"China's Road and China's Economic Development: 70 Years"
China's road and China's economic development for 70 years
(China Road Series)
Li Yining, Gao Shangquan, Liu Wei, Cheng Zhiqiang, Zhao Qiuyun, Commercial Press, 2019 edition
About the author:
Gao Shangquan, researcher and professor. Senior economist, engaged in policy research for a long time. Former Vice Chairman of the National Structural Reform Commission, former President of the China Economic System Reform Research Association, Member of the 8th and 9th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference. Member of the United Nations Committee for Development Policy. He graduated from the Department of Economics of St. John's University in Shanghai in 1952, and served as Director and Deputy Director of the National Structural Reform Commission from 1982, Director of the China Institute of Structural Reform, and Deputy Director of the National Structural Reform Commission from 1985 to 1993. In 1999, he served as the president of the China Economic System Reform Research Association. Since the beginning of reform and opening up, he has participated in the drafting of six important central documents.
One
The significance and necessity of the reform of the social insurance system
The reform of the social insurance system is necessary to achieve social stability and economic stability
The reform of the social insurance system is an important part of the reform of the economic system, which can provide basic living guarantees for those who need the most help, such as the elderly retirees, unemployed workers, disabled employees and the survivors of the deceased, in a timely manner, so it has a strong function of social stabilizer. The reform of the social insurance system is the need to alleviate the pressure of population agingAt present, I am facing the increasingly severe challenge of population aging. First, the development speed is fast; Second, compared with the level of economic development, the aging process of the mainland population is ahead of schedule. By 2000, the mainland's economic development was still in the stage of moderate prosperity, but the age structure of the population had begun to enter the stage of aging, and the number of pensions supported by each worker was equivalent to the level of developed countries in 1980. When the mainland enters the old-age society in 2000, the retirement and pension expenses alone will reach more than 100 billion yuan, and the financial burden will be unbearable. The current pension fund is a pay-as-you-go system, lacks a long-term accumulation of reserve funds, and does not meet the needs of aging. Therefore, we must seize the time to formulate an effective social insurance system as soon as possible, establish a pension reserve fund system, and avoid or reduce the various social and economic problems caused by the rapid emergence of a large number of elderly people. The reform of the social insurance system is the need to correctly guide the direction of consumption and increase the input of funds for production and construction, and at the end of 1989, the cumulative balance of social pooled insurance and unemployment insurance funds for the retirement expenses of employees of the whole people in the mainland was more than 8 billion yuan. If the next step is to gradually establish an endowment insurance system for urban enterprise workers, township enterprise employees, employees of "three capital" enterprises, individual workers and farmers in some wealthy areas (with a per capita annual income of more than 70 yuan) in accordance with the statutory compulsory savings fund, preliminary calculations, the annual payment of insurance premiums from individual workers and units can raise about 30 billion yuan of pension funds. The raising and rational use of such a large amount of funds is of great practical significance for adjusting the consumption structure, delaying consumption expenditure, curbing inflation, alleviating the contradiction of insufficient construction funds, and increasing effective investment and effective supply. The reform of the social insurance system is the need for deepening enterprise reform and adjusting the industrial structure, the determination of enterprise autonomy in operation, the implementation of the enterprise bankruptcy law, the existence and steady development of various economic components, the rational flow of labor, and the promotion of governance and rectification, etc., all urgently require the establishment of a social insurance system corresponding to it as soon as possible. The mainland's industrial structure, product structure, and enterprise organizational structure are extremely irrational, and the phenomenon of duplicate construction and duplicate production is very serious. At present, the weak market is an excellent opportunity to adjust the structure, but due to the lack of social security reform, it is difficult to adjust the structure. The bankruptcy law of mainland enterprises has long been promulgated and implemented, but there are very few real bankruptcy, mainly because the employee unemployment insurance has not kept up after the bankruptcy.
Two
The current situation and main problems of the reform of the social insurance system
The reform of the mainland's social insurance system began in 1984 with the implementation of social pooling of old-age insurance for employees of state-owned enterprises, which initially alleviated the contradiction between the new and old enterprises that the burden of retirement expenses was excessively light and heavy, ensured the livelihood of retired workers, and promoted social stability and unity. Pilots of unemployed insurance and medical insurance have also been carried out in some places. Rural old-age insurance is still in the pilot stage, only carried out in a small scope, but the pension problem of elderly farmers who participate in old-age insurance has been initially solved. It not only plays a positive role in guiding consumption and stabilizing people's hearts, but also makes the traditional way of raising children and preventing old age is changing. However, on the whole, the current social insurance system is basically still the traditional social insurance system, which cannot meet the requirements of reform and opening up, the development of a planned commodity economy and the pressure of aging. The main problems existing in the current social insurance system are: the financing mode of the current social insurance system in the mainland has the following characteristics: first, it is financed by expenditure and pays as you go; The second is social coordination in different scopes, with the provincial, prefectural and county levels at the overall level, with the latter as the mainstay; Second, except for a symbolic part of the insurance premiums paid by contract workers, the insured individuals generally do not pay any social insurance contributions, and all their funds come from the state and enterprises. At present, the financing model of the mainland social insurance system needs to consider the following four aspects: First, continue to implement the pay-as-you-go system, or the fund accumulation system? Second, the implementation of social pooled insurance, or statutory individual savings fund insurance, or a combination of social pooled insurance and statutory individual savings fund insurance? Third, the source of funds, should the insured also pay a certain percentage of the insurance premium? Fourth, in what form will the funds be raised? In the form of social insurance taxes, or will they remain in the form of current contributions? Some of the above four issues are relatively clear, and people's understanding is relatively consistent. For example, the issue of personal payment is now only a question of implementation form and timing. But some issues, especially the first two, are highly controversial and difficult to decide for a while, because in a sense, we are facing a dilemma. For example, as far as pension insurance is concerned, on the one hand, we are facing the pressure of an aging population, and retirement pension insurance is actually a long-term payment project. Since the payment of funds is long-term, its income should also adopt the method of pre-financing and accumulation, which is conducive to balancing the burden of Changs, and the country will not bear heavy financial burdens, thereby alleviating the pressure contradiction of population aging. On the other hand, we have not yet fully met a series of prerequisites and conditions required by the pre-financing accumulation system, including all aspects of affordability, as well as inflation, price and interest rate levels, investment markets, investment policies, management levels, and so on. Another difficult problem in the financing model is the choice between implementing integrated social pooled insurance, statutory individual savings fund insurance, or a combination of both, that is, a combination of social pooled insurance and statutory individual savings fund insurance. The main purpose of social insurance is to provide some kind of income (monetary or non-monetary) protection for social workers who once had a normal income, but are currently temporarily or permanently incapacitated due to factors beyond the control and resistance of the individual, so as to ensure the normal survival of their individuals and their families. Therefore, the basic objectives of social insurance are social stability and social equity. The raising of funds, the social adjustment and distribution of income, and the sharing of costs and risks are the main means to achieve this basic goal. Specifically, it includes both vertical and horizontal income adjustment and risk sharing, that is, the adjustment and risk sharing of the entire income of the individual worker, as well as the income adjustment and risk sharing among members of social labor. The social pooled insurance system is the traditional model of endowment insurance in Western countries, which is in line with income adjustment and risk sharing among horizontal social members, but it has not yet found a way out in the face of aging. In particular, the pay-as-you-go pooling system, insurance premiums are raised from the income distribution of employees, which will gradually intensify social and economic contradictions in the process of aging. If the social cost is high if the pooling of pay-as-you-go is expanded to the pooling of fund accumulation. Statutory individual savings fund insurance, typically the central provident fund system, originated in developing countries in the East. Singapore's Central Provident Fund (CPF) system was established in 1955 under difficult economic circumstances, with both employers and employees contributing and depositing insurance funds in personal accounts. For a worker, part of the entire income of his young labor should be stored and adjusted to retirement, but the function of income adjustment and risk sharing between members of society, that is, mutual assistance and mutual assistance, is weak. In some welfare states, the social pooled endowment insurance fund faces difficulties such as income and expenditure and the threat of aging, and the social pooled basic insurance is constrained by social and economic factors, so the personal savings fund insurance (provident fund) has a development trend. In the income of retired employees, the provident fund accounts for a considerable proportion. Various types of private annuities for middle-income and above-middle-income earners in the United States have accounted for the majority of their retirement income, and the amount of private annuity savings in the United States has exceeded $1 trillion for investment projects. Which financing model our country chooses is still being explored. One view is that unified basic insurance of the social pooling type should be established in mainland cities and towns; Another opinion advocates the choice of a financing model that combines the pay-as-you-go social pooling system and the statutory individual account savings fund system, and believes that if the whole society implements unified social pooling basic insurance, the mainland does not yet have the conditions. If we blindly pursue the expansion of social coverage and reform in a hurry, we will not achieve it quickly. Moreover, welfare benefits are rigid, and once established, it is difficult to retire, and it is easy to fall into a dilemma. It is necessary to choose a financing model that is more feasible at present and has little long-term risk, not only to maintain the functional advantages of mutual assistance and mutual assistance in social pooling, but also to give play to the enthusiasm of individual self-help, establish the concept of "saving money for the elderly", and overcome the drawbacks of too much state contracting. Social insurance financing should be reasonably shared by the state, enterprises and individuals, first of all, to break through the practice of individuals not paying premiums, so it is necessary to introduce the savings fund model of personal accounts. It is necessary to seriously study Singapore's practice of raising social insurance funds and draw useful experience in light of the mainland's situation. Fujian Province has established a two-tier trial system combining basic endowment insurance and supplementary endowment insurance with savings accumulation in collectively-owned enterprises, which will soon be extended to 70% of the province's coverage. Therefore, it is conceivable to explore the adoption of a financing model that combines the pay-as-you-go social pooling system and the savings fund system of personal accounts, which is more in line with the basic principles of mainland national conditions and social insurance, and gives full play to the function of combining individual self-help and social mutual assistance. In addition to the introduction of supplementary old-age insurance under the savings fund system by the employees of state-owned enterprises on the basis of improving the social pooling system, the establishment of a two-tier old-age insurance system and a savings fund system in urban collective enterprises, and the employees of rural township enterprises, peasants in wealthy areas, and employees of urban self-employed, private enterprises and "three-capital" enterprises have established old-age insurance under the savings fund system from the very beginning, and at the same time set up a mutual aid fund. From the perspective of international experience, the preservation and appreciation of the value of social insurance accumulation funds is a very difficult issue. This is because the investment of such funds is different from commercial investment, and the purpose of social insurance requires that such investment must be very safe and reliable, and can maintain and increase its value. This requires a series of social, political and economic conditions as a premise. This includes the level of inflation, the development of the investment market, the adequacy of the investment autonomy of the operating institution, and the level of investment management, among others. Obviously, it is still difficult for the mainland to meet the level or degree of objective requirements in all aspects at present and for some time. Therefore, if the fund accumulation system or partial accumulation system is implemented, the problem of maintaining and increasing the value of the fund will continue to plague us. At present, there are two major problems in the social insurance management system: First, there are many government departments, multiple management, and the lack of macro coordination and balance mechanism, which is easy to cause contradictions that are mutually ripped and blamed. Second, there is no separation between government affairs, legislative supervision is confused with the handling of executive functions, and there is a lack of a strong supervision and management mechanism. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen leadership and rationalize the management system, which is a key step to effectively promote the reform of the social insurance system. In addition to the above three major issues, in the process of promoting the reform of the social insurance system, we must also pay attention to the following three issues: First, the choice of insurance system must be cautious. Before making a decision, be sure to listen to the opinions of all sides, especially the opposing ones. It is necessary to take into account all possible scenarios and difficulties. Second, the reform and improvement of the social insurance system is a long-term undertaking and cannot be rushed. The mainland's experience in reform over the past 10 years has also warned us to fight steadily and step by step to advance the reform of the social insurance system. Third, even if individual pilots are carried out, attention should be paid to the connection between the pilot and the future overall system. Judging from the current situation, it is unlikely that the mainland's social insurance system will be a unified model in the coming period, but the overall direction and goal should be the same, and the differences between each other should not be too large, otherwise it is not conducive to the flow of labor.
Three.
Ideas and countermeasures for the reform of the social insurance system
1. Gradually expand the coverage of social insurance. At present, the coverage of the social insurance system is small, and small collective enterprises at and below the town, district and county level, newly developed collective enterprises in recent years, "three-capital" enterprises, private enterprises, individual industrial and commercial enterprises, and employees of township enterprises have not yet established a retirement pension insurance system; Since the implementation of the household joint production contract responsibility system in rural areas, the old-age security has also been affected. Therefore, it is necessary to gradually bring urban social workers whose main source of livelihood is wage income into the scope of different forms of social insurance systems, including workers under collective ownership, Chinese employees in "three capital" enterprises, private enterprises and individual industrial and commercial workers in urban areas. At the same time, it is necessary to gradually establish a rural old-age security system, first in a small number of rural areas that have become wealthy.
2. The focus of the reform of the social insurance system. From the perspective of the situation on the mainland, the first thing to consider is the establishment of old-age, medical, unemployment, work-related injury insurance, etc., with the focus on old-age insurance and unemployment insurance. 3. Implement a partially accumulated financing model. From the perspective of the aging trend of the population, the postponement of part of consumption and the requirement of reforming the pension expenses of the state and enterprises, pension insurance is the first thing that should be carried out in social insurance reform. However, there are different views on what kind of endowment insurance system to establish and what kind of financing model is more suitable for the mainland's national conditions and the development of the commodity economy. In contrast, it is more advantageous to implement partial accumulation and adopt a financing model that combines the pay-as-you-go system with the statutory personal savings fund. We envisage that this system could first be tried among social workers outside the national units, including employees of "three capital" enterprises, employees of township enterprises, self-employed workers, and farmers in wealthy coastal areas. This will not have much impact on finances. Of course, this system is more suitable for young people. For middle-aged and elderly workers, it is also necessary to formulate a separate transition method. As for what kind of endowment insurance financing model is adopted by the national units, and how to convert it into a way for individuals and units to pay insurance premiums, we should continue to study and explore. However, it should be clear that the current pension pooling scheme must be further reformed and improved, including the gradual introduction of individual contributions to part of the insurance premium. 4. Preservation and appreciation of the value of social insurance funds. At present, there is a lack of clear policy management and necessary measures and means for the preservation and appreciation of the actual accumulation fund. If the fund accumulation system or partial fund accumulation system is implemented in the future, the preservation and appreciation of the value of the social insurance accumulation fund will be more urgent, especially in the case of inflation, the domestic investment market is not developed, the economic affordability of all parties is low, and the management level is limited. Therefore, it is necessary to study a series of macro policies and measures such as the withdrawal ratio, accumulation range, and value preservation and appreciation of social insurance funds. 5. Earnestly grasp the pilot reform projects. The state has decided to carry out comprehensive pilot reform of the social insurance system in Shenzhen and Hainan, pilot work of medical insurance reform in Dandong and other places, and pilot work of rural endowment insurance in Dalian and other places. At present, we should concentrate our efforts on doing a good job in data measurement, program formulation, demonstration consultation and implementation, and earnestly promote the reform pilot work. 6. Organize various forms of personnel training. The training of personnel in the system reform system should be different from the training of functional departments, and at present, it seems that more emphasis should be placed on the training of macro and policy-oriented management capabilities. 7. Strengthen leadership and reform the social insurance management system. Separate the legislative, law enforcement and supervision functions of social insurance, form a management mechanism that supports each other and supervises and restricts each other, and establish management institutions that are compatible with this. [This article is selected from "China's Road and China's Economic Development in 70 Years"]