Biden and Putin
On February 22, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin convened an expanded meeting of the Federal Security Council and made a strong decision to recognize the independence of the "Donetsk People's Republic" and the "Luhansk People's Republic", and the next day, signed an order to launch a "special military operation" against Ukraine.
According to the current information, Putin ordered the military to complete the task by March, but his plan failed, and the first wave of military offensive launched by Russia was forced to carry out the first "strategic contraction" due to the strong resistance of the Ukrainian side, withdrawing troops from the entire Ukrainian capital area and transferring troops to the Wudong Unan region.
The second phase of the war mainly revolves around the Wudong Unan region, in which the Russian army is also losing ground and forcibly pushing for a referendum in the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions under the conditions of strategic military disadvantage and completing its "legal process" to annex the four oblasts, trying to bring them under the "nuclear umbrella" to prevent the Ukrainian side from taking reconquest actions and deter Kiev's strategic support.
The third stage is after Russia's military and nuclear threat means have failed, and it is forced to continue to shrink the front and withdraw from most or part of the Ukrainian territory it occupies on a large scale, especially the anti-Russian alliance to aid Ukraine with France, Britain, the United States and Germany as an example, promised and implemented the provision of offensive main battle tanks and infantry fighting vehicles for Ukraine, which is expected to further and substantially change the situation of the Russian-Ukrainian war and "ensure" to help Ukraine win Russia.
Following French President Emmanuel Macron's announcement earlier this month about the supply of AMX-10 RC main battle tanks to Ukraine, British Prime Minister Sunak's office issued a statement on January 14 that 14 Challenger-2 tanks and about 30 AS90 self-propelled guns requiring five gunners will be delivered to Ukraine in the coming weeks. The British side will provide the necessary training for the Ukrainian army.
At the same time, with a strong push from the Polish side, Germany agreed to the transfer of the "Leopard" tank company to Ukraine, and even Germany itself supplied Ukraine with this equipment, and as the situation develops, it seems that it will be a matter of time. And before that, virtue had already agreed to lose the Ukrainian anti-tank nemesis "Bradley" and "Weasel" tanks.
The nature of the new equipment provided by the United States, Germany, France and Britain for Ukraine is of great significance to this war, and if the highest authorities of the United States and Germany are still trying to play the sidelines, then France and Britain, the core members of the Western world, have clearly sent out "signal flares": in order to help Ukraine win the war, they are ready and determined to supply it with "offensive" - not "defensive" - military equipment that the West has repeatedly emphasized since the beginning of the war.
This step by France, Britain and the United States and Germany clearly breaks a certain "tacit understanding" formed between Russia and Ukraine and the West since Russia's war against Ukraine: the West does not provide offensive weapons for Ukraine - only "defensive" weapons, as a "bottom line" condition for Russia and the West not to enter into a direct war.
In fact, France, Britain, the United States and Germany chose to take measures to "kill two birds with one stone" against the background of the increasingly unfavorable situation of the Russian-Ukrainian war:
First, providing Ukraine with more powerful weapons and equipment under the condition of the shrinking balance of power between Russia and Ukraine can greatly enhance Kiev's strength and promote the war situation to continue to develop in the direction favorable to Ukraine.
The second is to further "provoke" the Kremlin, touch Putin's bottom line, and force Russia, which is in an increasingly deteriorating situation, to make a choice under the condition that the West clearly provides Ukraine with offensive weapons and breaks through the "red line" of war: whether to "honor" its previous threats and escalate the Russian-Ukrainian war into a war between Russia and Ukraine and their Western allies and partners, or to "admit it", knock down the teeth, acquiesce to the status quo, and continue to "entangle" with Ukraine, but never mention the matter of direct war with the West.
In addition to continuing its ground operations and launching air and missile strikes against Ukraine, Russia has not mentioned that the West has broken the "tacit understanding" between the two sides, which is equivalent to taking the initiative to abandon the traditional "threat" of escalating and expanding the war under the pretext of Western attacks.
It is clear from this that the actual situation of this war is by no means still favorable to Russia, as highlighted by high-ranking officials and dignitaries in Moscow, or that Western sanctions are insignificant.
On the other hand, the dynamics of the Russian-Ukrainian war, especially the West's efforts to provide offensive equipment to Ukraine, highlight the "success" of the strategy of the United States and its allies and partners in supporting Ukraine's counterattack against Russia.
"Boiling frogs in warm water" can describe its overall situation of aid to Ukraine and containment of Russia.
Before the war, the Zelensky authorities in Ukraine "begged" for peace, trying to urge the West through diplomatic means to strengthen pressure to stop Russian aggression against Ukraine, and for this reason they were ready to negotiate at any time. Indeed, Washington, as the most soberly aware of Russia's intentions, has taken relevant actions to this end, including agreeing to dialogue with the Kremlin at all levels – including Russian-American, Russia-NATO, and Russia-OSCE — on strategic security concerns with Russia, as well as direct official diplomatic dialogue with Moscow on the topic of the Russian-Ukrainian war.
But this did not work, and after February 24, Russian troops entered Ukraine simultaneously in several directions.
At the beginning of the war, despite the great success of the "defense of Kiev", the Zelensky authorities obviously had no chance of winning the repulsion of the Russian army, so they still put peace negotiations in an important position, and negotiations on various ways and means were carried out one after another, and even the two sides reached the Istanbul consensus and preliminary agreements.
As the war gradually and clearly showed a situation unfavorable to Russia, forcing Russia to carry out the first strategic contraction, under the pretext of releasing goodwill, taking the initiative to fully withdraw from the Ukrainian capital theater, the Russian-Ukrainian war entered the second phase, the Ukrainian side strengthened its will to resist Russia to the end, and the anti-Russian alliance also saw the possibility of the war situation developing in a different direction than it estimated, thereby enhancing the strategic confidence in Ukrainian aid and support, and began to launch a plan to assist Ukraine and contain Russia from a long-term and strategic perspective.
After the progress of the war in recent months, especially the smooth implementation of Ukraine's strategic counteroffensive plan, including Russia's swallowing of many threats, the United States and its allies have become convinced that the war must evolve in the direction of Russia's defeat and that Ukraine can win a strategic victory.
Based on this, Washington's aid to Ukraine from the current to long-term development, the EU has also approved a financial aid plan of tens of billions of euros a year to Ukraine, and militarily breaks the taboo, from the marginal supply of offensive and defensive weapons for Ukraine, directly transitioning to offensive main battle equipment, for the Kremlin, it is a dilemma: accepting the recruitment, will only accelerate failure; If they do not answer, they will highlight their introspection and break through the last layer of self-esteem of the Kremlin, exposing their own weakness to the public.
The new actions of France, Britain, the United States and Germany meant the end of the second phase of the war and the beginning of the third phase. And the "big play" at this stage will be the spring campaign that Ukraine has long publicly "flaunted" - the planned simultaneous military offensive on the Donbass and Crimea regions. The campaign is a crucial step in Ukraine's strategic initiative and deliberate attempt to offend the Kremlin's sensitive offensive against Crimea, which it considers inviolable, and to accelerate the decisive moment of the war.
The Russian-Ukrainian war has caused hundreds of thousands of casualties on both sides, millions of Ukrainian people have been displaced and hundreds of thousands of Russian families have been dashed, and the economic and social problems of the two countries have suffered a long-term huge loss, and it is time to follow the call of life, end the bloody battle, and end it for the benefit of the people.