Recently, AppMagic, an overseas mobile market information tool, released the 2022 mobile game industry review report and conducted data analysis for different categories of products. AppMagic's main business is to provide detailed statistics on the AppStore and Google Play leaderboards, the revenue and downloads of the app in various markets, and a full suite of tools for mobile market research.
Key takeaways from the present report
While the global mobile gaming market declined last year, and it seems likely that this decline will continue, we want to highlight some types with decent risk/reward ratios that could present significant opportunities in 2023:
Placement Tycoon Games: Among the top 100 casual games released in 2022, this genre has the most games. The risk/reward ratio is quite attractive; While the rewards may not be the greatest, well-crafted games have decent success rates in this segment.
Match-3: This is an extremely young segment and continues to evolve with each new successful creation. In 2020, only 27 match-3 games were released, 69 in 2021, and 360 in 2022. Clearly, more and more publishers are grabbing market share by constantly experimenting with new methods or polishing existing ones.
Match-2 games: Similar to match-3, this segment is still growing, so new games have a greater chance of grabbing the pie. Eventually, this market can replicate the success of match-3 games and become a high-turnover segment, which can then be sustained through normal operations.
Despite the launch of multiple highly successful core games in 2022, the outlook for the segment remains quite challenging. The recession is expected to last for several years, and Google's "privacy sandbox" is expected to launch in the third quarter of 2023.
As competition intensifies, the hyper-casual gaming market will continue to evolve, incorporating more "casual" gameplay and monetization strategies.
AppMagic 2022 mobile game industry review content:
introduction
Let's start with the results: 2022 is definitely a challenging year for the mobile gaming market. If you haven't paid much attention to market changes last year, you'll know the bad news from us: For the first time ever, consumer spend has declined, down nearly 5%. However, downloads continue to surge, largely due to developing countries.
However, instead of staring at the challenges facing the mobile gaming industry, let's take a look at the genres that are swimming against the tide because of the potential opportunities in 2023. By focusing on these highlight categories, we can maintain an optimistic attitude on the one hand, and on the other hand, we can identify the future growth points of the mobile game market.
In partnership with Niko Partners, a leader in market intelligence in Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, we have completed this comprehensive report on the mobile gaming industry in 2022, which consists of two sections.
This report focuses on the performance of the mobile gaming market in first-tier countries in Europe and the United States, such as Australia, Canada, France, Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States. In addition, Niko Partners will supplement its analysis of the Asian mobile gaming market. Stay tuned for the second section of this report, which focuses on the Asian market and will be published on the Niko Partners website.
Casual games
2022 saw the launch of a large number of popular casual games. BTS Island is not only the best-selling match-3 game released last year, but also one of the most successful match-3 games of the past two years, which is an extraordinary achievement considering that the match-3 category is so competitive. Similarly, Mergeland-Alice's Adventure is one of the best-selling match-3 games released over the past two years. These two are just two of the many great casual games released last year, and we highly recommend taking a good look at the top 100 casual games in 2022.
At the same time, we also focus on the genres that have changed the most in 2022 and find out the reasons behind them.
We will analyze each game genre in detail by comparing the total number of games released in 2022 with the number of successful games (with monthly turnover of more than $50,000). In this way, we can also compare the success rates of different game types.
Match-2 games
100 games were released in 2022
6 games were successful
6% success rate
The mainstream product of casual games in 2022 is the converged genre, which not only has a staggering 102% year-over-year growth rate, but also has many successfully released products. This is undoubtedly a great achievement in 2022, when the environment is down!
Among the top 100 casual games released in 2022, 6 are match-2 fusions. All of these games are embedded with an "order system," which we explored in detail in last year's "Converged Type Segments" report and won't repeat it here.
Our conclusion was: "...all successful derivatives of Merge Mansion and Love & Pies will use L&P's order system because it is beneficial and harmless." ”
We turned out to be right: the 10 highly successful match-2 games released in 2022 all use the order system that is widely circulated by L&P.
It is worth mentioning that "Gossip Harbor" completely follows the game cycle of L&P, and finally successfully surpasses L&P to become the second most popular match-2 game in 2022. This shows that the market is still not monopolized, so new products can still come in.
The 6 games we defined as "successful (over $50,000 per month)" actually had more than $100,000 per month, and Gossip Harbor had a monthly turnover of over $2 million. However, in addition to these 6 games, the turnover of other match-2 games has dropped significantly. The 7th largest match-2 game released in 2022, with a monthly turnover of just over $20,000. This seems like a perfect risk/reward ratio, with high returns and stakes comparable or even lower than other game genres.
2022 is a very important year for Asian fusion games, especially match-2 integration. Between 2021 and 2022, the category doubled its total turnover in the Asia, Middle East and North Africa region. Merge Mansion and Merge County are two of the best games in East Asia, blending puzzle solving, growth, design, and more to create a fusion gameplay that players can't stop. Gossip Harbor, a match-and-match subgenre, also took East Asia by storm at the end of the year. It's worth noting that fusion games that have been successful in Asia to date usually have a core genre. Despite this, the Asian market still faces many challenges, mainly due to the high cost of user acquisition, and the need to create more complex game mechanics to attract Asian players. - Niko Partners
Match 3: Picture Card Game
280 games were released in 2022
6 games were successful
2.2% success rate
The next game genre to explore is match-3. Since its launch in 2021, the category experienced a decline in turnover for the first time in the first half of 2022. Despite this, the category's turnover subsequently surged by another 85% (though downloads fell by 12%).
The new product we're going to discuss is Boombox Games' Triple Match 3D in 2022, which has swept the first-tier markets in Europe and the United States, far outperforming other competitors:
People may ask, "What's the secret to their success?" In 2021, Zen Match became a hit in the market due to the addition of decorative elements to the original gameplay. Last year, Triple Match 3D added an order system (remember the match-2 game discussed above?). and a fairly compact countdown design, which completely changes the core gameplay of the game; It adds a bit of a challenge to the relatively casual and relaxed gameplay, especially later in the game. As a result, users will use items more often, or replenish energy/health to continue playing, which costs money or watch bonus ads.
Although Triple Match 3D dominates the market in terms of streaming, the download volume of this category is evenly distributed among several masterpieces, which is different from the average pay-per-download data:
The game currently pays an incredible $14.31 per download, so they might as well compete for traffic with games like Merge Mansion or Fishdom. But the question is, in the long run, can they maintain this user stickiness through normal operations, so as to further expand the scale of users?
The 2022 match-3 genre had a mixed performance in Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, with most traditional match-3 games seeing a decline in turnover and downloads. However, Candy Crush Saga continues to buck the trend, seeing growth in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East and North Africa. In addition, this year has seen some of the fastest growing match-3 games, such as Royal Match; Although they rely on the existing elimination mechanism and metadata, they can achieve category advancement and become popular products in the market. As a subgenre of match-3 games, match-3 board games performed particularly well in 2022, with turnover more than tripling in 2021. The best performers were Zen Match and Triple Match 3D. Triple Match 3D is a new product that will be launched in 2022 and has been a huge success due to its level timer feature. While match-3 games are only a small part of the match-3 genre, it's definitely a subgenre to watch this year. - Niko Partners
Placement tycoon game
241 games were released in 2022
10 games were successful
4.2% success rate
The Idle Tycoon game was another genre we analyzed last year, but it may not be the most obvious opportunity option. On the one hand, unlike the previously introduced types, the placement tycoon market has contracted throughout the year, although it still grew by 30% year-on-year; But on the other hand, in the list of the top 100 casual games released in 2022, the games that place the tycoon category the most:
Recently, the market for placement tycoons has shifted in focus: the turnover of older games such as "Idle Miner", "Idle Lumber Empire", "Egg Inc" has declined:
Meanwhile, new games like Idle Office Tycoon or Truck Stop show a strong upward trend. Although the category as a whole did not perform well in 2022, it still occupied the most games in the top 100 casual games list.
With its above-average success rate and relatively low production costs, the Placement Tycoon gaming market offers great potential for seasoned gaming teams to thrive. In addition, the flow distribution of this category is relatively more uniform, which also indicates that the risk/reward ratio is quite good.
Farm games
55 games were released in 2022
1 game was successful
1.8% success rate
The farm game genre became a hot topic of discussion in 2021, not only with a 50% annual turnover increase, but also with a number of extremely successful new products launched that year, so some even called it a "farm revival". In contrast, 2022 looks tepid: there aren't many boutiques coming out, and players' enthusiasm for farm games seems to be fading.
Despite the decline in popularity, the farm games market still achieved a respectable growth rate of 20%, which also shows that this mature segment is worth digging into. It's worth noting that the development cycle for farm games can be quite long, so it's possible that we'll see some blockbusters come out in the coming years.
Only 1 farm game released in 2022 has been successful, and the risk/reward ratio does not seem to be very attractive, after all, the production cost and production time of farm games far exceed the match-2 or placement tycoon categories.
Survival Arena
134 games were released in 2022
4 games were successful
3% success rate
One game that has to be mentioned in 2022 is Survivor.io. With this game, the Hyperion Network single-handedly took the genre to the next level and led to a large number of games trying to imitate their patterns. In fact, Haibi Network has had successful works that can change the industry before. In 2019, they released Archero, a hybrid casual/mid-core game, and quickly entered the top 20 list that year, along with blockbusters such as Call of Duty, State of Survival, and Project Makeover. As a pioneer in the game industry, Haibi Network became famous much earlier than them.
With the release of "Survivor.io", Chinese game developer Haibi Network has another hot boutique in 2022. The company first rose to fame in 2019 with Archero, and this latest title is driving the growth of the entire survival competition subgenre. While retaining the simple casual gameplay of the previous game, Haibi Network integrates light roguelike and action elements, which not only makes the game suitable for all types of players, but also allows players to participate in a more defined core experience. Daily Missions, Game Rewards, and Survival Passes are among the main ways Haibei Network uses to ensure player retention. The 14 markets we analyzed accounted for more than 70% of the game's cumulative turnover. - Niko Partners
Core game
Everyone expects a lot of change in the core gaming market, after all, this segment covers some of the most popular game genres, such as RPGs, strategy games, or shooters. However, 2022 has been a rather lackluster year for the core gaming market. Diablo ®: Immortal ™ is indeed a big deal, Marvel Snap opens up the world of card games for more players, and Apex Legends seems to be another successful triple-A mobile game.
Despite these masterpieces, the core market has been challenged in the past year, with RPG, strategy, adventure and other types of turnover declining. There are many reasons for this, the main ones are: the ability of publishers to target audiences after the introduction of new privacy restrictions, and the negative impact of the global recession on consumer spending; Increased regulatory resistance in markets such as Chinese mainland is also one of the main reasons for the sluggish Asian market.
Although core games are also trending in Asian markets in 2022, Niko Partners has some ideas worth sharing:
It's no secret that MMOs and RPGs dominate the mobile gaming market in South Korea, and 2022 is no exception. During 2022, RPG games accounted for 75% of the core game turnover in Korea, and the total expenditure of RPG games increased by 10% year-on-year.
NCSoft's Lineage M and Lineage W performed particularly well, with a total of 3 Lineage IP games in the top 5 of the 2022 ranking. With Nexon's new titles Dungeon & Fighter M and Hit 2, the action RPG subgenre is doing well. Although non-locally developed RPG games such as Genshin and Guardians of Cloudia also entered the top 10 of the 2022 list, the list is still dominated by local developers. - Niko Partners
Shooting game
678 games were released in 2022
4 games were successful
0.6% success rate
The genre that hit hardest last year was undoubtedly shooters, which were a storm: Supercell removed Brawl Stars' loot boxes, and Garena Free Fire was banned in India after being sued by Krafton. And as the decline in shooter consumption becomes a global trend, game publishers are looking for ways to avoid the 30% app store cut by accessing third-party payments.
Even the successful release of Apex Legend could not stop the decline of the market. The shooter market is still challenging this year. With EA canceling Apex (which struggles to sustain and replicate earlier successes) and Battlefield, the chances of a market rebound are slim.
Other than that, there's not much to add. Each genre dropped by around 10%, and shooters were especially unfortunate. Of course, last year also saw some quite successful products, such as Goddess of Victory, Vikingard, Bloodline, etc., but none of them were strong enough to stop the decline in the corresponding market.
Here's what Niko Partners has to say about India's regulatory crisis:
Over the past few years, the Indian government has stepped up its efforts in video game regulation, banning two major chicken-eating games in 2022: Battlegrounds Mobile India and Free Fire. Our research shows that before the ban, these two games accounted for 95% of total spending on mobile games, and chicken eating was the number one game genre in 2021, accounting for more than 1/3 of total mobile game spending. Although these two high-profile games have been hit hard, the chicken-eating genre still dominates in 2022, mainly because Free Fire MAX has not been removed from the Android App Store. The Indian mobile gaming market will see the full impact of these bans in 2023, and we still don't see other game genres reaching the same level of popularity as chicken-eating games. However, India is the number one game download market and the opportunity for new games is huge, and we believe games like Warzone Mobile and Valorant Mobile have the potential to fill that gap. Based on our forecast for the next 5 years, India will continue to be the fastest growing mobile gaming market in Asia. - Niko Partners
Hyper-casual game
18,395 games were released in 2022
157 successful products (over 500,000 downloads per month)
0.85% success rate
Last year, we paid an unprecedented close eye to the hyper-casual gaming market, and finally compiled a 4th quarter report to analyze the state of the market. Despite the challenges and volatility, the hyper-casual market is on a growing trend, not only with increased downloads, mainly driven by growth in developing countries, but also with more games and publishers flooding the track.
Many publishers have experimented with multi-element fusion, incorporating core monetization elements into their hyper-casual games, which has also led to a new genre called "mixed casual."
However, the future of the genre is uncertain: the increasingly fierce competition has led to higher standards in game development, which in turn conflicts with the "fast-paced" philosophy of hyper-casual games. Moreover, Google's intrusive advertising policies pose a real existential threat to the monetization tactics of many publishers. In addition, as eCPM declines, it becomes more difficult to maintain positive returns. Of course, while these changes are deeply rooted and daunting, publishers can adapt and evolve with them, launching innovative products that keep pace with market changes.