This is a topic triggered by a micro-headline, and it comes from Zhou Libo, who prides himself on the founder of Haipai Qingkou!
Recently, Zhou Libo used his usual witticism to publish a content that could not be compared with Haipai's 800 poles, questioning China's new energy vehicles and green energy industry thinking.
He said that the development of the electric vehicle industry did not consider the long-term vision of "serious lack of electricity", and he already had a sense of "having a car without electricity". He also believes that wind power and the photovoltaic industry are in the same situation, and they are both "solving the problem of fifty with a hundred yuan".
In fact, the editor is also a layman on this topic, but there is always a feeling that the formulation of China's industrial policy will not be as good as a "Shanghai school clear mouth" who speaks witticisms? I doubt that.
First check the information, this set of data really shocked the editor!
In 2022, China's NEV production and sales will reach 7.058 million units and 6.887 million units, up 96.9% and 93.4% y/y, respectively, almost doubling explosive growth, maintaining the world's first place for eight consecutive years.
As for the wind power and photovoltaic industry, in 2022, the new installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic power generation in the country will exceed 120 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 21%, accounting for 13.8% of the electricity consumption of the whole society, setting a new record high, close to the domestic electricity consumption of urban and rural residents across the country. Again the first in the world!
From the perspective of the industrial chain, the entire global photovoltaic industry chain, China has about 70% of the production capacity, a large number of photovoltaic upstream industries are in the hands of China, and related exports account for 85% of the total global exports.
In this regard, China really did not save face for others! Perhaps because of this, the United States has been trying to suppress China's new energy industry. For example, photovoltaics, on the one hand, raise tariffs, on the other hand, greatly inhibit the export of China's photovoltaic products, anyway, is trying to grab this cake.
In general, China's new energy industry, including the electric vehicles and wind power and photovoltaic industries mentioned by Zhou Libo, are actually at the forefront of the world, which makes people red.
Just returning to his rather meaningful quips, I don't understand where his conclusions come from, and you can't talk nonsense for no reason, after all, Hao Lai is also a public figure! I thought that he was still researched and demonstrated, otherwise he would not have come so faithfully!
Although the editor is a layman, he also consulted some information, and I also want to talk about this topic that Mr. Zhou has a good heart!
Is China short of electricity? Of course, it is lacking, otherwise it would not be possible to invest huge amounts of money every year to painstakingly build facilities to increase power generation! Moreover, in the face of the continuous development of such a huge economy, energy supply is never an easy topic!
Of course, no country can claim that its energy has always been plentiful. But, it's like you ask a person, is there still a lack of money? He definitely lacks, there are ten thousand he will lack, there are ten million he will still lack, everyone is far enough away from their goal!
But from the perspective of power supply, it seems a bit heavy to say that the mainland is seriously short of electricity! In fact, the total power generation of the mainland power grid in 2022 will be 8.4 trillion kWh, ranking first in the world. It is worth noting that 69.77% of thermal power, 14.33% of hydropower, 8.19% of wind power, and 7.71% of others!
So how much electricity can new energy electric vehicles use?
In terms of electricity consumption, industry of course accounts for the lion's share, using 64.8% of electricity in 2022, from a proportional point of view, the mainland's current thermal power generation is enough to supply industrial electricity demand, while wind power, hydropower, photovoltaic power and nuclear power basically support the country's civil electricity consumption.
Electric vehicles use civilian electricity. If an electric car drives 18,000 kilometers per year and consumes 20 kilowatt-hours per 100 kilometers, the annual power consumption of a car is 3,600 kilowatt-hours.
By the end of 2022, the total number of new energy vehicles in the country will be about 13.1 million, and the total annual power consumption will be about 47 billion kWh. Although this number is huge, it is very small compared to the total power generation of 8.4 trillion, and it is not an exaggeration to describe it as the tip of the iceberg!
Even if new energy electric vehicles develop rapidly, the ownership may increase significantly, such as 6.887 million new energy vehicles sold last year, but it is drizzle compared to the 2% growth rate of the mainland's total power generation.
Even if the current power consumption reaches 100 million electric vehicles in the future, the total annual power consumption will be 360 billion kilowatt hours, which is less than a fraction of last year's total power generation of 8.4 trillion.
Of course, some places in our will also encounter power shortages, such as Chongqing, Chengdu and other places last summer, because of the impact of weather disasters there was a serious shortage of electricity, many electric vehicles suffered from charging. However, this is only a phenomenon of a short period of time in individual places, and should not be used as a criterion for a comprehensive strategy, let alone a choking diet.
It is estimated that the basis for Zhou Libo's conclusion of this series of conclusions may be some foreign news! For example, Switzerland in Europe. According to foreign media reports, Switzerland may become the first country in the world to restrict electric vehicles.
They are working on a draft plan to ban electric vehicles except for "absolutely essential trips" in winter when electricity is scarce, and "electric vehicles are not on the road unless necessary." ”
The reason, of course, is a real lack of electricity. Switzerland's electricity supply is too seasonal, it has many mountains and lakes, and relies on hundreds of hydroelectric power plants in the heart of the Alps in summer, which can easily meet the country's electricity needs in summer. But in winter, when energy demand surges, river levels drop, hydropower decreases, and Switzerland runs out of electricity.
But the lack of electricity in Switzerland or other countries does not mean that we cannot afford electric vehicles. Again, the national conditions are different, and talking about the issue aside from the national situation is itself a fundamental problem.
So why does Mr. Zhou still say that wind power and photovoltaic are "solving the problem of fifty with one hundred pieces"? His data is not laid out, others do not understand, but there is always data to speak!
As mentioned earlier, in 2022, the mainland wind power and photovoltaic power generation will exceed 1 trillion kWh, reaching 1.19 trillion kWh, an increase of 207.3 billion kWh over 2021, a year-on-year increase of 21%, accounting for 13.8% of the entire society's electricity consumption, an increase of 2 percentage points year-on-year. Wind power and photovoltaic power generation installed capacity are in the world's first!
For the first time, thermal power generation fell below 70%, and renewable energy power generation exceeded 30%, this structural change fully shows that our energy is moving towards a green and low-carbon direction, and the energy structure is more healthy and optimized.
At the same time, it also means that the focus of the global new energy industry is further shifted to China, and the key components such as photovoltaic modules, wind turbines and gearboxes produced by us account for 70% of the global market share, and renewable energy continues to maintain a leading position in the world. This cake, others will also blush!
It is also important to note that the rapid development of green energy has made a significant contribution to environmental improvement. It is estimated that in 2022, the mainland's renewable energy power generation capacity is equivalent to reducing domestic carbon dioxide emissions by about 2.26 billion tons, and the exported wind power photovoltaic products will reduce carbon dioxide emissions by about 573 million tons for other countries, with a total emission reduction of 2.83 billion tons.
This is a real emission reduction, but also a contribution to the world's environment, which Mr. Zhou will not ignore! Moreover, the improvement of the environment of green water and green mountains is the greatest people's livelihood and well-being, and it is the best embodiment of sustainable development!
Therefore, to sum up, using power consumption and lack of electricity to negate the industrial policy of developing new energy vehicles, and then questioning the green energy development strategy, is actually sitting on a crooked ass and choosing the wrong target!