God helps the self-helpers, and the users win the world!
Author: Yu Zhaoye
Editor: Mengyang
Wind product: Blue Ocean Shen He
Source: Rhodium Finance - Rhodium Finance Research Institute
2022 is an unusual year for new energy vehicle companies.
According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the annual sales volume of automobiles in mainland China was 26.864 million units, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%; New energy vehicles showed explosive growth, with sales exceeding 6.8 million units, a year-on-year increase of 93.4%, and the market share increased to 25.6%, gradually entering a period of comprehensive market-oriented expansion.
While the track is noisy, there is no lack of shuffling and changing cards.
Tesla's stock price plummeted, making Musk the "first person in history to shrink his net worth by $200 billion"; Wei Xiaoli delivered the new model, Leap Hong Kong stock was listed, the sales of Nezha, which had been marginalized, sprang up, and the former four tigers and the Weima, who was complained of being a "dangerous horse", wanted to fight for his life through the shell; Huawei builds high-profile cars in the name of Qianjie and Avita, BYD surpasses Tesla to win the sales championship, traditional car companies such as Great Wall, Geely, Changan, and GAC seem to have negotiated well, and the new energy and transformation intensity are unprecedented...
In terms of trends, driven by the 3060 dual carbon goal, it is a general trend for new energy vehicles to enter the home market of the industry. On the other hand, with the withdrawal of financial subsidies in 2023, the industry can no longer grow wildly, and the false prosperity of overdrafts in previous sales is coming to an end. In the hand-to-hand combat of real knives and guns, the logical transformation of market-driven and core strength competition is taking place.
Obviously, as a "surviving" outlet track in recent years, there is no shortage of topics for new energy vehicles. Looking back on 2022 in the big waves, what are the key hot words?
01
Soul variables
Intelligent golden period sharpening
LAOCAI
Intelligent upgrade, have to be mentioned.
Huachuang Securities has predicted that the automotive industry is undergoing electrification and intelligent transformation. In 2021, the global penetration rate of new energy vehicles will be 8.4%, similar to the penetration rate of smart phones in 2006, and the product form will gradually develop from the mechanical age and the electronic era to the intelligent era, which is expected to open a golden decade.
In 2022, the golden cycle is really here.
Take Sanjie Wei Xiaoli as an example, you can get a glimpse of the direction of intelligent tide.
As a loyal fan of intelligence, in September 2022, Xpeng launched the new G9, which is based on the X-EEA 3.0 electronic and electrical architecture;
After NIO switched to the NT2.0 platform in the new car, the level of intelligence has also been supplemented, equipped with an ADAM computing platform supported by 4 NVIDIA Orin X chips, and an AUILA super sensing system that includes 33 high-performance perception hardware such as lidar and 8 million pixel cameras.
The ideal intelligent driving ability can be called a self-transformation. The computing platform has all been upgraded to large computing power chips, and lidar has been introduced...
Of course, while the tacit agreement escalated, the smoke never stopped. In the clear, car companies have featured sharpening knives; In the shadows, the cross-border ecological empowerment waiting for the opportunity is intended to bring systemic subversion.
For example, the running entry of technology giant Huawei injects new "soul" variables into the track.
Under the concept of "not building cars" repeatedly emphasized by Ren Zhengfei, what can Huawei do?
Yu Chengdong, CEO of Huawei Intelligent Vehicle Solution BU, said bluntly: "In the entire new energy track, Huawei cannot do everything, we are doing what Huawei is good at, especially intelligence is the unique value that Huawei can bring." ”
How unique is it?
Taking AITO's intelligent system equipped with Huawei's intelligent system as an example, Huawei is responsible for the full-stack intelligent solution at the product design level, providing partners with a full set of intelligent components such as intelligent driving, intelligent cockpit, intelligent electric vehicle, intelligent networking, intelligent vehicle cloud, and sensor + integrated thermal management system.
At the same time, Huawei also sent industrial design teams and software teams to deeply participate in development. In terms of industry chain and quality management, Huawei intervenes in total quality control. In terms of services, Huawei uses its own energy network system to cover the AITO charging network in more than 300 cities across the country.
With the blessing of the system ecosystem, AITO launched the industry's first model to realize intelligent interconnection in all scenarios, completing the last link of mobility.
Not only Cialis, but also Chery Automobile, Jianghuai Automobile, and Beiqi Extreme Fox are also "guests" of Huawei's cooperation. With intelligent "soul" weapons, Huawei has expanded its territory and its circle of friends has become increasingly full, and its status in rivers and lakes cannot be underestimated.
Another example is the Xiaomi Group, which entered the high-profile market and announced the manufacture of cars in 2021, Lei Jun shouted the slogan "Xiaomi autonomous driving will enter the first camp of the industry in 2024".
To make up for the shortcomings of the post, "Goldfinger" is also intelligent. It is reported that Xiaomi chooses self-research as the mainstay, supplemented by investment; The first phase of R&D expenses in the field of autonomous driving has invested 3.3 billion yuan, and a R&D team of more than 500 people has been established, which is expected to exceed 600 by the end of 2022, and the full-stack algorithms will be self-developed.
Can the Huawei myth be replicated?
Look at Xiaomi's strong ecological chain, there are expectations; Look at the high-end innovation shortcomings of Xiaomi phones, there are challenges.
What is certain is that the Red Sea fight, technology upgrading, and intelligent evolution have become the main cards for new and old practitioners to compete for ranking in the second half, and even a necessary killing trick for overtaking on corners.
02
Accelerated differentiation
Changes in sales volume and performance
LAOCAI
As a result, the rapid differentiation of head forces is another point of interest in the new energy rivers and lakes in 2022.
In 2021, Xpeng topped the list with annual sales of 98,000 units, followed by NIO and Lili, with cumulative annual sales of 91,000 and 90,000 units, respectively.
In 2022, the second echelon of new forces will rise strongly and reorganize the ranking of rivers and lakes. For example, the "little-known" Nezha car topped the annual sales with 152,100 units, followed by 133,200 and 122,500 units for the second and third Li and NIO respectively. Xpeng Motors and Leap Motors ranked fourth and fifth with 120,800 and 111,200 units.
Where is the logic of counterattack?
The answer is, lower prices. The price of Nezha V series is less than 100,000 yuan, and the price range of Nezha U series is about 100,000-150,000 yuan, which naturally has a great advantage in price for volume, but it also makes the sales crown a little discounted.
Not all brands are as lucky as Nezha. For example, WM, 2022 can be called a year of complete abandonment, as the top four of the former new forces, it only sold about 30,000 vehicles throughout the year. The listing blood transfusion has repeatedly jammed, so that the outside world has no lack of worry, but the backdoor listing news at the beginning of 2023 has made all parties cheered, can they finally achieve their long-cherished wishes, is it extremely Tai Lai?
In contrast, Leap Auto crossed the line of life and death in the chaotic battle and successfully landed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in September 2022. It's just that the stock price is sluggish and continues to break, which also means that the self-proof of value is still on the way.
The former king Wei Xiaoli still maintains a certain "decency", but the "unfinished" sales target and the sudden increase in losses also reflect the divergence of the track into deep water.
NIO's sales target of 150,000 units in 2022 is already relatively low-key, with a final completion rate of about 82%. Li Auto's target of 170,000 units, with an annual sales completion rate of 78%; Xpeng Motors, which has ensured annual sales of 250,000 vehicles and hit 300,000 vehicles, is confident enough, but the completion rate is the worst, only 48%.
In the first three times of 2022, NIO's revenue was 33.205 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.56%; The net loss was 8.651 billion yuan, an increase of 4.3 times year-on-year; Xpeng's revenue was 21.715 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 74.67%; net loss of 6.778 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 89.54%; The ideal revenue was 27.637 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 68.63%, and the net loss attributable to the parent company was 2.269 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 267.79%.
What is "contrary" is that 2022 can be called the year of Wei Xiaoli's "satellite", and there is no shortage of star new products.
The three new models of NIO's NT2.0 platform, ET7, ET5 and ES7, were launched, and President Qin Lihong said that the sales of ET5 will surpass that of BMW 3 Series within one year;
Xpeng's new car G9 pulls the price of Xpeng to more than 350,000 yuan, and He Xiaopeng claims that the G9 is "the best SUV within 500,000 yuan";
Ideal Auto can be called a new opening and hanging and matryoshka tactic, and released a series of new cars from L9, L8 to L6. Li Xiang said that the ideal L9 is the best family SUV within 5 million, even if it is compared with Cullinan;
……
Product upgrades, no need to talk about it. But it is not enough to have tone and confidence, combined with the above sales and performance, the three musketeers are still in a competitive moment when the old and new alternate, expansion and attack.
For example, Xpeng Motors. Due to the complexity of the price configuration of the new G9, which has attracted a wave of leek cutting, companies have to reduce prices and readjust pricing soon after the new car is launched.
In addition to the price, at the end of 2022, Xpeng and Li Auto have initiated the adjustment of the organizational structure of their enterprises, and NIO is also considering seeking changes in preparation for the next reshuffle competition.
The battlefield pattern is far from being set. In 2022, sales of Nezha Automobile were the champion, with sales of 7,795 units at the end of December of the year, down more than 48% month-on-month. Is the low price strategy ineffective?
Look at the subsidy ebb tide, a round of price increases by many manufacturers in recent days, Tesla's price reduction again, dimensionality reduction blow, differentiation or intensification.
Zhang Xiuyang, Secretary-General of China Passenger Vehicle Industry Alliance, believes that more than 100 new energy vehicles will be listed in China in 2023, the intensity of market competition will exceed the past, and the pattern and seat of new forces will usher in several rounds of impact and change.
03
Self-awareness
Can traditional car companies come to the top?
LAOCAI
The rivers and lakes are undecided, and the dark horse is unpredictable.
An interesting phenomenon is that in the wave of new brands in 2022, most of them come from the self-awakening and self-revolution of traditional car companies.
Joint ventures and multinational brands are betting heavily. FAW Audi's pure electric flagship sports car RS e-tron GT was launched, with a market guidance price of 1,468,800 yuan; Mercedes-Benz's new pure electric EQE claims to lead electric luxury, with a manufacturer's guidance price of 351,800 yuan to 423,700 yuan...
Traditional independent car companies such as Dongfeng, Changan, BAIC, Geely, and Great Wall have launched new high-end brands such as Lantu, Avita, Extreme Fox, Extreme Krypton and Salon, and the growth rate is eye-catching. For example, Extreme Krypton and Lantu achieved year-on-year increases of 1098% and 186% respectively, becoming an example of the transformation of traditional car companies.
How is it done?
In March 2021, Zeekr came out, and the first product 001 model was released the following month, positioning it as a pure electric medium and large hunting vehicle, which was the first in the electric field at that time. Dislocation competition, let Extreme Krypton quickly out of the circle.
In addition to characteristics, the quality-price ratio is also a great weapon to conquer consumers. The size of the 001 body is large enough, and the material and configuration are thick. In terms of the same configuration lineup, it is cost-effective and the driving control performance is also good. All kinds of convergence have led to a surge in sales in the second half of 2022, with sales exceeding 10,000 in October and November.
Another fierce general, GAC AION, was the first monthly sales champion in December, with sales exceeding the 30,000 mark.
Of course, look at the lack of growth of fuel vehicles and the strong distribution of new energy, and it is not possible to make efforts. However, it remains to be seen how much can be divided and how much the odds are.
Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Passenger Association, said that the traditional high-end brands in the current market are mainly in the field of fuel vehicles. Although multinational brands have a century-old brand accumulation and foundation, their advantages in the new energy market are not obvious, and a series of high-end new energy and intelligent products of independent brands are more favored by the market.
It is not a false statement, although the situation has been opened from 0 to 1, the competition in the Red Sea is still hot, and sailing against the water means that the back waves are not waiting for time to catch up, just like cooking small fresh food. In the face of more stringent market tests, there is not much room for trial and error.
Compared with the phased Xiaocheng, BYD, which has fully decided to transform, is already several stages ahead: it will sell about 1.8635 million new energy vehicles in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 208.64%. Among them, the sales of pure electric passenger cars and plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles in 2022 were 911,100 units and 946,200 units, respectively. It is not only a small number of car companies that have exceeded their annual sales targets, but also surpassed Tesla to become the top seller.
Among traditional car companies, can the next "BYD" run? Can the whole come later?
Look at the decisiveness of transformation, the matching basis of strength, and the foresight and accuracy of market vision. The self-awakening and self-revolution of traditional car companies, and catching up with the waves are in progress.
04
Take the initiative
Lack of cores, lack of electricity, delayed delivery
LAOCAI
Not demanding. Take a closer look at this rushing tide and rising trend, as well as the dangerous reefs and rapids whirlpools.
For example, the bottleneck keyword - "lack of core and less electricity".
2022 is also a year full of uncertainty. Under the influence of repeated epidemics, chip shortages, rising prices of power battery raw materials, and other factors, most car companies are trapped in manufacturing, which in turn affects the delivery cycle.
In the words of Zhu Huarong, chairman of Changan Automobile, "Delivery issues have become the primary issue restricting the company's current development. ”
Not a boast. At the third quarter of 2022 earnings results communication meeting, Changan Automobile said that due to repeated epidemics, high temperature power cuts, and the shortage of supplier materials, the company lost a total of 581,000 vehicles from January to September.
It is difficult for a clever woman to cook without rice. The various constraints in the production process have pulled a lot of hindrance in the sales charge of the new forces. Delayed delivery has become a new hot spot for complaints.
According to the vehicle quality network, from January to December 10, 2022, the cumulative number of complaints about the TOP 50 new energy vehicles on the vehicle quality network was as high as 8,477, nearly 30% more than last year, and the overall quality performance of the new energy automobile industry was not as good as last year.
Looking at the enterprise cells, Changan Automobile is not the only one who suffers from the supply chain.
Xi Zhongmin, Deputy General Manager of GAC AION New Energy Vehicles, said: "In 2022, the sales of new energy vehicles will reach more than 6 million units, but the company is still not profitable, mainly due to the high cost of raw materials. ”
Specifically, the price of lithium carbonate once rose from 50,000 yuan / ton to 600,000 yuan / ton, the chip shortage caused the chip price to rise by 10% to 40%, and there are other factors caused by the supply shortage problem, the challenge is indeed not small.
Another example is Wei Xiaoli's sales volume has not reached the target, a major reason is in the supply chain.
It's just, in addition to complaining and sighing, how much do you know about your own shortcomings?
Taking "Wei Xiaoli" as an example, in addition to the self-research of the operating system and related software, most of the core components rely on the external supply chain, so that some public opinion believes that "Wei Xiaoli" is only in the "car" stage.
To enhance anti-fragility capabilities, we still need "strong" solutions.
At the World Power Battery Conference, Zeng Qinghong, chairman of GAC Group, said, "The cost of power batteries is too high, we are all working for the Ningde era", and shouted the slogan, GAC to build its own batteries.
More than that, a month later, GAC passed two board resolutions: invest 10.9 billion yuan in the research and development of independent batteries; It agreed to participate in the construction of a production base in Guangzhou Juwan, with a total investment of 3.69 billion yuan.
Liu Junqun, an industry analyst, said that the value lies in the strategic vision. Only by strangling the upstream throat and consolidating the foundation of the industrial chain can new energy vehicle companies live better and get closer to the inflection point.
BYD, which announced the discontinuation of fuel vehicles, is a living sample. BYD, which is determined to fully embrace new energy, has equipped a highly flexible production line that can meet the production of pure electric vehicles, hybrid vehicles and traditional fuel vehicles, which is also one of the important drivers of the company's new energy vehicles "from 2 million to 3 million" in only half a year.
Another example is NIO, which plans to invest in Greenwing Resources Ltd (hereinafter referred to as "Greenwing"), an ore mining company headquartered in Australia, with a total amount of up to 600 million yuan;
Jia Xinguang, executive director of the China Automobile Dealers Association, hit the nail on the head in his analysis: "BYD has blade battery technology, and Tesla has launched the 4680 electrodeless ear battery, which is the core technology." In the face of supply chain constraints, new domestic forces need to come up with disruptive innovation and put the initiative in their own hands. ”
That's right, the iron still needs to be hard by itself. If you want to overtake in corners and C position on the track, the home battle is inseparable from the basic skills.
In addition to the hustle and bustle of the market, the "cold bench" that consolidates the foundation plate should sit more.
05
Scale effect competition
Those who sit on the cold bench and win the user win the world
LAOCAI
Of course, the ultimate power is still chasing the scale effect.
Look at the king BYD, in 2022, not only sales will be crushed, but also the ecological synergy of the battery industry and the overall scale effect will achieve scarce profits.
Everyone wants to live as BYD.
For example, at the 2022 third quarter report call, NIO proposed to achieve full-year profitability in 2024;
However, in the third quarter, NIO's net loss was 4.1108 billion yuan, a year-on-year surge of 392.1%. Is it easy?
Cheng Xiqi, chief analyst of the automotive industry at CSC, said: "Pure electric models with sales prices of 300,000 yuan, 250,000 yuan, 200,000 yuan and 150,000 yuan need to increase sales by 19.6%, 21%, 27.9% and 41% respectively to reach the break-even point. ”
In short, economies of scale are a key break-even break-even point.
Just in December 2022, CATL reached a cooperation with Huawei, and Denza Auto reached a cooperation with Tencent SSV. When batteries and software, car companies and Internet companies join forces, is the catfish effect still far away?
Allow time to answer.
What is certain is that the new energy vehicle industry does not lack fresh blood, injecting vitality and tension, but also increasing the difficulty of profitability.
In short, the market calls for real scale effects: speed volume is only face, the corresponding refined operation, professional precipitation, characteristic breakthrough is the inside, only the integration of quality and efficiency can truly improve profitability, on the contrary, it may fall into the scale trap, fall into the more sold the loss, large but not strong.
The good news is that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China is approaching 30%, and the new forces of car manufacturing have also achieved the evolution from birth crawling to standing running. Electrification, intelligence, networking, and sharing of first-issued card slots and continuous storage are expected to allow them to enjoy more market dividends.
According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, sales of new energy vehicles are expected to reach 9 million units in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 35%; Guosheng Securities also predicts that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will reach 40% in 2023.
However, the real dividends are still a minority.
At least the short-term challenge is already in sight. Guotai Junan Research Report predicts that there will be large fluctuations in passenger car sales in the first quarter of 2023, and the pressure on sales throughout the year has been fully reflected by the capital market.
Obviously, the withdrawal of national subsidies will bring deeper subversive effects and good currency effects. More market-oriented ranking competition, raising the threshold of scale effect, practitioners should not be neglected.
How to deal with it?
God helps the self-helpers, and the users win the world! Time will give everything the accumulator who is willing to sit on the "cold bench" wants.
This article is the original of Rhodium Cai