The U20 Asian Cup was in full swing in the Central Asian country of Uzbekistan, and the U20 national football team, which was mired in the death group, was not favored before the match, because the current national football team performed poorly at all ages. Therefore, U20 participated in the Asian Cup this time, and many people thought that U20 might cause a lot of tragedy.
And this time the U20 national football team is divided into a very poor group, there are two national football rivals in the group, namely the Saudi Arabia team, the champion of the last U20, and the bitter home of the national football team, Japan, the other opponent Kyrgyzstan is relatively weaker, but it is not a fish belly team that can be slaughtered, so the national football team is divided into such a group, in order to get the top two in the group, many people feel that there is no hope before the game.
However, the national football team is a mysterious division that people can't understand, once they are placed on high hopes, they often perform very disappointingly, and once they are not placed on any hope, the performance is surprising and pleasant.
Facing the powerful Japanese team in the first round, the national football team took the lead to break the deadlock on the field and took a 1-0 lead, but the inexperienced national football team, coupled with the strength is indeed weaker than the Japanese team, and was finally scored two goals by the Japanese team, and finally 1:2. Although the game was lost, the U20 national football team showed the momentum to dare to fight and fight, as well as the more skillful technical and tactical cooperation is still eye-catching.
In the second game, the U20 national football team broke out in full force, and finally with skillful cooperation and the momentum to dare to fight, the national football team exceeded everyone's expectations, 2:0 clean and sharp to cut the previous U20 champion team Saudi Arabia, won the first victory of the U20 group stage, and ranked second in the group by virtue of goal difference.
At 20 pm Beijing time on March 9, the national football team will usher in the third round of the group stage, and the final battle of life and death, this match is very important for the national football team, if it wins, it will definitely qualify for the top two in the group. If you draw or lose, is there no possibility of qualifying? In fact, careful analysis, even if the national football team loses in the third round, there is still a high probability of qualifying, let's specifically analyze the various outcomes of the last game, as well as the probability analysis of the national football team.
If the national football team defeats Kyrgyzstan, it will be ironclad
In the first two rounds of the group, Japan won both games, ranking first in the group with a goal difference of 4 goals, the national football team won 1 and lost 1, with a goal difference of 1, ranking second in the group, Saudi Arabia was also 1-1, with a goal difference of -1, ranking third in the group, Kyrgyzstan lost both games, with a goal difference of -4, ranking fourth in the group.
In the final round of the national football team and Kyrgyzstan, the two teams of Japan and Saudi Arabia fought a life-and-death battle. If the national football team wins Kyrgyzstan in the last match, the points will reach 6 points, and another strong dialogue, whether it is Japan or Saudi Arabia, no matter who wins, the national team will finish at least second in the group.
Why do you say that? If the Japanese team defeated the Saudi team, the Japanese team had 9 points, the Saudi team had 3 points, and the national football team had 6 points, and the national football team would definitely be the second place in the group. So if Saudi Arabia defeated Japan and all three teams accumulated 6 points, why would the national football team still qualify for the right to qualify? This is because the rules for qualifying for this year's U20 Asian Cup are that if three teams have the same points, it depends on the results of the three teams playing against each other.
Since the national football team once defeated the Saudi Arabia team 2:0 in the group stage, only 1:2 to the Japanese team, so if these three teams play against each other, the national football team must have reached a goal difference of plus 1, so no matter what happens, the national football team is a goal difference of plus 1, then the game between the three teams, the national football team is at least ranked second among the three teams, so the national football team will definitely qualify.
So is it possible for the national football team to finish first in the group? This situation also exists, if the Saudi team beats the Japanese team 1:0 or 2:0, then in the goal difference between the 3 teams, the Saudi team will be -1 or 0, and the Japanese team will be 0 or -1, in this case, because the national football team is still a positive 1 goal difference, so the national football team will qualify at the top of the group, if the Saudi team beats the Japanese team 1:0, Saudi Arabia will still be eliminated, but if it is 2:0, the Saudi team will be second in the group, and the Japanese team will be eliminated.
The national football team draws Kyrgyzstan with a high probability of qualifying
Although the national football team defeated the Saudi team, let everyone see the strength of the national football team and the potential for future development, but the national football team has an old problem, that is, often in the game that it thinks it can definitely win, sometimes the national football team will lose some chain under the psychological effect of wanting to win and fearing loss.
What's more, although the Kyrgyz team lost all the first two games and accumulated 0 points, Kyrgyzstan still did not lose the possibility of qualifying, if the Japanese team defeated the Saudi team, and the national football team lost to the Kyrgyz team, then it is very likely that Saudi Arabia, the national football team, Kyrgyzstan all accumulated three points, which depends on the goal difference between each other, so the Kyrgyzstan team will still fight to the death with the national football team in the last game.
If Kyrgyzstan forces the national football team to draw, the national football team accumulates 4 points after the end of this game, then the results of the match between the Japanese team and the Saudi team are related to the qualification situation of the national football team, if the Japanese team beats the Saudi team, then the Saudi team still only accumulates 3 points, and the national football team has a 4-point advantage and will still qualify.
If Japan and Saudi Arabia draw, then the national football team is the same as Saudi Arabia, and due to the goal difference advantage between the national team and Saudi Arabia, then the national football team will still be qualified. The only situation in which the national football team cannot qualify is if the Saudi team beats the Japanese team, then Saudi Arabia and the Japanese team have 6 points, and the two will join hands to qualify.
Kyrgyzstan is still likely to qualify
As we all know, the national football team has never been stable enough, especially for the U20 youth army, psychological warfare is still an extremely important test. Once the national football team loses to Kyrgyzstan in the last game, does it mean that the national football team has no hope of qualifying?
In fact, even if the national football team loses to Kyrgyzstan in the final round, it is still possible to qualify, of course, provided that the Saudi team loses to the Japanese team, and from the comparison of the strength of the Saudi team and the Japanese team, the Japanese team is obviously stronger than the Saudi team.
Because the national football team lost to Japan 1:2, and Saudi Arabia lost 0:2 to China, and in the process of playing Kyrgyzstan, Japan won 3:0, Saudi Arabia only won 1:0, so the strength of the Japanese team is obviously above the Saudi team, so the match between Saudi Arabia and Japan, the result is likely to be that the Japanese team wins.
Once Saudi Arabia loses to Japan in the last game, the national football team loses to Kyrgyzstan, then the three teams have the same 3 points, it depends on the goal difference between each other to determine who can qualify, among these three teams, the national football team and Saudi Arabia have a 2 goal difference advantage, so as long as the national football team does not lose to Kyrgyzstan by 2 goals and above, then the national football team will maintain a positive goal difference advantage, if the national football team only loses to Kyrgyzstan 0:1, then the goal difference between the three teams, the national football team is still positive 1, It is still possible to get the second appearance of the group.
If the national team loses 0:2 or above to Kyrgyzstan, Kyrgyzstan will have a goal difference of plus 1 or more between the three teams, and Kyrgyzstan will qualify from the group.
In other words, once the Saudi team loses to the Japanese team, it is impossible to qualify, because in the case of 3 points with the Chinese team and Kyrgyzstan, Saudi Arabia's goal difference is already -1, and it is certain that it will not be able to qualify.
Through the above analysis, we can know that the right to qualify for the last game has been firmly in the hands of the national football team itself, as long as it defeats the Kyrgyz team, the national football team will definitely get the right to qualify from the group, and may even win the first place in the group.