A few days ago, the topic of "#How hard do kindergartens fight for admissions#" was on Weibo.
This is because there have been many reports of "difficult enrollment in kindergartens" recently. Among them, some practitioners mentioned:
"Two years ago, the children ran after us, and now, we run after the children."
As for why this is so, in fact, just look at the fertility data in recent years.
☉ Source: National Institute of Statistics
It was in 2020 that the birth rate of Chinese fell below 10 per thousand. Three years after that, children born in 2020 were enrolled in nurseries, and the decrease in the number of births three years ago was reflected in the decrease in the number of children enrolled in nurseries three years later.
Looking at the fertility rate, it is still declining year by year, which shows that the days of kindergarten in the next few years will be more difficult, and it is more necessary to rob children.
In the future, all sectors of society will feel the impact of the reduction of children, and kindergartens will only feel it relatively early.
In March last year, "China Newsweek" published an article entitled "Fertility rate declined, obstetrics "rolled up"", mentioning that the obstetrics and gynecology department of the Dongba Campus of Beijing First Hospital of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine was once brilliant, and the annual delivery volume once reached three or five thousand, this data fell to about 1800 during 2014~2016, but in 2021 it dipped to less than 150, shrinking by ninety percent.
This year, China Newsweek published an article titled "The first round of closures has come, kindergartens are "difficult to find", which shows that the crisis of reducing newborns, the earliest impact was obstetrics, and now it has spread to kindergartens.
In twenty or so years, will such a shock be the turn of the university?
Taiwan across the strait has already given the answer, according to Taiwan's Lianhe Pao, the number of students enrolled on the island in the 2022 academic year has dropped by 11,000 compared with previous years, but the school did not adjust the allocation of enrollment places in time, resulting in a vacancy of more than 14,000, and the acceptance rate was as high as 98.94%, both reaching a record high.
In other words, Taiwan was a school-age person who could go to college last year, and the university was still dissatisfied.
What if we count thirty years from now?
We previously wrote "Do we want to bring in low-end foreign labor on a large scale?" There is a possibility, or a more optimistic possibility. From "Do we want to introduce low-end foreign labor on a large scale?" It can be seen that being misunderstood is the fate of the expressor.
In fact, the situation is already clear: the fertility rate is going all the way down, which is consistent with our experience in daily life - if you look at the comment area of our previous article, you can see that many people have expressed a strong desire not to have children.
Since no one wants to give birth, it is foreseeable that the number of young people will decline sharply in thirty years.
At that time, today's "post-80s", especially those who have not given birth, will indeed face the problem of old-age care.
Here I still advise you, or have a baby, for yourself.
Of course, some people are really not suitable for having children, and after giving birth to children, they can raise children into enemies in a few decades, so let me say it in vain.
I just advise everyone to think more about themselves, don't involve this kind of problem with the state, the state has not shown a particularly strong willingness to promote fertility in this matter, and the current wording is still only to allow three children.
On the contrary, local governments are more active, after all, the population is really expensive in the future.
But even local governments have limited money to encourage childbirth, such as Shenzhen can receive a cumulative subsidy of 37,500 yuan for giving birth to three children, a one-time subsidy of 5,000 yuan for families with two children in Hangzhou, and a one-time subsidy of 20,000 yuan for families with three children.
These are developed areas, and the subsidies given are far from enough to cover the cost of childcare. Not to mention less developed areas, which give less money.
Therefore, the matter of childbirth still has to be considered by yourself. As for how you think about it, it really depends on personal cognition.
This article is reprinted from Extraordinary Churros