Text/Dingfengboli
The situation is changing significantly!
Russia has ridden the tiger, Ukraine is gambling its entire fate, and the two sides are in fierce mode.
And under the constant arch fire of the United States and Europe, the escalation of the conflict is inevitable!
First, the Russian army recaptured important strongholds and realized a three-sided encirclement of Bakhmut, and Putin was exposed to vowing to take Donbass before March!
Wagner release: Picture of taking down the settlement of Krisivka
On January 19, local time, the Russian army issued another good news. The official Wagner channel announced the occupation of the village of Krishivka, which is still being cleared on and around the city.
Even more noteworthy is the official announcement by Wagnerian leader Prigozin that he has captured Krishivka in the Abahmut region.
Prigozhin put it this way: "We can safely say that the settlement of Krishivka is one of the important outskirts of Artemsk, which is completely controlled by Wagner forces. Krishivka was liberated! Heavy fighting is still going on around it. The enemy holds every meter tightly.
Contrary to various opinions that Ukrainian troops are withdrawing from Artemsk, this is not so. The Ukrainian army is still fighting together there. We have a lot to learn from them. But in any case, Wagner's forces are advancing meter by meter. Artemsk will be captured. ”
Apparently, Prigozhin meant something.
The implication is nothing more than that the statement by the American and European media that Ukraine is abandoning Bakhmut is not correct, and the fighting on the front line is still fierce.
In view of Prigozhin's usual prudent style of rarely exaggerating propaganda, and combined with the news that Krishivka has been captured by the Russian army two days ago, there is no doubt that Prigozhin is a more pragmatic and tough hawk.
Therefore, there is reason to believe that Wagner has taken Krishivka and is full of confidence and will to fight.
The biggest strategic significance of Krisivka's control by Russia is that it can help the Russian army achieve a three-sided encirclement of Bakhmut.
At the same time, according to foreign media reports, recently, Ukrainian intelligence said that Russian President Vladimov Putin has given Gerasimov orders to take Donbass by March!
Former British Prime Minister Johnson predicted that the Ukrainian army will definitely be able to recover Donbass and Crimea, and Russia will still be alive.
Of course, compared to the predictions of former British Prime Minister Johnson, it is clear that Putin's directive for full control of Donbass is more deterrent!
What's more, Russia also came up with a real deterrent: according to a number of media reports, Russia transported 1,500 kg heavy thermobaric bombs to the Donbas battlefield, preparing to inflict heavy damage on the Ukrainian army in Donbass. Many military experts even call it a last resort before nuclear weapons are used. It can be seen that the power is quite amazing.
You know, in the past in Mariupol and other battles, although Russia used thermobaric bombs, the level was not 1500 kg, but 500 kg. Therefore, it is enough to show that the Russian army is very determined to capture Donbass this time.
At present, the reason for the concealment may be that it is waiting for the situation in Bakhmut to be clearer, and the attitude of NATO and the EU will be clearer, resulting in Russia supporting the Russian army to fight more resolutely.
Second, the game between Russia and the United States has intensified, NATO has increased military aid, and Crimea may become the next sea of war
With the Russian army taking Soredar, the Bakhmut Ukrainian army is in danger, and Russia's big offensive is coming, and at the same time, NATO countries are also beginning to hurriedly cooperate and discuss major matters.
So far, Poland has announced the largest military aid in history. In addition, the defense ministers of Poland, Great Britain and the Baltic Sea held high-level meetings to coordinate the determination of the military aid package
The mountain rain is coming! With Ukraine about to acquire a large number of ammunition and offensive weapons, Russia is already riding a tiger.
Obviously, the attitude of NATO and the EU is already clear. That is, to fight Russia to the end by prompting Ukraine to fight to the end, the best result is to defeat the Russian army head-on, the general result is continuous consumption, as for the defeat of Ukraine, then NATO and the EU also have a response.
However, it is clearly more critical to the attitude of Germany and the United States. Because Germany is the bellwether of the European Union, the United States is the absolute core of NATO.
At present, Scholz's statement is still full of mystery, mainly for the actual action of the United States. He said: Germany is at the forefront of providing support to Ukraine, and Germany will continue to provide assistance. However, Berlin has no intention of acting alone, and all decisions will be made in coordination with allies, especially with the United States, since Washington plays an important role in this issue and must defend Ukraine's sovereignty and independence.
In this regard, Reuters quoted US officials as saying that Pentagon head Lloyd Austin will try to pressure Germany's new defense minister, Boris Pistorius, on Thursday, which has prompted Germany to authorize the transfer of German Panther tanks to Ukraine.
Obviously, there are also obvious differences and games between the United States and the European Union.
Of course, the more crucial news is that the New York Times said that the United States is ready to help Ukraine attack Crimea
Washington refused to supply Kiev with the weapons it needed to attack the Crimean peninsula from the very beginning of the war. But now, Washington believes that posing a threat to Crimea could significantly strengthen Kiev's negotiating position.
Crimea
According to the newspaper's sources, the position of the United States has begun to change amid reduced fears of Russian retaliation against the use of tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine. In addition, it was stated that at the beginning of the war, the United States was cautious about the transfer of MANPADS and man-portable air defense systems to Ukraine. And now artillery, MLRS, armored vehicles and stationary air defense systems are quietly being transferred.
In fact, in recent days, videos have confirmed the massive transfer of armored vehicles and military vehicles of the US military from the US mainland to Europe.
However, tanks and armored vehicles are obviously not qualified to be at ease. After all, Russia is a military-industrial event, and its T90 tank has been proven on the battlefield. What really alarms Russia is the supply of long-range munitions to Hymas, which will significantly increase tensions.
In this regard, Alexei Leonkov, a well-known Russian military expert, said that the possible supply of new long-range ammunition by the United States to the Ukrainian army will threaten not only Crimea, but all front-line areas of Russia, but Russian air defense systems are capable of shooting them down.
Yuri Gemper, chairman of the People's Foreign and Ethnic Relations Committee of the Crimean Parliament, noted that attempts by Ukrainian forces to strike Crimea with the help of the United States will receive a fatal response. "I am confident that any attempt will receive a fatal blowback and the Russians will support this decision," he said. Russia pursues a policy of balancing reason, sometimes with too much restraint, which some may consider weak, but it is not. ”
And judging by the situation and development of the human battlefield, if the Ukrainian army can capture Crimea, then it is infinitely close to victory. Perhaps in the opinion of the Zelensky authorities, even if Ukraine loses a lot, as long as Crimea is seized, everything is worth it.
But how exactly will Russia respond? The United States says it cannot be predicted. The lessons of the bombing of the Crimean bridge are vivid, but Ukraine still has the courage to attack the Russian Engels airport, which shows that the Ukrainian army is quite courageous.
Third, the preview of the decisive battle between Russia and Ukraine: At present, who has the upper hand in Russia and Ukraine?
At present, the general view is that Russia and Ukraine have no room for substantive negotiations. Turkey, Russia, Ukraine, as well as the United States and Europe have all sent this signal. In other words, the escalation of the war has become tacit agreement between all parties. The winner will take the initiative in the subsequent negotiations.
At this sensitive time, three major news are quite interesting.
News 1: McGregor, former adviser to the Secretary of Defense of former US President Trump's administration, said that the Ukrainian reserve preparing to counterattack in the south was destroyed near Bakhmut, and said that there are only 150,000 people left in combat strength!
"Bakhmut is a huge massacre for Ukrainians," he said. In Bakhmut, they had about 14-15 brigades of 4000 people each. With the exception of two or three brigades, they are now retreating. They lost 70% of their troops. ”
If true, the Bakhmut army has lost almost 42,000. That's a horrible number. The Bakhmut meat grinder really lives up to its name!
In addition, he added: "The towns around Bakhmut, north, east and west have surrendered." Sultar also fell into the hands of the Russians. Bakhmut's positions were difficult to maintain and soon fell. The time will be within two to three weeks. More critically, the Ukrainians tried to create reserves for the offensive in the southern Kherson, but these reserves are now consumed during the campaign in Bakhmut. Only 14-150,000 people in Ukraine are now combatable. ”
News 2: French media: Prigogin, the boss of the Wagner Group, asked Putin to fight, and recruited troops in a big way, planning to expand to more than 180,000 people
According to French media reports, Prigogin, the boss of the Wagner Group, recently asked Putin to ask Putin to hand over a larger share of the Russian-Ukrainian war to Wagner to complete, and did not need Russia to pay any funds, on the condition that Russia allow the Wagner Group to smuggle oil and gas from Russia to other countries.
In addition, the report also said that according to information from Wagner's high-level management, Wagner's current mercenary recruitment offices in Syria, Libya, Afghanistan and the Middle East and South America have begun to work at full capacity, with a recruitment target of 180,000~350,000, which shows that the Wagner Group has begun to prepare for taking over the Russian-Ukrainian war.
News three, Polish press: Warsaw will fall in case of Russia fighting back against NATO aggression
On January 19, Sylvia Gorlitskaya, a columnist for Polish Thought, said that the Polish authorities could involve the country in a military confrontation with Moscow, which would lead to the destruction of Warsaw.
Write at the end
Overall, the chances of the Russian army taking Bakhmut are high. However, the war is bound to be more brutal, and controlling the entire territory of Donbas is Russia's core strategy, but at the same time, Russia must consider the possibility of the fate of the United States and NATO. This may be the main reason why Russia has not launched a large-scale offensive.
In addition, even if Donbass takes a clear initiative in the direction of Russia, there is no guarantee that the Ukrainian army will not capture Crimea. The Ukrainian army's attack on Crimea is not only to encircle Wei and save Zhao, but also to cause Ukrainians to fall into a frenzy, and Russia has to defend.