Human nature is simple, and although most people do not want to talk about it head-on, facts are facts, not subject to human will.
Desire, constant greed, harshness, always wanting to spend the least cost to get the maximum benefit. Therefore, Tesla cut global prices at the beginning of 2023 and directly received a large number of orders. In the Chinese market, 30,000 orders in 3 days, and a single store in Shanghai can receive 150 orders in 1 day. Although the official has not announced how powerful its record is, from the Tesla experience stores we have asked and observed, this situation is basically true. Of course, how much this trend can eventually translate into actual sales, but also depends on the number of chargebacks and actual deliveries.
Because, immediately following Tesla's pricing changes, a number of Chinese car companies have also begun a new round of changes, AITO began to follow the decline, the relevant policy rights and interests are more sincere than Tesla, the new car pricing is lowered, but also provide old owners with points worth about 2-30,000 yuan, car maintenance, warranty and other rights. Old car owners are happy, new car owners are also happy, it is clear that car companies from China do not eat the "self-centered" losses of American car companies, and they are still very fond of goodwill.
Xpeng Motors also released a new price on January 17, Xpeng G3i new car price of 14.89-176,900 yuan, Xpeng P5 15.69-202,900 yuan, Xpeng P7 20.99-249,900 yuan, the overall decrease of 2-36,000 yuan. For old users within 1 year, warranty and maintenance are also given away.
With the price reduction on the bright side, the secret chain price reduction tide has also begun, as for when it will turn to the official price adjustment on the bright side, it depends on whether each car company can bear the order snatched away by Tesla.
The new force chain price reduction tide, this time, is more fierce than the end of 2022
In this day and age, if the new forces want fire, they must have humanity. The expression and thinking of the founder will make car owners and netizens feel empathy to car companies and models.
Musk has always been known for being bold and innovative, and its immediate price reduction is not surprising, and the global price reduction has attracted a certain amount of attention, but in the end, it was all the founder's sentence "When the price rises, why doesn't anyone make up the difference?" "Flattened.
As long as the founder has some truth in what he said, then public opinion can often pass smoothly. However, this is only a short-term effect, cars have always been a long-term industry, think of Zotye, Lifan, Zhidou, Borgward, they also have highlight moments.
Anyway, in the open and in the dark, after Tesla's official reduction, the chain price reduction tide has substantially occurred, and the market law is such that it is not transferred by the will of the enterprise. At the end of 2022, when Tesla gave a limited-time subsidy, in fact, the experience stores of the major new forces have given a way to respond, Xiaopeng, Zerorun, Nezha, etc. have cash discounts, NIO is to give a large number of official discounts on financial installments, and the bicycle should be pasted into tens of thousands of interest, ideally in the form of subsidies + cash discounts.
At present, Tesla Model 3 price adjustment to 22.99-329,900 yuan, Model Y price adjustment to 25.99-359,900 yuan, the impact is huge. For example, Model 3's old rival, Xpeng P7, has a guidance price of 229,900 yuan for the 586G version with the same battery life as Tesla, which is tied with Model 3 after grouting The cheaper star model BYD Seal is actually under pressure, which previously had a price advantage of more than 50,000 yuan in the face of Model 3 (October 24, 2022 guidance price, 26.59-349,900 yuan), and now it is less than 20,000 yuan.
The price reduction of Model Y is more lethal, and on October 24, 2022, its guidance price range was lowered to 31.69-417,900 yuan, and the most advanced version has a range of 545 kilometers. At that time, its opponent list directly disappeared NIO ES6, ideal ONE, Xpeng G9, and now with the drop to 25.99-359,900 yuan, Model Y has directly dropped to the frigate 07 segment. In other words, after the crazy drop in price, among the brands of the same popularity, the Model Y is so cheap that there is no rival.
Therefore, returning to the reality of the automotive terminal market, the news flying in the network must eventually be finally defined by what happens in reality.
On January 13, Li Xiang said on Weibo that Li Auto would not follow Tesla to reduce prices, but in fact, Beijing still has many Li ONE new cars or quasi-new cars, and there is a discount ceiling of 60,000 yuan just after the New Year's Day holiday. At the Haikou Auto Show at the beginning of 2023, when I sneaked to the ideal booth, the sales of the booth not only introduced me to the new car with a large space and a lot of screens, but also secretly dialed, "If you really want to buy, you can also have a price surprise."
Xiaopeng has already fallen, will NIO descend or not? At present, there is no movement, Li Bin said in an interview that this is more harmful to the user group, and NIO is not currently in the same range as Tesla, in other words, the user group is different. The current policy is basically the same as before, and there are certain policies on financial installment.
As for the two new new force car companies that are performing well in 2022, the overall sales volume of Zerorun and Nezha is still in the low price range, Nezha S and Leap C01, the two models that have recently been listed, have a low price advantage, and they are still in a state of just entering the game, and the brand as a whole has not been too affected by the Tesla price reduction tide chain reaction.
Of course, in addition to the new forces, the entire model of the same price is actually surging undercurrent. For example, many new Model 3 order users have recently come from BYD, and after the official drop, they found that they only needed to increase their budget very little, and finally adjusted their car purchase choices. In fact, at the beginning of 2022, some BYD models have cash discounts at the terminal, and with more and more orders for vehicles, the 4S shop terminals that do not worry about selling will eventually have no desire for promotion. At present, BYD's sales trend is still good, but it is not ruled out that it will give preferential promotions as Tesla scrambles for orders.
Tesla and new forces will continue to fall
Continuous price changes, continuous promotion, many consumers are obviously waiting and seeing.
"Several people in the same group in the office have recently ordered Model Y, but I am ready to wait, because a simple look at its global official decline shows that the stock market reacts a bit abnormally." Buddy who works in the head Internet company, his opinion is not to follow the trend.
Throughout 2022, Tesla's stock price and market capitalization have been a hot topic, Elon Musk became the world's richest man, but also set a world record for the largest loss of personal wealth in history, according to Forbes estimates, since November 2021, he has lost about $182 billion, while many sources show that the actual loss may be close to $200 billion.
Well, the paradox arises. Although Tesla's performance will be significantly improved due to soaring sales and order numbers, the capital market has not recognized the continuous growth of orders so far. Even BYD is currently facing the same challenge. With the continuous rise in sales, new energy vehicles have once again achieved good results in the world, but Buffett has continuously reduced his holdings, and the stock price and market value have declined in fluctuations.
At present, many dimensions of the capital market are not developed in a conventional form, and have been analyzed by many institutions around the world as "many capital's concerns about recession, and now they are constantly realizing, waiting for the bubble to be punctured, and then entering the market to make a bigger difference."
Elon Musk has said several times that he is extremely worried about the economy. Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers also recently predicted that the U.S. economy will continue to face recession in 2023. In this situation, for giant companies, the importance of market capitalization and stock prices will decline at a certain stage, and they will seek more cash flow to ensure healthy operation. For those non-giant enterprises that need hot money, how to get new money from the stock market will directly affect their next research and development, channel construction, product definition, user operation, etc., and even survive.
Then the trajectory of the matter is very clear, you can ignore Musk's response without discussing why Tesla officially surrendered, you can ignore Musk's response (after all, many previous responses are also invalid). But with its official decline, all car companies will have to face a situation and scramble for more cash flow, because the hot money in the stock market is clearly accelerating outflow. As for when it will return, it is unknown.
Since the general environment is like this, as new energy vehicles really become a red sea in 2022, all companies involved in it have to face a topic, "Everyone is falling, and they must also fall." ”
Buy early and suffer early? Buy late and enjoy late?
And back to the topic of consumers, is it a good time to buy these official models?
Everyone's consumption needs and usage needs are different, so there is no accurate advice. However, events in several dimensions will bring a series of new changes in the chain that follow. To use a well-understood statement, in the early days of a hundred schools of thought, like smartphones, buying early will take more risk of obsolescence, which is far higher than traditional fuel.
First and foremost is the topic of whether prices will continue to change. There are two factors in this topic, about the decline in battery costs and the increasingly fierce market competition, whether car companies will choose to further reduce prices.
The price of lithium carbonate, the key raw material of power batteries, has begun to decline, and at the end of November 22, the first stop in 18 weeks occurred, and the average market price of battery-grade lithium carbonate began to decline from more than 600,000 yuan / ton. After entering January 2023, the data on January 16 was 476,500 yuan / ton, down 100,000 yuan / ton from the first half of November last year. In addition, midstream lithium battery production in the recent initial excess, Morgan Stanley report shows that lithium supply in 2023 will increase by 22%, and due to poor economic conditions, it is expected that the sales of automobiles/electric vehicles will be significantly lower than in 2022.
Large institutions expect that in the second half of 2023, the price of lithium carbonate will fall back to normal. The bosses of car companies are more cautious in their forecasts, such as Li Xiang, who said that it will not return to normal until 2024. Each company is basically putting new technology models on the market, and Europe's Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Volkswagen Group will smash the latest technology new energy vehicles around 2024, and consumers will obviously face a state of overwhelm. And the fiercer the market competition, the price war will really begin.
Will the price continue to be reduced? Anyway, Tesla's cost advantage is obvious, and it still has room to explore. As long as it wants to continue to adjust prices, the Model 3 can still make money within 200,000 yuan, and a new round of price war will begin at any time.
The rights and interests of the old car owner are visibly damaged. This damage, at the same time about used cars, confidence.
If anyone in the Chinese auto industry hates Musk the most, the answer is undoubtedly second-hand car dealers. On New Year's Day 2021, Model Y was released for sale at a price of 33.99-369,900 yuan, because the order volume was too large, and its pickup cycle was getting longer and longer, which also made it have a good circulation speed in the second-hand car market. 28-300,000 yuan to collect the car, about 29-310,000 to sell, earn the difference. However, with Tesla's round of official decline, the bicycle lost at least 30,000-40,000 yuan, which is the current situation of second-hand car circulation of its models.
Although some car owners say that as long as they do not sell, they will not lose, but the actual situation is that as the price continues to fall, and it is possible to continue to explore in the future, the iron law of "used car prices are lower than new cars" will make the residual value continue to decline. It is quite similar to Samsung's earliest play with smartphones in China, but it encountered the price butcher of Xiaomi. When the price butcher in the market is really born, the value of tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands may evaporate at any time.
Will Tesla be the price butcher? Now it is. But after becoming a price butcher to stand firm in the market, and then want to return to the high-end, it is likely to be unsuccessful with several times the effort, and such cases abound in many fields.
In addition, European car companies have been holding back corresponding big moves, such as Mercedes-Benz in L3 autonomous driving, BMW is also about to win. Once the policy is rapidly liberalized in recent years, Tesla, which only relies on vision, will have innate shortcomings, and whether it can be shortlisted for the corresponding regulations in the world is also a problem. For ease of understanding, you can consider switching 4G and 5G mobile phones. A good product in the 4G era, because it cannot or needs to spend a high price to upgrade to 5G, then consumers' desire to give up will naturally be strong.
and, a new thinking about business logic. Since human beings entered the commodity society, Tesla's series of price adjustment behaviors are actually said to follow the first principle, and the advantages are much higher than other car companies, which is not completely true. When the market competition was insufficient, Toyota and others also sold the Corolla in the Chinese market to a maximum of nearly 200,000 yuan, until they met the BYD F3, and then returned to normal.
When a brand has been in a downward trend, it is obvious that new consumers benefit, but in the deeper sense, it is the retention of users to pay. In short, the continuous decline will make the market re-recognize its positioning to a low level, and in the mature fully competitive market, there is no case that can rise back. In other words, from luxury to thrift, from thrift to luxury.
Write at the end
Smart electric vehicles are becoming more and more popular nowadays, and it is naturally early to taste. However, for users who just need users and consumer users, the attitudes that the two should have are completely different. In addition to meeting the needs of use, users should consider more about the maintenance of value, and consumer users, because they have more budget in hand, so there are more opportunities for trial and error, but whose money is not blown by the wind, it doesn't matter on the surface, and finally there will be an answer.
Of course, things have to be viewed on two sides, the interests of old owners and brand goodwill are damaged, but the catfish effect on the market is beneficial. Whether the price of smart electric vehicles is inflated, with the chain price reduction triggered by Tesla, there will also be an answer.
In short, most car owners in China are just in need, buy early and enjoy the Internet golden sentence, in this round of price change, because of the different practices of different brands, will change.