Before the outbreak of the Sino-Japanese War, the entire Qing dynasty disdained Japan. Kang Youwei and other "patriotic intellectuals" are on the rise of populist sentiment, and it is generally believed that Japan's "land people are less than one-tenth of China's" and "rough scale, strong and strong outside", which is not worth mentioning at all; Li Hongzhang also scoffed at the results of their reform of the law, saying that Japan "is so strong for reason, but the country has recently picked up people's teeth, can use backdoor guns, can open railways, coal mines, can learn foreign languages and books, can borrow national bonds, and can make foreign silver and ears", and felt that the foreign affairs movement was much more clever than the Meiji Restoration.
Kang Youwei and Li Hongzhang's views were conservative at the time, and Zeng Guangjun, the eldest son of Zeng Guofan, even believed that "China can take this opportunity to bent on fighting a war, annihilating Japan, and establishing miraculous achievements, not only eliminating the troubles of lying in the East, but also spying on the West from afar", and confidently said: Japan dares to attack, and will destroy the country in World War I.
To use an inappropriate analogy, the Chinese people at that time looked at Japan as we look at Vietnam today, and did not regard them as qualified opponents at all.
Before the war, in order to scrape together 2 million taels of silver to buy the cruiser Yoshino, the emperor ate only one meal a day, the imperial princess sold gold and silver jewelry, and all public officials donated one-tenth of their salaries... When the news reached the Forbidden City, Cixi almost laughed her teeth off, because her old man spent more than 10 million taels of silver for a casual birthday, and the cost of smoking hookah alone a year was enough to buy a Yoshino.
The fiasco of the Sino-Japanese War dampened the self-esteem of the whole of China, and it was at that time that our cultural people "denied all historical and cultural traditions". Kang Youwei, this "patriotic V", became a "hater of the country" overnight, thinking that everything was wrong in China, took the lead in initiating a bus to write a letter, cheered up his arms and then fled himself, but sent the "six gentlemen of Peng" to the guillotine.
Of course, the system of the Qing Dynasty has indeed rotted to the root, even if there is no Sino-Japanese War, under the hunting of the great powers, sooner or later changes will occur, but the Japanese sneak attack obviously made the Qing Dynasty up and down in a mess: the foreign affairs movement that had achieved initial results was thrown into the cold, the leaders of various armies took the opportunity to support their own dignity, and the proxy forces supported by the great powers continued to grow... In the end, China was dragged into the chaos of warlord wars.
Before the Sino-Japanese War, Western public opinion believed that this was a "battle for the seat of the last great power", and it was generally believed that China had a better chance of victory, and if the Beiyang Navy could win smoothly, there would be no subsequent Russo-Japanese War, the 918 Incident and a full-scale war of aggression against China, and China's modern history would be a different scene.
It is no exaggeration to say that the timing of this sneak attack by the Japanese was just right, and with a surprise victory, they successfully stole China's national fortune for half a century.
The Chinese nation has endured vicissitudes for a long time, and has been suppressed by foreign races several times since Qin Shi Huang, but it has finally been able to get out of the trough and return to the peak, exercising strong resilience.
The history of civilization is long, and failure caused by carelessness is inevitable. After the Sino-Japanese War, the Beiyang Naval Division, known as the "First Navy of the Far East", was destroyed, the sea border lost its barrier, Western powers flocked in, and China fell into the dilemma of being divided or even reduced to a colony.
Although China at the beginning of the 20th century was weak, it did not fall.
The Northeast Yizhi in 1928 and the Central Plains War in 1930 symbolized the formal reunification of China, which had been in the chaos of warlords for a long time, which was another historical opportunity for China's rise.
Although we are now criticized of what Chiang Kai-shek's government did, we must also admit that the Nanjing Nationalist government in 1930 reorganized a scattered China, and although it has not yet been able to "twist into a rope", it is also a historical progress compared with the chaos after the Xinhai Revolution.
There are several indicators that can prove this "progress".
The first indicator is tariffs. In the first two decades of the twentieth century, China signed too many unequal treaties, became a dumping market for the great powers, and tariff rights could not be discussed; In 1929, Nanjing proposed tariff autonomy and significantly increased the tariff rate from 1931, which had reached 25% in 1934. This data shows that the Nanjing government has already protected the development of national industry and commerce through tariffs.
The second indicator is currency. In 1935, the National Government resisted the pressure of the United States, abandoned the silver standard, implemented a legal currency policy, and concentrated all silver and foreign exchange in the National Bank; At the same time, the fiat currency is tied to the pound sterling exchange rate, and 1 fiat currency is fixed to 1 shilling 2.5 pence. As a result, China's financial system has also begun to escape the control of the great powers, and Western attempts to harvest China's wealth by controlling the price of silver will not work. Financial independence meant that the wealth created by Chinese would not be easily lost, and domestic capital accumulation began to accelerate.
The third indicator is industry. From 1926 to 1936, the average annual growth rate of China's industry was 7.6%, when Western countries generally fell into economic crisis, the economy did not advance but retreated, China and the Soviet Union bucked the trend, were the two fastest industrial development economies at that time.
The fourth indicator is trade. The long outflow of wealth from China after the Opium War was reversed after China's currency reform in 1935. In just a few months after the reforms, China achieved a trade surplus it had not seen in decades.
Having said all this, I do not want to advocate the achievements of the so-called "golden decade" of the Republic of China, and the limitations of the Nanjing government have always been there. However, even if they represent the interests of big landlords and big bourgeoisie, they have finally pulled out part of the suction blood vessels inserted by the great powers into China.
The problem of the Nanjing government is actually a problem of distribution, that is, "a small amount of Chinese occupies a lot of wealth", which in any case is better than "foreigners oppressing Chinese".
Judging from all indications, China in the thirties has once again stood on the starting line of take-off, and if it is not forcibly interrupted by foreign enemies, we will most likely return to the world's top ten and the first level in Asia in the forties and fifties.
In December 1936, Chen Cheng judged: "If we launch a war against Japan now, we will definitely be in a passive position; After another year, at least a semi-active position can be obtained; Two years later, you can achieve a completely active position. ”
It can be seen that in the eyes of the Kuomintang high-level at that time, the strength of China and Japan was already at the critical point of "offensive and defensive transposition".
Unfortunately, the Japanese seized this fleeting "historical opportunity" and launched a full-scale war of aggression against China at a time when China's two feet were already off the ground and was about to soar into the sky.
Before the July Seven Incident, the Chinese Embassy in Japan reported to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs: "The Japanese government and opposition feel that China's increasing centralization, armament enhancement and national defense construction will move from resisting Japan to insulting Japan, and Japan will not hesitate to use all means, even directly to seize power in China." ”
In other words, before the outbreak of the Anti-Japanese War, the Japanese had realized that China would soon overtake on a curve and would find themselves to settle the score sooner or later, so they made up their minds and played with their lives to stop China's rise.
Since the Sino-Japanese War, Japan has set its sights on China, and we can't see that we have achieved a little. Today, if you want to make a "ranking of the countries most afraid of China's rise", Japan will definitely rank first.
To explain international relations with "jealousy" is superficial. There are three reasons why the Japanese have such a mentality.
First, fear of retaliation. Since the Battle of Baijiangkou in the Tang Dynasty, China has been Japan's "cultural suzerainty", but the Sino-Japanese War subverted this primary and secondary relationship that has lasted for more than a thousand years, which is Chinese unacceptable; In addition, since the all-out War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression, Japan has frantically ravaged the land of China with the goal of "destroying the country and destroying the species", and has become the number one foreign enemy in the history of thousands of years of Chinese civilization... They are very afraid that after China's rise, they will use various means to retaliate and liquidate.
Although this idea is a bit "a gentleman's belly with a villain's heart", it is also in line with the national character of the Japanese people.
Second, fear of poverty. In the original order system in East Asia, the more developed China was, the more neighboring countries benefited. Because ancient China was a developed agricultural civilization, stability was above all else, as long as the wind and rain were smooth and there was no war, the hardworking Chinese could always create enough wealth and did not need to plunder abroad; Our "tributary system" also advocates "peaceful coexistence", which country comes to pay tribute, we feedback more money, essentially "spending money to buy stability". However, since Japan's complete westernization, the traditional order in East Asia has been subverted, and Japan believes in Western colonial plunder, and if it wants to develop, it must find some countries to suppress it.
In the eyes of the Japanese, a "rich but not strong" China is what they like the most, only then will they have enough raw material markets and consumer markets to develop the economy; Once China rises, Japan's development space will be compressed. Since the Sino-Japanese War, Japan's development has come at the expense of the interests of its neighbors, and it is difficult for them to get out of such a "successful experience." In Western logic, the stronger China is, the weaker Japan will be, which the Japanese cannot face.
Third, fear of punishment. After World War II, Japan was stationed by the United States, and shared a lot of "camp dividends" at the expense of sovereignty. Among them, it includes the huge orders of the Korean War and the Vietnam War; It also includes the period of confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union, when Japan took advantage of its geographical advantages to accept a large number of advanced industrial transfers from the Western camp; Of course, it also includes the relaxation of Sino-US relations, especially the huge consumer market released by the mainland after China's reopening... After the war, Japan relied on its geographical advantages to gain too many benefits from the "Western camp", and naturally had to bear the corresponding "gatekeeper" obligations.
Today, Japan's "obligation" is to keep an eye on China. In this case, playing up hostility towards China is undoubtedly a kind of "political correctness" in the sense of international relations.