The competition in the new energy vehicle track is spreading, and the industrial chain of automakers is "in crisis" in the field of power batteries.
Recently, relevant media released reports that CATL is preparing to implement the "lithium mine rebate" plan to some car companies, and in the next three years, some of the power batteries sold by CATL will be settled at a price of 200,000 yuan / ton at the end of the year.
According to the latest data, as of February 21, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 417,500 yuan / ton, although the price of the highest 567,000 yuan / ton in 2022 has fallen sharply, but it is still far from the price of 200,000 yuan / ton in the "lithium mine rebate" plan, it is clear that the Ningde era is setting off a price war in the field of lithium batteries.
In fact, only in the early and middle stages of industry development, and the head enterprises are evenly matched, will there be a price war; But now, the development of the power battery market has stabilized, and the Ningde era, which is far ahead, has taken the initiative to provoke a price war, for what?
Provoking a price war, "King Ning" changed his face
"The world's car company Kuning Wang has been for a long time!" A month ago, economist Ren Zeping was still grieving about car companies.
Unexpectedly, less than a month later, "Ningwang" suddenly launched the "lithium mine rebate" plan to "pay benefits" to a number of car companies.
It is undeniable that the sudden provocation of a price war by the Ningde era this time is indeed very surprising, after all, "Ningwang" has now occupied the position of "half of the sky" in the power battery market, and there is no need to fight a price war.
According to statistics, in 2022, the domestic installed capacity of CATL is as high as 142GWh, and the market share has reached 48.2%, in other words, for every 2 new energy vehicles sold last year, 1 is equipped with CATL power batteries, it is precisely because of this, whether in the industry or in the face of downstream vehicle manufacturers, CATL has a very high right to speak.
Then look at the net profit and gross margin, two data much higher than peers can also show the status of "Ningwang".
According to the financial report, as of the third quarter of last year, CATL's net profit was 17.59 billion yuan, and the gross profit margin was 18.95%; As a peer of the "100 billion giant" EVE Lithium Energy, the net profit in the same period was only 2.666 billion, less than 1/5 of CATL, and the gross profit margin was 15.86%, which was 3 percentage points lower than the gross profit margin of CATL, and the gap between the two was far away.
In the past, in the face of car company cooperation, the strong "Ningwang" often put forward many requirements, such as the hegemonic "margin strategy" - when car companies sign an agreement with CATL, they need to make expectations for battery demand in the next 5 or even 10 years, and pay a deposit to CATL in advance.
However, with the launch of the "lithium mine rebate" program, the once strong Ningde era has undergone a great change in attitude.
In the "lithium mine rebate", there are two points worth paying attention to:
First, the price aspect. In the "lithium mine rebate" plan, it is mentioned that part of the power batteries sold by CATL will be settled at a price of 200,000 yuan / ton at the end of the year.
As of February 21, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 417,500 yuan / ton, in other words, the settlement price of CATL was 50% lower than the current price, such a large price gap, which is likely to be a money-losing transaction.
Second, the requirements for planning cooperation. Car companies that have signed the "lithium mine rebate" plan need to commit about 80% of the battery purchase volume to CATL, and the intention of this is obvious - in order to "lock" the cooperative car companies.
From the once "domineering" to now in order to bind car companies to do "losing money", it is not difficult to see that the attitude of the Ningde era is changing.
What is King Ning worried about?
On the surface, CATL launched the "lithium mine rebate" to tie up more car companies.
In the past few years, due to the strong attitude of the CATL era, many car companies have "complained".
For example, Zeng Qinghong, chairman of GAC Group, once blasted CATL - "The cost of power batteries has accounted for 40%, 50%, 60% of our cars, and it is still increasing, so aren't we working for CATL now?" ”
In this context, many new energy vehicle companies choose to "rise up" - either build their own power battery factories and imitate BYD's entire industry chain model; Or look for new power battery manufacturers to reduce the voice of the Ningde era.
For example, Xpeng Motors introduced AVIC Lithium Battery as a power battery supplier at the end of 2021, and later established its own power battery company with a registered capital of 5 billion yuan, and began to move towards the road of self-developed batteries; The GAC Group mentioned above, its new energy brand GAC AION, selected AVIC Lithium Battery as the main battery supplier in 2020.
With the gradual growth of new energy vehicle companies, more and more car companies choose to "escape" from the Ningde era, and its launch of "lithium mine rebate" is to tie up car companies that want to "escape", after all, the car companies that signed the "lithium mine rebate" plan need to commit about 80% of the battery purchase volume to the Ningde era in the next 3 years, which means that car companies will be deeply tied to the Ningde era.
At a deeper level, CATL's launch of "lithium mine rebate" may be due to the possibility of overcapacity.
According to media statistics, since 2022, CATL and its strategic allies have announced at least 10 major investment projects with a total investment of nearly 160 billion yuan, and by 2025, CATL plans to expand production capacity to 839GWh.
In addition, from the financial report data, the fixed assets and construction assets under construction of CATL are rising rapidly in recent years.
As of the third quarter of last year, the fixed assets of CATL were 74.31 billion yuan, and the projects under construction were 38.87 billion yuan, a total of more than 110 billion yuan; in 2018, the fixed assets of the CATL era were 11.57 billion yuan, and the projects under construction were 1.624 billion yuan, a total of only 13.194 billion yuan, which is converted to 8 times the "fixed assets + projects under construction" of the CATL era in less than 4 years.
Whether from the perspective of the projects invested last year, or from the perspective of fixed assets and construction assets that have increased by 8 times, "Ningwang" is accelerating its production capacity, but as the high-speed growth period of the new energy vehicle market comes to an end, coupled with other power battery manufacturers are also expanding production capacity, "Ningwang" will likely have overcapacity in the future.
From the perspective of production capacity, the launch of the "lithium mine rebate" plan by CATL is actually a helpless choice.
Bet again, what are the odds of "King Ning"?
"Strong gambling", these are the four big characters hanging in Zeng Yuqun's office.
Looking back at the development history of the Ningde era, it can have the current trillion market value, which is inseparable from several key "big bets".
Now, CATL has launched the "lithium mine rebate" plan, which is also a "big bet" - betting that the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate will continue to decline sharply in the future, and betting that its own industrial layout can cope with the significant reduction in costs.
From now on, in the context of the expansion of first- and second-tier battery manufacturers, the entire power battery industry is likely to have overcapacity in the future, which will further promote the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate, but we do not know whether it will fall below 200,000 in the future; However, in terms of industrial layout, CATL still has the "confidence" to win this price war.
According to media statistics, in recent years, CATL has intensively deployed many lithium resource projects, such as the lithium mica project invested in Yichun City, Jiangxi Province, which is expected to be put into operation in 2023; Last month, CATL also photographed the Sichuan spodumene project.
In addition, it is necessary to mention a series of actions in the face of Snowway Mining last year. At that time, CATL, as the restructuring investor of Sinoway Mining, threw out a draft reorganization plan of more than 6.4 billion yuan, and after becoming the first candidate for restructuring investors of Sinoway, CATL will likely auction 54.2857% of the equity of Sinoway Mining and become the actual controller of Sinoway.
From the perspective of industrial layout, CATL controls a number of lithium mines, and this will undoubtedly significantly reduce costs, coupled with its own large scale effect, can have higher gross profit margins than other power battery manufacturers, CATL's "confidence" is sufficient.
However, from the stock price point of view, the market and investors still have concerns about "Ningwang". On February 17, on the day of the "lithium mine rebate" plan, the stock price of CATL plummeted by 5.19%; As of the close of February 24, the stock price of CATL closed at 405.4 yuan / share, which has fallen by more than 40% compared with the highest point of 691.35 yuan / share in 2021, and the market value has evaporated by about 680 billion.
At present, the competition in the new energy track is becoming more and more intense, and as "Ningwang" takes the initiative to provoke a price war, the power battery field may be "shuffled" again.