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21 Jun: It is said that "choice is sometimes more important than ability", and to make the right choice at a critical moment in life, "foresight" is an indispensable condition. So what exactly is considered "visionary"? This question doesn't seem easy to answer, but it's not entirely impossible to summarize the rules. The article shared by 21 Jun tonight expounds the meaning of "foresight" from 3 angles, read it carefully, I believe it can give you a little different inspiration.
Source 丨Fushu(ID:kolfrc)
Author 丨Liu Yiyi
Special thanks to the anchor of this issue: Tianshu
What is "vision"?
When many people talk about foresight, they are talking about some big and empty concepts, what are far-sighted and strategic, these concepts lack practicality. In other words, very ungrounded.
What is foresight? How can we be far-sighted?
We have no way of getting started.
Regarding the definition of vision, Luo Zhenyu said a sentence:
The vision of the person who really does things is to grasp the current and future trends in time, to see things from different perspectives, and to maintain sufficient possibilities for iteration.
By learning to learn from young people, constantly embracing new things and information, and being vigilant against the blunting of knowledge structures and skills, you can ensure that you are not left behind by the times.
Looking at the value of what is done now from the perspective of the future, and from the meaning of the retrospective process of the result, we have mastered the ability to see things from different perspectives.
Start repairing the roof when the sun is shining, constantly break through the comfort zone, and maintain the hunger of the cause, and you have iterative thinking.
All in all, that's vision.
Learn from outstanding young people,
It is a shortcut to keep pace with the times
"Ginger is old and spicy", "I've traveled more salt than you've ever eaten"... The admiration of the elderly, or the obsession of the elderly with their own abilities, can be seen everywhere.
When I was young, I hated the indiscriminate age crushing from the elderly. However, after 30 years, I see people in their 20s who will also be dismissive.
It wasn't until 2016 that something happened that changed me.
One day, a young man in my unit pushed me the public account of a knowledge blogger and asked:
"You usually like to read, this number is run by one of my apprentices, every week to publish a book-breaking article, there is also a voice, very interesting."
I didn't take it seriously at first, I've been reading books for more than 30 years, do I still need to read articles like this and listen to such voices?
If someone else's interpretation is wrong, doesn't that affect you from actually reading a book?
After a while, he sent me a link saying that the knowledge blogger had started a class, teaching people "how to interpret a book and become a storyteller." The apprentice gave her two places, just go together.
Since you signed up, you can only study. Unexpectedly, I couldn't stop listening to it, and then I tried his method, which really worked.
From this, I began a special path of writing - writing "listening manuscripts" for each listening column.
In less than half a year, I signed up for several platforms, read the manuscript every month, and the income exceeded the main business. Turning hobbies into means of making money is a skill that young people have given me.
Young people have a strong sense of smell, and many of the things they do represent the trend of the times.
Teacher Liu Run mentioned in the column that the "post-metaphor culture" of learning from young people. The term was coined by the American anthropologist Margaret Mead.
Mead argues that:
"All of us have to learn from good young people. Not because they understand the future better, but because it is they who make up the future. ”
Change is getting faster and faster. This means that the value accumulated by past experience is getting lower and lower. It can even be said that the really valuable experience comes from the younger generation.
Therefore, "Manager Monthly" will take the "reverse mentoring system" as one of the "8 management rules" leading to the future.
That is, senior managers learn new ideas and new technologies from the younger generation, and you are not only their mentor, but also their students.
In this regard, good managers can keep a clear head. Luo Zhenyu once said to Peking University students: "If I have some views that are different from yours, then 80% of them are wrong." ”
The fastest and easiest way to touch the future trend is to stare at the powerful young people around you, see what books they are reading, what they are doing, what they are interested in...
Learn to learn from people younger than yourself, and you have the foresight to keep pace with the times and even become a leader.
Anticipate the results before doing things,
Learn to seek value for the future
I particularly like what Steven Covey said:
"Many people work hard and hard, only to find that the ladder to success is on the wrong wall."
Many of us do things before doing things, regardless of the goal, do not look at the end, just simply bury our heads in hard work. As for how valuable the things are, many people don't think about it at all, so the ladder is in the wrong position.
Before watching "Poor Dad Rich Dad", there was a story in the book that gave me a deep shock.
There was no water in one village, and the village chief commissioned two young people to supply water to the village. The villagers paid them.
The first young man, Ed, was a typical activist, who immediately bought two large barrels and traveled between lakes and villages 10 miles away every day, earning money every day.
Another young man, Bill, has been missing since signing the contract. Six months later, Bill returned to the village with a construction team and an investment.
It turned out that in the past six months, Bill had made a business plan, found investments, registered the company, and hired professionals for the construction of the project.
Bill then spent more than a year building a system of water pipes from the lake to the village.
The day the pipeline began to run officially, Ed's business was destroyed. The action-oriented Ed only made a year and a half of money.
Why did Bill beat Ed? Because Bill knows how to ask what his goal is before doing things, what is the value and impact of transporting water in buckets every day?
Many times, we talk about foresight and feel very far away. In fact, everyone can do it, before doing things, ask yourself what kind of end you want to run to, and what kind of goals you have in mind.
Start backwards from the finish line and assess whether what you are doing now is worth it. If it's not worth it, is there a better way to do it?
This better approach is often the one that gives us a lot of foresight.
Once saw a "3-10 rule" in a book, that is, before doing something, ask yourself how you will see it 10 hours later, 10 months later, 10 years later.
If after 10 hours you feel that this thing is meaningless, then don't do it. The more it stands the test of time and can produce compound interest value in time, the more valuable it is to do.
This is what Luo Zhenyu said in "Knowledge is Power":
"All the people in this world who really understand the wealth code are looking for value in the future."
Learn to start with future outcomes and measure what you should do.
When you learn to find value for the future, you will be more insightful and far-sighted than others.
When the sun is shining, start repairing the roof
In Black Swan, Taleb refers to "black swan events", referring to events that have a small probability but have a huge impact.
Black swan events exist in various fields, business, scientific research, and personal life. For example, a financial storm, a snow disaster, a serious illness, an unemployment, a scam...
Black swan events can often directly destroy a person or a family.
I think that to measure whether a person has foresight, the ultimate indicator should be to see whether the person has the ability to resist black swan events, whether they know how to make reasonable countermeasures against the risk that they cannot see or touch, and may only occur once or twice in a lifetime.
Because even if we do 99.9% right, as long as there is a small probability of 0.1% black swan event, we can all the gains accumulated in doing the right thing, and even amplify the losses of dozens of times or hundreds of times.
Cheng Jia mentioned in "Good Study" that everyone should have a "backup system" in order to cope with small probability events.
The professional backup system can be the "ABZ plan" of LinkedIn founder Hoffman.
Plan A refers to long-term work, Plan B refers to new career opportunities for oneself, and Plan Z is designed to deal with the worst.
For example, to cope with unemployment, you must set aside "risk funds" in advance to ensure that after you lose your job, you can live well for about half a year.
For example, to deal with diseases, you can save a certain amount of money every month, go to the disease account, buy a reliable insurance for yourself, and know a few more doctors.
Of course, the best way is to continue to accumulate skills, do a good job of investment and financial management, learn to avoid risks, with these, you have won a "safe space" for yourself to deal with "black swan events".
Ma Yun once said in a speech at Lakeside University:
I kept reminding myself to fix the roof on sunny days and not to wait until it rained. It's important to fix the roof when the sun is shining, and to hide in the wind and rain.
When the sun is shining, it is foresight to be able to "stupidly" repair the roof.
Foresight is not mysterious. When we learn to learn from young people, learn to measure the value of things from a future perspective, and know how to use backup systems to cope with small probability events in life, we have a vision.
Writer Feng Liangnu said: "The world will give way to those who have goals and visions. ”
Source / This article was first published in FuShu (ID: kolfrc), Million New Middle Class Life Cognition Academy. Author: Liu Yiyi, Fushu contracted author, parent-child consultant
Edited by / Li Yutong
Anchor / Tianshu
Image source / Figureworm
About the anchor of this issue
Tianshu
People are funny; the world is a playground. Wait, wait, wait until the feelings turn into wine. Personal public number: Salix-3, let's talk about it!
21 Jun
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