Trade in agricultural products is an important part of the mainland's "three rural areas" work, especially agricultural foreign cooperation. Document No. 1 of the Central Committee in 2023 pointed out that the role of international trade in agricultural products should be brought into play and the strategy of diversification of agricultural imports should be deeply implemented. In this issue, experts are invited to discuss related issues.
compere
Xu Xiangmei, director and researcher of the theory department of the Economic Daily
The integration of mainland agriculture into the international market has accelerated
Moderator: What is the significance of agricultural trade to agricultural and rural development? What changes have taken place in the mainland's agricultural trade since joining the World Trade Organization in 2001?
Liu Yizhuo (Research Fellow, Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, Ministry of Commerce): Agricultural trade is an important part of the mainland's foreign trade, a necessary means for the overall utilization of resources in the domestic and international markets of agriculture, and a key hub for smoothing the domestic and international dual circulation in the agricultural field.
Optimizing the structure of agricultural products and increasing the proportion of high-tech and high-value-added agricultural products in imports and exports will help promote agricultural transformation and upgrading. On the one hand, expanding the import of high-quality seeds and seedlings, advanced technology and equipment, safe and efficient pesticide fertilizers and high-end agricultural products will better meet the needs of domestic consumption and agricultural industry upgrading; On the other hand, optimizing the quality, packaging, storage and transportation standards of export agricultural products and increasing the added value of product exports will help enhance the international competitiveness of mainland agricultural products and promote agriculture to move towards the high end of the global industrial chain value chain.
Trade in agricultural products is an important lever to help farmers increase their income and become rich. Especially for some western regions with agriculture as the leading industry, the export of advantageous and characteristic agricultural products has made important contributions to consolidating the achievements of poverty alleviation and promoting common prosperity. For example, from January to November 2022, Meitan in Guizhou, which topped the list of "China's Top 100 Tea Counties", exported US$47.586 million in tea, driving about 351,000 tea farmers to increase their income.
Trade in agricultural products is an important measure to promote rural prosperity and development. The per capita arable land area of the mainland is less than 1/2 of the world average, and the moderate import of agricultural products can convert the saved land resources into uses, bring higher economic benefits or environmental protection value, and help build beautiful villages that are ecologically livable. In 2022, mainland soybeans and cotton imports were 91.081 million tons and 2.026 million tons respectively, saving a total of 47.018 million hectares of land resources. In addition, taking the export of advantageous agricultural products as the center, extending the industrial chain and promoting the integrated development of rural primary, secondary and tertiary industries will also help to achieve a rich life for farmers and harmonious development in rural areas.
China's accession to the WTO is a new starting point for the mainland's agricultural opening up to the outside world, and has opened a new stage in accelerating the integration of mainland agriculture into the international market. Since China's accession to the WTO, the mainland has earnestly fulfilled its commitments, and tariffs on agricultural products have dropped from 23.2 percent in 2001 to 15.2 percent in 2010, about one-quarter of the world's average tariff on agricultural products, and one of the countries with the lowest tariff levels on agricultural products in the world. The dividends of the mainland's agricultural opening up have been continuously released, and agricultural trade has shown a development trend from small to large and from weak to strong.
The scale of trade has reached a new level. From 2001 to 2022, the mainland's agricultural trade volume increased from US$27.9 billion to US$334.32 billion, an increase of about 11 times, with an average annual growth rate of about 12.6%. Among them, the export value increased from US$16.07 billion to US$98.26 billion, with an average annual growth rate of about 9%; The import value increased from US$11.83 billion to US$236.06 billion, with an average annual growth rate of about 15.3%. The high-level opening up of mainland agriculture to the outside world has also brought development opportunities to the world. Since China's accession to the WTO, the growth rate of China's agricultural imports has been significantly higher than that of exports, and since 2004, it has turned from a long-term surplus to a deficit and has steadily expanded. From 2004 to 2022, the deficit increased from US$4.7 billion to US$137.8 billion, with an average annual growth rate of about 20.6%.
Trade products are becoming increasingly diverse. Since China's accession to the WTO, the mainland's imports of agricultural products have become more and more abundant. In addition to traditional imported agricultural products such as grain, cotton, and oilseeds, a large number of high-end and new and exotic agricultural products have also crossed the sea to the tables of domestic consumers, satisfying the people's yearning for a better life. For example, Australian kiwifruit, Chilean cherries, Peruvian blueberries, Ecuadorian bananas and white shrimp, Uruguayan beef, etc. In terms of exports, the proportion of exports of labor-intensive products such as aquatic products, vegetables and fruits has always been high, but the export channels of characteristic and high-quality agricultural products are smoother. In 2022, the export value of tea, Chinese medicinal materials and flowers in the mainland will be US$2.08 billion, US$950 million and US$490 million, respectively, 4.9 times, 3.9 times and 13.3 times that of 2001.
The "circle of friends" of trade has gradually expanded. As the door of agriculture opens wider and wider, the mainland's agricultural trading partners are also more diversified. The number of countries and regions trading agricultural products with the mainland has increased from 198 in 2001 to 218 in 2022, including 189 import partners and 212 export partners.
Trade formats are more abundant. New formats and models of agricultural product trade, such as cross-border e-commerce, overseas warehouses, and foreign trade comprehensive service enterprises, continue to emerge, continuously releasing new momentum for the growth of mainland agricultural product trade. In 2022, the cross-border e-commerce trade volume of mainland agricultural products will be US$8.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25.9%. Among them, exports were 1.21 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 153%; Imports were US$6.89 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.7%.
With the gradual strengthening of the integration of mainland agriculture and the world, the share of agricultural trade in the international market has continued to increase, and the proportion of agricultural trade in the world has increased from 3% in 2001 to 14.2% in 2021, rising from 11th to 2nd, second only to the United States. In terms of exports, the mainland is the world's fifth largest exporter of agricultural products, accounting for 4% of the world's agricultural exports in 2021, and the export of agricultural products such as apples, garlic, ginger, and tea ranks first in the world. In terms of imports, the mainland is the world's largest importer of agricultural products, accounting for 10.2% of the world's agricultural imports in 2021, and is the world's largest buyer of agricultural products such as grain, cotton, and meat.
At the same time, the mainland has actively participated in multilateral and bilateral agricultural negotiations, gradually changing from a recipient of international agricultural rules to a participant. Actively promote the reform of the World Trade Organization and play an important role in promoting global agricultural trade, signing 19 free trade agreements with 26 important agricultural trading partners such as ASEAN and Australia, most of which have a liberalization level of agricultural products exceeding 90%, and agricultural trade with free trade partners accounted for 39.4% of the mainland's total agricultural trade in 2022. In addition, by actively participating in the reform of the global agricultural governance system, taking the initiative to set the agenda of topics and guiding the formulation of rules, the mainland occupies an increasingly important position in the international discourse system.
Continue to maintain the "big in, small out" trade pattern
Host: What is the import and export situation of mainland agricultural products in 2022, and why do you emphasize the implementation of the strategy of diversification of agricultural product imports?
Tian Zhihong (Professor and Director of the International Agricultural Trade Research Center, School of Economics and Management, China Agricultural University): Mainland agricultural trade has continued to make efforts, imports and exports have maintained growth, showing good resilience in unfavorable international environments such as global inflation and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. According to Chinese customs data, the import and export volume of agricultural products reached US$334.32 billion in 2022, an increase of 9.9% over the previous year. Among them, imports were 236.06 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 7.4%; exports were 98.26 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%; The trade deficit was US$137.80 billion, an increase of 1.7% year-on-year, continuing to maintain the trade pattern of "large in, small out". Compared with the growth rate of all commodities trade in the mainland during the same period, the export and import of agricultural products were 5.0 and 3.1 percentage points higher respectively, and the trade of agricultural products was more dynamic than that of other products.
Among them, one feature worth paying attention to is that the growth rate of exports is significantly higher than that of imports. From 2017 to 2021, the growth rate of imports was higher than the growth rate of exports for five consecutive years, and it reversed in 2022, and the growth rate of exports was 2.23 times that of imports. The main reason is that during the year, factors such as monetary easing and regional conflicts in the international community promoted a sharp rise in the international agricultural market price, accompanied by sharp fluctuations, and relatively stable domestic prices stimulated the export of agricultural products to a certain extent. Another feature is that the increase in the trade deficit has decreased significantly. From 2017 to 2021, the annual growth rate of the trade deficit was between 14.0% and 42.9%, and the annual growth rate of the trade deficit in 2022 was as low as 1.7%, mainly due to the increase in export growth and the decrease in import growth. It is worth mentioning that due to the gradual transmission of international inflation and commodity price fluctuations to the country, it has brought great uncertainty to the recent import and export trade of mainland agricultural products.
From the perspective of product structure, mainland import and export products show strong complementarity, the export of competitive advantage products has increased significantly, and the import scale of products with strong consumer demand has increased, which is conducive to obtaining exchange benefits in the international market. In 2022, mainland agricultural exports will be concentrated in aquatic products, vegetables and fruits, accounting for 22.29%, 17.58% and 6.94% of the export value respectively. Imported agricultural products were concentrated in edible oilseeds, livestock products and cereals, accounting for 27.68%, 21.67% and 8.26% of imports respectively. Among them, the annual growth rate of aquatic products and vegetable exports was 5% and 9.2%; The import value of edible oilseeds increased significantly, with an annual growth rate of 13.4%. In the past decade, the product structure of agricultural trade has been greatly adjusted, and the import scale of livestock products, grains and fruits has increased the most, and agricultural trade has met the changes in consumer demand brought about by the continuous growth of residents' income, including the increase in consumption quantity, the expansion of product scope and the improvement of quality requirements.
From the perspective of major trading partners, agricultural export markets are increasingly diversified, and import markets are still highly concentrated. The top five export markets in 2022 are Hong Kong, Japan, the United States, South Korea and Vietnam, with a total export value of US$44.28 billion, accounting for 45.1% of the total agricultural exports, lower than the top five export markets in 2021 accounting for 46.2% of exports. The top five import markets in 2022 are Brazil, the United States, Thailand, New Zealand and Australia, with a total import value of US$130.46 billion, accounting for 54.8% of the total imports of agricultural products, higher than the top five import sources in 2021 accounting for 53.2% of imports.
The import sources of some bulk agricultural products show a trend of diversification. Soybean imports are mainly from Brazil, the United States, Argentina, Uruguay and Canada, accounting for 98.9% of total soybean imports in 2022, compared with the previous year, imports from Uruguay and Canada increased, and imports from Brazil, the United States and Argentina decreased. The sources of corn imports are mainly concentrated in the United States and Ukraine, and imports from the two countries accounted for 97.60% of the total corn imports in 2022, which was reduced to a certain extent compared with the previous year, and the decline mainly occurred in corn imports from Ukraine, which was more obviously affected by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. The main sources of edible vegetable oil imports are Indonesia, Malaysia, Russia, Ukraine and Brazil, with a total of 7.264 million tons imported from the above five countries in 2022, accounting for 87.9% of the total edible vegetable oil imports, compared with the previous year, imports from the above countries have decreased, and due to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, imports from Ukraine have decreased by 65.6%.
From the perspective of domestic regional distribution, the eastern coastal region has always been the main area of mainland agricultural product trade. According to customs statistics in the first 11 months of 2022, Guangdong, Shanghai, Jiangsu and Shandong are the provinces and cities with the largest agricultural product imports in the country, and the import value of the four provinces and cities accounts for 47.5% of the national import value. Shandong, Guangdong, Fujian, Zhejiang and Jiangsu are the provinces with a large export scale in the country, and the export volume of the five provinces accounts for 62.1% of the national export volume; In 2022, the export value of agricultural products in Guangdong Province increased by 64.4%, and the total trade volume surpassed Shandong and ranked first in the country.
Maintaining stable and sustainable agricultural import trade is of great significance to the stable supply of mainland agricultural products and the sustainable development of agriculture. The import diversification strategy emphasizes the diversification of import trade, expanding the source of imports and the scope of imported products, expanding imports of important agricultural substitutes and imports from multiple alternative markets, and avoiding excessive dependence on a single market. Implementing the strategy of diversifying agricultural imports is an inevitable choice and effective way for the mainland's agricultural development, which is specifically manifested in the following aspects.
First, ensure the stable and safe supply of grain and important agricultural products. Under the limitation of insufficient domestic production capacity and comparative advantages, it is necessary to ensure the supply of some agricultural products through imports, and multiple sources are conducive to stabilizing the scale of imports. For specific agricultural products with a low level of self-sufficiency, if there are special circumstances such as poor international logistics caused by regional conflicts and export restrictions by individual countries, the import diversification strategy will be an important starting point to ensure the stability of the supply of important domestic agricultural products. The second is to prevent the impact of international instability. In recent years, the international political and economic situation has been changing, geopolitical hot spots have continued, international trade risks have intensified, and import diversification is an important way to mitigate the impact of international market fluctuations. The third is to protect domestic agricultural security. Import diversification can make full use of market competition from more import sources and importers, reduce excessive dependence on specific import sources, and avoid being monopolized by overseas exporters or suppliers. The fourth is to achieve the rational allocation and utilization of global agricultural resources at a higher level. The mainland has always adhered to the correct direction of economic globalization and actively promoted the opening of agricultural product markets. The China International Import Expo, held since 2018, is the world's first import-themed national-level exhibition, which is an international platform built by the mainland to take the initiative to open its market to the world and promote a new round of high-level opening up, so as to discover tradable products in a larger range and find more agricultural trading partners, especially to provide agricultural products for some developing countries and promote the rational allocation of global agricultural resources.
The international trade base plays the role of export "leader"
Moderator: What achievements has the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs achieved so far in building a base for high-quality development of international trade?
Zhao Xuejian (Director of the Liaison and Cooperation Department of the Trade Promotion Center of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs): In order to give full play to the important role of agricultural trade in helping high-quality and efficient agriculture, rural livability and work, and farmers' prosperity, and promote the upgrading of agricultural trade, in 2021, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs launched the identification and cultivation of high-quality agricultural international trade development bases (hereinafter referred to as "international trade bases"), planning to build about 500 international trade bases during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, cultivate and build a number of industrial agglomeration degrees, high production standards, high export added value, The backbone of agricultural foreign trade with high brand recognition and high comprehensive service level. Through two-way organic connection with domestic and foreign markets, international factors, advanced concepts, market channels and brand effects are transmitted to the middle reaches of the domestic industrial chain, so as to achieve "external promotion of internal" and enhance the overall international competitiveness of Chinese agricultural enterprises and agricultural products. Up to now, 231 international trade bases have been recognized.
In the past two years, in the face of complex and severe international and domestic situations, the construction of the international trade base has focused on improving the quality of export agricultural products and the level of internationalization, standardization, organization and branding, focusing on making up for shortcomings, strengths and weaknesses, and further playing the role of "leader".
The first is to actively carry out international certification and accreditation and obtain a wider range of international passes. In addition to GAP, HACCP, GMP, ISO series and other management system certifications, the International Trade Base vigorously promotes the construction of agricultural product production quality management system, focuses on benchmarking national, product, religious and other certification content, and establishes a product testing and certification system recognized by the target market. At present, the scope of enterprise certification of Guomao Base has covered traditional export markets, such as FDA certification in the United States, JAS organic certification in Japan, REACH organic certification in the European Union, OMRI organic certification in North America, BRC global food safety certification in the UK, and COR organic food certification in Canada. In the practice of sustainable agricultural development, the enterprises of the international trade base are also involved in the fields of occupational health and safety management system, and will pay attention to obtaining the health registration export qualification of emerging countries, so as to lay a good foundation for opening up diversified markets. In 2022, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs guided a number of international trade bases to obtain customs AEO certification (certified operators), and enjoy customs clearance "green channel" discounts in 48 countries and regions as soon as possible, reducing operating costs and enhancing export competitiveness.
The second is to accelerate the innovation of business models and open multi-wheel drive. In the face of the difficulties and challenges of the international trade environment, the International Trade Base actively takes different measures to broaden market channels. Shandong Province has built a new engine for the export of agricultural products of the trinity of "international trade base + industrial agglomeration area + export enterprise". International trade bases such as Huangshan Wang Guangxi and Songluo Tea Industry in Anhui Province have expanded the overseas tea market through the new format of "cross-border e-commerce + overseas warehouse" and achieved an increase in export volume. Guangdong Province with Zhanjiang Guolian as the representative of the aquatic products international trade base, Henan Province represented by Huaying agriculture as the livestock and poultry international trade base, starting from consumer demand, timely research and development of characteristic prefabricated dishes, and constantly improve processing technology, the products are not only popular in the domestic market, but also go abroad, becoming an important carrier to transmit the taste of China. In 2022, both bases will achieve an export growth rate of 30%, playing an exemplary role in promoting the foodization of agricultural products and the internationalization of food.
The third is to increase the cultivation of independent brands and enhance international visibility. Brand is an important carrier of quality, technology, reputation and culture, and is one of the core elements to enhance international competitiveness. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs actively guides the transformation of international trade base enterprises from product operation to brand management, cooperates with the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade to issue the "Export Commodity Brand Certificate" for more than 200 international trade base products, and includes the certified base brands in the multilingual "Agricultural Products Export Commodity Brand Certification Enterprises and Product Directory", forming a cluster of advantageous agricultural product export brands, and publicizing certified agricultural product enterprises and product brands through overseas representative offices, embassies in China, embassies and consulates abroad, etc. Help the high-quality characteristic agricultural products of the International Trade Base "go global". The number of overseas trademark registrations of Mengniu Dairy, Angel Yeast, Qiaqia Food, Longping Hi-Tech and other international trade base enterprises has exceeded 200.
The fourth is to strengthen the joint agricultural belt agriculture and empower industrial upgrading. International Trade Base enterprises actively play a leading role, constantly innovate the model of joint farming with agriculture, enhance radiation driving capabilities, help small farmers connect to the large market, and promote farmers' income and agricultural efficiency. Qiaqia Food will gradually optimize the initial "company + farmer" into a network order agricultural system of "company + breeding institution + promotion partner + grower", through the introduction of cooperatives, seed companies, agricultural materials, corps farms, etc., small farmers will be organized to sign contracts in groups, forming a characteristic agricultural industrial cluster and professional division of labor system of small farmers, multiple subjects and large groups, and through stable raw material recovery guarantee and professional planting guidance, it will increase the income of cooperative growers by about 1,000 yuan per mu and help 20,000 farmers achieve prosperity. Guicha Group led the establishment of the "Guicha Alliance" composed of 61 member enterprises, adopting the development model of "leading enterprises + alliance enterprises + farmers" to drive farmers to develop professional, standardized, large-scale and intensive production, and help more than 50% of the targeted poverty alleviation households in the tea industry cover the area to achieve the poverty alleviation goal. Xinjiang Guannong Fruit Mushroom actively promotes the "Internet + agriculture" production and operation mode, builds a "Little Iron Bull" digital agricultural industry revitalization service platform for Guannong, establishes a digital production demonstration base, and provides farmers with technical guidance throughout the process. Hainan Xiangtai Fishery's "company + farmer shareholding" model implements industrial capital investment in poverty alleviation, absorbs 1,518 poor households from 86 village committees in 7 townships in Chengmai County to participate, and leads poor households to get rid of poverty and become rich through the method of "fixed income dividends + labor and employment".
Promote the diversification of agricultural trade and development
Host: The scale of agricultural trade on the mainland is gradually expanding, but the problem of being large but not strong is more prominent.
Sun Dongsheng (Deputy Director, Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences): The mainland is the world's second largest agricultural product trading country, the largest agricultural product importer, and the fifth largest agricultural product exporter. To this end, it is necessary to broaden the horizon, extend the connotation, and actively promote the diversification of agricultural trade into the construction of a trading power. Diversification of agricultural trade is an important growth point for the mainland to build an agricultural power, cultivate new competitive advantages in international agricultural cooperation, and enhance the reliability and resilience of agricultural trade in the future.
Persist in opening up to the outside world without wavering, and promote the opening up of high-level agriculture to the outside world. High-level opening up is an important way to ensure the security of supply and market stability of mainland agricultural products. To build an agricultural power with Chinese characteristics and a strong agricultural trade country, we must not only follow the general law of the development of agricultural power, but also attract global resource factors with the domestic cycle, enhance the linkage effect of resources between domestic and international markets, rely on the advantages of the mainland's agricultural power and ultra-large-scale market, and take the stability and guarantee of the full supply of grain and other important agricultural products as the primary task of the high-quality development of the mainland's agricultural trade. According to the characteristics of the mainland's national conditions and agricultural resource endowments, we will actively participate in the international division of labor and cooperation, strive to achieve diversification of agricultural products import and export, multi-level trade structure, and diversified trading partners, and enhance the stability of agricultural trade and market resilience.
Cultivate world-class agricultural enterprise groups and deeply participate in international division of labor and cooperation. Benchmark against the four major international grain merchants, accelerate the cultivation of world-class agricultural enterprise groups, expand and strengthen major grain enterprises, master the grain industry chain of agricultural technology research and development, planting, grain purchase, storage and transportation, grain deep processing, product storage, transportation and sales, etc., establish their own transportation channels in seeds, fertilizers, agricultural products and other links, realize one-stop operation of collectivization, actively develop the production and export of labor-intensive agricultural products while appropriately importing land-resource-intensive agricultural products, and promote the trade of agricultural products. Diversity of partners. At the same time, we will increase support for the construction of agricultural product trade bases, encourage enterprises to refer to international standards and aim at the international market, optimize and upgrade the structure of agricultural product production and trade, improve the production, processing and service level of agricultural products, vigorously develop new industries and new formats such as agricultural digital industry and agricultural service trade, greatly improve the quality of agricultural products, enhance the added value of export agricultural products, win with high quality and competitive prices, enhance the competitiveness of agricultural products, and use this as a way to improve agricultural efficiency. A breakthrough point for increasing farmers' income and an entry point for optimizing the agricultural structure.
Promote fair and equal openness and cooperation, and promote the strategy of "going out" in agriculture. Proceeding from the characteristics of the development stage of the mainland's agricultural industry, the competitiveness status and the needs of building an agricultural power, actively promote strategic international cooperation in agriculture, strengthen cooperation with international organizations, regional organizations and relevant countries, promote the formation of a mutually beneficial, win-win, fair and equal agricultural opening pattern through medium- and long-term economic and trade agreements and arrangements, expand multilateral and bilateral cooperation mechanisms and agricultural trade facilitation channels, implement a larger scope, wider fields and deeper trade diversification, and change the relatively single source of imports. The international trade pattern is easily subject to changes in export destination policies and output. In conjunction with the "Belt and Road" initiative, expand cooperation mechanisms and agricultural trade facilitation channels, and further promote the diversification of agricultural product import and export markets. Taking agricultural "going out" as a measure to improve import regulation and control capabilities, organically combining "going out" with import diversification strategies, and promoting the production and import and export trade capabilities of "going out" enterprises in target countries (regions), so as to establish stable, diversified and reliable import channels for agricultural products.
Strengthen research on agricultural product markets at home and abroad, and improve the monitoring and early warning system for agricultural product trade. Accelerate the improvement of service capabilities for domestic and foreign agricultural product production, consumption, prices, trade and other information systems, establish domestic and foreign agricultural product market data archives by variety, and regularly publish monitoring and early warning information on domestic and foreign agricultural product production, consumption, price, quality, trade trends, etc. Major countries should be selected to track and study their agricultural policy trends and agricultural product market conditions, study and judge changes in agricultural production and trade, and put forward relevant countermeasures and suggestions in a timely manner.
Source: Economic Daily