Figure 1: China's automobile sales and growth rate from 2001 to 2022 Chart: International Electronic Business Information Source: China Association of Automobile Manufacturers
According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in 2022, China's automobile production and sales reached 27.021 million units and 26.864 million units, up 3.4% and 2.1% y/y, respectively, with production growth remaining flat and sales growth falling by 1.7 percentage points compared with the previous year. China's total automobile production and sales have ranked first in the world for 14 consecutive years.
Under the dual role of policy and market, China's new energy vehicles continued to grow explosively in 2022, with production and sales reaching 7.058 million units and 6.887 million units, respectively, up 96.9% and 93.4% y/y. The market share of new energy vehicles reached 25.6%, up from 12.1 percentage points in 2021.
China's new energy vehicles have developed rapidly in the past two years, ranking first in the world for eight consecutive years.
Figure 2: New energy vehicle sales and growth rate from 2013 to 2022 Chart: International Electronic Business Source: China Association of Automobile Manufacturers
On February 7, the relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology commented on the positive results achieved in the development of China's new energy vehicle industry in recent years, saying that China completed the 2025 development goals proposed in the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)" ahead of schedule.
The person in charge pointed out that on the whole, China has mastered key technologies such as batteries, motors, and electronic controls, formed a complete industrial system covering basic materials, parts, manufacturing equipment, etc., and has the foundation and conditions to support the comprehensive market-oriented expansion of products, but it still faces prominent problems such as the convenience of charging and swapping needs to be improved, and the development of industrial integration is not enough, while the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality strategy also puts forward higher requirements for the construction of a green and low-carbon transportation system.
China's new energy vehicle pile increment ratio is 2.7:1, and the short-term goal is to reach 1:1
Charging infrastructure overview in 2022
According to statistics from the China Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Promotion Alliance (China Charging Alliance), as of December 2022, members of the alliance have reported a total of 1.797 million public charging piles, including 761,000 DC charging piles and 1.036 million AC charging piles. From January ~ December 2022, an average of about 54,000 new public charging piles will be added every month.
According to data released by the alliance, in January ~ December 2022, the increase in charging infrastructure was 2.593 million units, of which the increase in public charging piles increased by 91.6% year-on-year, and the increase in private charging piles built with vehicles continued to rise, up 225.5% year-on-year.
Overview of the operation of public charging infrastructure
As of December 2022, member units in the alliance have reported a total of 1.797 million public charging piles, including 761,000 DC charging piles and 1.036 million AC charging piles. From January ~ December 2022, an average of about 54,000 new public charging piles will be added every month.
Figure 3: Overview of the overall data of China's automobile public charging piles as of December 2022 Chart: International Electronic Business Information data source: China Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Promotion Alliance
Overview of charging infrastructure compared to electric vehicles
In January ~ December 2022, China's charging infrastructure increased by 2.593 million units, and new energy vehicle sales were 6.887 million units, and charging infrastructure and new energy vehicles continued to grow explosively. The incremental ratio of vehicle piles is 2.7:1, and the construction of charging infrastructure can basically meet the rapid development of new energy vehicles.
Table 1: National charging pile increment and year-on-year increment from January to December 2022 Tabulation: International Electronic Business Information Source: China Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Promotion Alliance
On January 30, 2023, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China and other eight departments jointly issued the Notice on Organizing and Carrying out the Pilot Work of the Pilot Zone for the Comprehensive Electrification of Public Sector Vehicles (hereinafter referred to as the "Notice"). The Notice points out that from 2023 to 2025, the ratio of new public charging piles (standard piles) to the number of new energy vehicles in the public sector (standard vehicles) in China will strive to reach 1:1, and the proportion of charging facilities in highway service areas is expected to be no less than 10% of small parking spaces.
At the same time, the Notice also emphasizes that improving the level of vehicle electrification, promoting the application of new technological innovation, improving charging and swapping infrastructure and improving policies and management systems are four key tasks, among which, the terms for promoting the application of new technological innovation include: accelerating the application of new charging and swapping technologies such as intelligent and orderly charging, high-power charging, automatic charging, and rapid battery replacement, and accelerating the pilot application of "optical storage, charging and discharging" integration.
Multi-trend overlay The demand for automotive electronics has increased significantly
According to Deloitte's report, the average number of chips installed in new energy vehicles is about 1,459, which is gradually increasing the distance between the number of chips installed in traditional fuel vehicles. In addition, new energy vehicles with power systems as power sources have higher requirements for power management and power conversion of electronic components, which enhances the value of on-board chips. As technologies such as autonomous driving mature, the price of chips on bicycles will also be higher. Thanks to the demand for electronic components (such as inverters, powertrain domain controllers DCUs, various sensors, etc.) for new energy vehicle battery management and electric powertrains, the value of BOM (bill of materials) of automotive electronic components will be significantly improved. Deloitte predicts that by 2025, the value of electronic components for pure electric vehicles will reach US$2,875.
800V high-voltage fast charging technology has become a hot spot in the development of new energy vehicles
In 2019, Porsche Taycan launched its 800V high-voltage electrical architecture for the first time in the world, equipped with an 800V DC fast charging system and supporting 350kW high-power fast charging. Since then, Hyundai, Audi, Maserati and other OEMs have successively released models equipped with 800V fast charging technology, and Chinese local car companies such as BYD, Great Wall, GAC Aion, and Xpeng Motors have also followed suit.
Figure 4: Key technology trends for DC chargers for electric vehicles in 2022 Tabulation: International Electronic Business Source: Yole Intelligence
Although the industry has been hyping "high-voltage fast charging", but the maximum current limit of the mainstream charging gun is 500A, the charging power that can be achieved is about 200kW, and car companies generally use 400V voltage system, 250A current, to reach 100kW of charging power, according to the calculation of 50kWh of single vehicle with electricity, it takes 30 minutes to charge the battery SoC (referring to the state of charge, also known as the remaining power) from 30% to 80%, and 800V high voltage up to 300-500kW of charging power. It only takes 6-10 minutes to quickly refuel. There is an upper limit to the path of increasing power by boosting current, so most companies choose to increase charging power by increasing the voltage. For example, the Yole Intelligence report states that the main trends in DC chargers for electric vehicles are to increase the maximum charger voltage from 500V to 1,000V to reduce the charging pressure of 800V battery cars, and to increase the power to more than 200kW to achieve faster charging speeds.
According to the report, the EV DC charger system market was valued at approximately $5.3 billion in 2021 and is expected to reach $17.9 billion by 2028, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.1% from 2021 to 2028. According to the report, the market for silicon and SiC power devices for EV DC chargers will reach $610.8 million by 2028.
With the fast-growing electric vehicle (EV) market and the growing demand for fast vehicle charging, manufacturers have joined the ranks of EV DC charging solutions, such as industry-leading charger manufacturers, including ABB, Tritium, Tesla, BTC Power, Alpitronic, Kempower, Wanbang Star Charging and Delta; China's major charger module suppliers, including Youyou Green Energy, Shenghong Electric, Tonghe Technology, Smartco and Xiankong Jielian; Suppliers of silicon or SiC device products, including Infineon, STMicroelectronics, ROHM, Wolfspeed and SEMIKRON Danfoss.
In addition, in recent years, with the improvement of vehicle lightweight, high-power, and high-frequency requirements, on-board power supplies have gradually developed from discrete devices to two-in-one, three-in-one and five-in-one integrated products integrated with the driver. According to the analysis of Northeast Securities, the value of integrated products has decreased compared with the single on-board power cycle, but after the electrical architecture of the model is upgraded to 800V high voltage, the bicycle value of integrated products has increased compared with discrete devices and low-voltage integrated products, according to the previous assumption that the penetration rate of 800V models in 2023-2025 is 7.34%, 13.95% and 16.22%, respectively, and the market space of vehicle power supply is expected to be 26.3 billion yuan, 33.7 billion yuan and 46 billion yuan in 2023-2025.
Editor-in-charge: Clover.li