Recently, the cryptocurrency market has gained good upward momentum, driven by the rise of Bitcoin:
The price of bitcoin rose as high as $21,664, up 28.68% from the lowest price of $15,450 in this bear market, and also hit a new high since last September.
At the same time, Ethereum broke through the highest price of $1,640, the highest price since November 6 of last year.
Driven by the rise in bitcoin, the cryptocurrency market has generally seen a rise of varying magnitude, getting rid of the adverse effects caused by the previous low price.
Investor panic has also improved significantly, with the Panic & Greed Index at 51 today (yesterday's 45), down from yesterday, and the rating remains neutral.
As of writing, the price of Bitcoin is $21,079 and the price of Ethereum is $1,563.
The contract market exploded about $785.8 billion in the past 24 hours, of which Ethereum exploded about $27.6841 million and Bitcoin exploded about $20.5653 million.
However, at present, there is great controversy in the market for the subsequent market development:
Some analysts believe that this round of growth can push the price of bitcoin above $30,000, but then it will usher in a big fall, and may even hit the bottom again; Some analysts believe that the price of bitcoin has now reached the bottom, its upward trend has been established, and the cryptocurrency market has begun to gradually establish a bull cycle.
First, Bitcoin fell again and bottomed out after breaking through $30,000.
According to Barron's, with Bitcoin having risen for 14 consecutive trading days, the longest since March 2017, the market seems to have completely eliminated the impact of the FTX bankruptcy two months ago. On the other hand, the recent rally has also put significant pressure on short traders, and last week's surge in spot prices has triggered a flattening of bears in the bitcoin market, leading to the liquidation of hundreds of millions of dollars of short positions.
In addition, the report quoted Bitfinex analysts as commenting that while continuing to rise, insufficient trading depth may trigger a market correction.
Crypto trading firm QCP Capital said in regular market reports that bitcoin could rise another 50% before seeing a massive sell-off to complete its bear market. We stand by our view that the rally since the November 2022 low is just a correction of the fourth wave and we have a final fifth wave sell-off. According to the report, the Elliott Wave theory states that the Fibonacci retracement levels of 20%, 38.2% and 50% are particularly important in wave 4. Since Bitcoin has corrected nearly 20% from its recent macro lows, the two remaining price targets are now in play: $27,100 and $31,850.
Second, Bitcoin has bottomed out and the upward trend of the price has been established.
On-chain research shows that the Bitcoin market has bottomed out. However, macro factors that may not have existed in previous cycles are still at play and may influence the current cycle.
The Bitcoin Supply P&L shows the circulating supply that is in a state of profit or loss based on the token price being above or below the current price at the time of the last move.
The bottom of the market cycle coincides with the intersection of the profit supply (SP) and supply loss (SL) lines, most recently around the fourth quarter of 2022.
At the moment, the SP band has risen sharply, diverging from the SL band, suggesting that if the pattern remains unchanged, the price could see a macro upside.
Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital, a too-asset management firm, said on Tuesday that the price of bitcoin may be near the bottom, so now may be the time to invest in bitcoin. Long-term crypto investors need to maintain a three- to five-year outlook and not stay on daily performance.
Regardless of ups and downs, the market will always fluctuate, and the important thing is that the adoption rate of cryptocurrencies continues to increase in the face of a downturn, which is the biggest strength of cryptocurrencies:
According to a Crypto.com research report, the number of ETH holders increased by 263% between January 2022 and December 2022.
By the end of December, the number of ETH investors surged to 87 million from 27 million in January.
In contrast, BTC owners grew by just 20%, from 183 million in January to 219 million in December. Despite the significant drop in cryptocurrency prices in 2022, cryptocurrency adoption continues to increase. The total number of cryptocurrency investors jumped from 306 million in January to 425 million in December, an increase of 39%.
Global cryptocurrency holders grew by 39% in 2022 compared to 2021. The total number of cryptocurrency holders increased from 306 million at the end of 2021 to 425 million at the end of 2022. This is a positive development for the industry, as 2022 is generally a bear market. The number of Bitcoin (BTC) holders increased by 20% from 183 million in January to 219 million in December. In addition, BTC is the asset with the most holders, accounting for 52% of cryptocurrency holders worldwide.