Airport stations are crowded, tourist attractions are busy, cinema lines are full, business districts and parks are bustling... As the first Spring Festival in the three years since the epidemic no longer advocates "celebrating the New Year in place", this year's tourism, catering, cultural entertainment, retail and other consumer markets have delivered outstanding report cards.
The recovery of popularity has brought about economic recovery, and it can be seen from this year's "fireworks rekindled" Spring Festival holiday that mainland consumption recovery is obvious, and the data show the strong resilience of the domestic consumer market.
Will the consumption recovery trend in 2023 "go all the way"?
Service-oriented consumption grew strongly
In the past year, the mainland's economic operation has been hit by multiple uncertainties, especially the restrictions on gathering and contact consumption caused by the epidemic, which has put "leg shackles" on the entire consumer market.
With the continuous optimization of epidemic prevention and control policies and the continuous efforts of policies and measures to expand domestic demand and promote consumption, consumption has shown a momentum of recovery, ushering in a key turning point at the end of last year; Immediately after the epidemic exceeded expectations, consumption returned strongly during the Spring Festival.
According to the data center of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, 308 million domestic tourism trips during the Spring Festival holiday this year, a year-on-year increase of 23.1%, recovered to 88.6% of the same period in 2019; Domestic tourism revenue reached 375.843 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30%, recovering to 73.1% of the same period in 2019. According to the Ministry of Commerce, the sales of key retail and catering enterprises nationwide during the Spring Festival increased by 6.8% compared with the same period last year. Statistics from the National Film Administration show that the box office of mainland films in the Spring Festival reached 6.758 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.89%, ranking second in the box office of the Spring Festival file in film history...
The popularity of tourist attractions has recovered
With the restoration of consumer confidence and the reproduction of consumption scenarios, key goods and services have returned to vision, igniting the public's enthusiasm for consumption.
We found that in the tide of consumption recovery, the growth of "service" consumption was strong, and the three years of depression allowed people to effectively release in eating, drinking and entertainment. The "commodity" consumption is somewhat weak in comparison, such as buying a house, buying a car and other bulk consumption, consumers are still cautious.
This year's "Go to a Windy Place" blew everyone to Dali, Yunnan, the hottest place for national recovery. In the face of a large number of tourists, local traders said: "Although the flow of people this year is at least twice as much as in 19 years, what is different is that everyone only plays and does not buy things, and the flower cakes cannot be sold." "Service consumption, commodity consumption is reluctant.
However, it is worth mentioning that the growth of clothing consumption in commodity consumption is more obvious, and the flow of people in the garment areas of major business districts during the Spring Festival has increased significantly, some are consumption to welcome the New Year to add new clothes, and some are the increased demand for travel, which helps the replacement demand of all kinds of clothes. In general, the necessary attributes of clothing consumption after the liberalization of the epidemic have been highlighted.
The Spring Festival is an important window to observe the mainland's economic trend throughout the year, and the outbreak of consumption during the Spring Festival holiday is only a starting point, which is a good start for the "2023 Consumption Boost Year", and also reflects the resilience and potential of the mainland's economic development.
The consumption potential of third- and fourth-tier cities needs to be tapped
While the recovery of the life service industry is accelerating, all sectors of society are also focusing on "tapping consumption potential", of which the sinking market has become one of the priorities.
The 2022 "100 Cities, 1000 Streets, 1000 Stores" Consumption Index Report proposes that the consumption structure of first- and second-tier cities has been relatively mature and stable, and the space for consumption expansion and upgrading may be relatively small, while the overall consumption system of third- and fourth-tier cities has yet to grow and develop, and the consumption upgrade needs of residents may be more prominent in cities with larger needs.
According to the report, the top 20 cities in the total consumer health index in 2022 are: Huzhou, Tianjin, Maoming, Langfang, Beijing, Shanghai, Fuyang, Chuzhou, Zunyi, Mianyang, Yulin, Zhanjiang, Dezhou, Chengdu, Dalian, Tangshan, Jiujiang, Yueyang, Hangzhou and Lianyungang. Among the top 20 cities, third- and fourth-tier cities accounted for 14 seats, accounting for a significant increase over the same period of the previous year.
These third- and fourth-tier cities generally have the characteristics of small foreign population, single and stable industrial structure, and relatively reasonable housing prices, so to a certain extent, they can help local residents maintain a relatively stable consumption state and promote the steady development of the regional economy, but it also shows that there is still consumption potential to be tapped.
Under the background of rural revitalization, the county has great potential for development
The report also pointed out that compared with large cities, residents in third- and fourth-tier cities have a stronger concept of rational consumption, and pay more attention to "living within their means". They are more able to keep their "money bags", tend to plan reasonably, and even set a monthly consumption limit and a maximum number of transactions to reasonably match their income.
In this way, these data also reflect that the recovery of low-end consumption in the mainland may be more difficult than that of the high-end consumption.
For example, during the Spring Festival, the hotel accommodation industry was hot, and many hotels and guesthouses doubled their prices, but this could not stop the enthusiasm of consumers, and many high-priced rooms were still snapped up. The rooms for a thousand yuan a night are full one after another, but there are still two or three hundred rooms available? Some homestay owners near scenic spots explained this phenomenon: "Many high-spending groups travel and have the ability to stay and play for a long time, so some high-priced hotels will continue to be full; However, in the other part, low-end consumer groups generally travel for a few days, so the turnover rate is relatively high, and low-end hotels and B&Bs are also available. ”
The majority of Chinese consumers, a large part of the population is ordinary consumers, "dare not consume, unwilling to consume, inconvenient consumption" is also the main pain point of the current lack of effective demand, relevant consumption promotion policies and measures need to continue to exert, especially the consumption potential of third- and fourth-tier cities needs to continue to tap.
Where is the road after consumption picks up?
The consumption explosion of the Spring Festival brought a burst of joy, but after the market entered a normal period of non-festival, how long can the subsequent inertia force last? This is worth pondering.
First of all, we should focus on continuing this good trend and take advantage of the momentum to recover and expand consumption. After the Spring Festival, many places introduced a new round of measures to promote consumption, including issuing consumption coupons, creating new consumption scenarios, holding special theme activities, supporting the e-commerce industry, and canceling consumption restrictive clauses.
For example, Shandong Province gave full play to its advantages in cultural tourism resources, proposed the theme tourism year of "Enjoying Shandong in Qilu", and carried out brand activities such as Qingdao International Beer Festival, Taishan International Mountaineering Festival, and Confucius Culture Festival; Hunan Province has promoted the pilot project of domestic and foreign trade integration, supported Changsha to build an international consumption center city, and driven other cities and prefectures to build regional consumption centers.
Increase consumption scenarios and promote consumption desire
Second, it is necessary to stabilize the "big head" of consumption and promote bulk consumption. Automobiles, home appliances, catering and home furnishing are known as the "four kings" in the field of consumption, of which automobile consumption ranks first, accounting for about 10% of the total social zero, which is an important window to witness the vitality of the market.
In 2022, automobile consumption has made an important contribution to the mainland's economic development, with annual new vehicle sales of 26.864 million units, an increase of 2.1%, ranking first in the world for 14 consecutive years, and ranking first in the world in new energy vehicle production and sales for 8 consecutive years.
Therefore, this year, stable cars are still the "big head" of stable consumption, and many places have issued documents to promote mass consumption such as automobiles. The Department of Commerce of Shanxi Province and other 17 departments issued the Notice on Further Invigorating Automobile Circulation and Expanding Automobile Consumption, supporting the purchase and use of new energy vehicles, stabilizing and expanding automobile consumption, accelerating the activation of the second-hand car market, and further promoting the recovery of automobile consumption and the release of potential. The "Several Measures on Further Consolidating and Enhancing the Trend of Economic Stabilization and Improvement" announced by Jiangxi Province mentioned that it will organize and carry out promotional activities such as the promotion and application of new energy vehicles and the promotion of green and smart home appliance consumption, and implement the continuation of the policy of exemption from vehicle purchase tax for new energy vehicles.
Finally, the recovery of consumption is not achieved overnight, even if more and more consumption scenarios open, it still depends on the repair of household income. Affected by a variety of factors, the increase in per capita disposable income of urban and rural residents has slowed down in recent years, and the nominal growth rate of per capita disposable income has declined from 8.9% in 2017-2019 to 6.3% per year in 2020-2022. The household savings rate increased from 29.9% in 2019 to 33.5% in 2022, and the increase in the savings rate also led to a significant decline in the growth rate of household consumption.
Data source: National Bureau of Statistics, "Guangxuntong" urban data platform
The improvement of residents' consumption confidence and spending power is rooted in the improvement of income level. Therefore, whether the economic development and employment situation can be significantly improved this year is directly related to the recovery of consumption.
In general, the mainland consumer market will show a gradual recovery trend this year, as for whether it can return to the pre-epidemic level or exceed the expected development, it is necessary to comprehensively look at the overall economic trend, the trend of residents' income, and the introduction of policies to expand domestic demand and promote consumption.
Fortunately, after the liberalization of epidemic control, the order of life in the past has been highly restored, and the movement of people has become free. As long as people move, consumption will naturally keep up, and various elements of society can further flow. After waiting for the "scar effect" of the epidemic to fade, 2023 can finally see a glimmer of hope.
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