discharging nuclear contaminated water into the sea, may also fish in troubled waters with the support of the United States, Britain and Australia.
In January last year and January this year, Japan signed "reciprocal access agreements" with Australia and the United Kingdom to facilitate joint training between Japan's Self-Defense Forces and the armed forces of the two countries.
Some analysts believe that once the Japanese Diet passes these two agreements, it will mean that Japan has formally joined the "Okus" agreement.
Screenshot of a Nihon Keizai newspaper report
At the end of last year, when Australian Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Mars went to Tokyo to attend the Australia-Japan "2+2" annual meeting, he openly said that Australia hoped that Japan would be included in the "Okus" agreement bilaterally or through the trilateral mechanism of Japan, Australia and the United States.
Screenshot of the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) website
There is also news that the Defense Committee of the House of Commons of the British Parliament is exploring the extension of the "Okus" agreement to Japan.
In response to the abnormal actions of Britain and Japan, Healy, the shadow defense minister of the British Labour Party, said in an interview with the US media that Britain should adopt a realistic attitude if it involves military investment when seeking allies in the Asia-Pacific region. "Claiming that Britain is omnipotent and ubiquitous is not good for our military."
Screenshot of the report on the website of the American "Politico" (the title picture is Healy)
At the urging of China, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) considered US-UK-Australia nuclear submarine cooperation for the seventh consecutive time in the form of intergovernmental discussions at the recently concluded Board of Governors in March.
At the meeting, the Chinese representative reiterated that US-UK-Australia nuclear submarine cooperation poses a serious risk of nuclear proliferation, impacts the international nuclear non-proliferation regime, stimulates the arms race and undermines peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region, which has been widely questioned and opposed by regional countries and the international community
"China urges the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia to abandon the Cold War mentality and zero-sum game, faithfully fulfill their international obligations, and do more things conducive to regional peace and stability."
Source: Associated Press