On January 12, 2023, China CITIC Bank released its 2022 performance report, which will be analyzed from several aspects such as revenue, assets, non-performing and expected dividends. The specific contents are as follows:
1. Revenue analysis
Figure 1
Analysis: It can be seen from the above that the revenue increased by 3.34% year-on-year. If the growth rate of total assets is approximately equal to the growth rate of risk assets, combined with the following data, it can be preliminarily seen that the net interest margin is declining year-on-year. Since the express report did not disclose too many details, the future annual report will focus on the details of the net interest margin after the disclosure. Secondly, the year-on-year growth rate of pre-tax profit and net profit attributable to the parent is much greater than the growth rate of revenue, which is estimated to be a reduction in the provision for credit impairment losses. Like the net interest margin, there is too little information to disclose, and it can only be preliminarily judged, and the details will be analyzed after the annual report comes out.
2. Asset analysis
Figure II
Analysis: As shown in the chart above, total assets increased by 6.29% year-on-year, but a detailed assessment could not be carried out because total liabilities, loans and total deposits were not disclosed. Combined with the financial reports of China Merchants Bank and Ping An Bank analyzed earlier, China CITIC Bank is likely to have a similar situation, that is, the growth rate of deposits is higher than the growth rate of loans, and it is also facing the problem of asset shortage.
3. Analysis of non-performing loans
Figure III
Analysis: As shown in the chart above, the non-performing rate decreased by 0.25% compared to the same period last year. The provision coverage ratio increased by 10.46% year-on-year. However, because the disclosed data is not too detailed to know the newly generated adverse situation, the annual report will focus on it.
It can be preliminarily judged from the above that the overall asset quality is controllable.
4. Dividend forecast in 2022
Figure IV
Analysis: As shown in the figure above, there are two assumptions, one is that the total share capital is unchanged, and the other is that the dividend ratio is unchanged. Through the above data, it can be expected that the dividend in 2023 will be about 0.337 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.61%. The above data is a derivation estimate, do not use it as an investment basis, the specific dividend situation, please refer to the actual annual report disclosure.
To sum up, judging from the performance report disclosed so far, the overall performance of China CITIC Bank last year was average, which can only be said to be modest and unremarkable. This is similar to the previous situation of China Merchants Bank and Ping An Bank, which adjusted profits by reducing credit impairment provisions, which is a common means to make up for apologies. This is closely related to the overall economic situation and industry environment in 2022, and is more affected by external factors. Therefore, this performance is acceptable. In addition, due to the limited information of the express report, many key evaluation indicators cannot be determined, such as net interest margin, non-interest income, new non-generation, recharge rate, etc., and the details still need to wait for the disclosure of the annual report before comprehensively evaluating the performance of the performance.
The above is just a personal opinion and should not be taken as investment advice. Special reminder: your investment is your choice, my investment is my decision!