A few days ago, according to the survey data of overseas professional institutions, up to now, the global share of the Harmony system is 2%, while Android occupies 81% of the share, and iOS is 18%. This data has sparked a lot of discussion and controversy.
According to these latest data and domestic growth expectations for Hongmeng, Hongmeng has made progress at present, but it is not optimistic.
In China, for Hongmeng's 2% market share achievement, industry insiders believe that the data may be different from the reality, and it is likely that only the share of mobile phones is calculated, and the Internet of Things devices are not included. Many voices are still mainly praised, such as "foreign media miscalculated", "white blockade", Hongmeng has the ability that Android and Apple iOS do not have, that is, the ability to connect everything and so on. But this is actually a kind of self-hi.
Huawei, as a latecomer, is not easy to achieve 2% market share under sanctions, but how to break through from 2% to 16% or even 20% of the market share, Hongmeng faces a number of practical problems.
The first is that Harmony is the question of Android shells, which is an obstacle at the level of brand awareness
From today's point of view, the question of whether Hongmeng is an Android case has not stopped. At the 2022 China (Shenzhen) Integrated Circuit Summit held at the end of December last year, Wang Chenglu said that the Harmony system is not Android, iOS, nor a single-device operating system, it has three important technical features, namely unified OS and flexible deployment; Hardware mutual assistance, resource sharing; One-time development, multi-terminal deployment. He also said that "in the field of system software, Hongmeng is the only one in China that leads all operating systems in the world in terms of technical architecture".
However, the industry's doubts about Harmony OS are Harmony OS, a commercial closed-source distribution developed by Huawei based on Open Harmony, and the difference with Open Harmony is that part of the AOSP code is used to build the Android application compatibility layer.
In the eyes of many people, it is still based on AOSP, and MIUI, Flyme, including Huawei's EMUI, there is essentially no difference. This is similar to the operation of AliyunOS many years ago, especially in some versions of Hongmeng there are Android Easter eggs, such as Android-specific incompatibilities.
In fact, Android and the Android Open Source Project (AOSP) are two different things, the code of the open source community is originally shared by everyone, and it is not Google's own, but from the world's excellent developers contributed, anyone can develop on this basis, because the Linux kernel open source protocol requires the use of their part to be open source, these Google is not owned, available globally, Google has no authority to suppress. There are also many large companies in China that have open sourced some of their own technical frameworks, and some people abroad have used them.
The Harmony system itself is also trying to delete the corresponding AOSP code, after all, the current Android is bloated. In addition, the Android system uses a "macro" kernel, while the Harmony system uses a "micro" kernel, that is, only provides the most basic core functions and basic services of the operating system, such as multi-process scheduling and multi-process communication, which has security features and low latency. This is also the most fundamental difference between them.
Of course, the controversy about whether Hongmeng is an Android case, in a short period of time, no one can convince anyone. In the end, in fact, Hongmeng is not strong enough. In this regard, on the one hand, Hongmeng needs to have a clearer response and statement to the doubts of the outside world, continue to explain the latest progress to the outside world, and on the other hand, it needs to strengthen itself.
Domestic mobile phone manufacturers do not support and lack a large-scale, geometric growth engine
According to Hongmeng data, in 2022, Huawei devices equipped with HarmonyOS have reached 320 million, Hongmeng Zhilian has more than 2,200 partners, product shipments have exceeded 250 million, and Hongmeng ecological developers have exceeded 2 million, especially a large number of home appliance brands including Midea, Gree, Fangtai, Jiuyang, Shuaikang, Subor and so on have joined, and Alipay has also joined Hongmeng.
But the reality still has a helpless side, now Hongmeng released 4 years, but so far no domestic mobile phone manufacturers have clearly stated that they will use the Hongmeng system. Mobile phones are a key part of the scale and influence growth of operating systems.
In the past, the growth of Android, relying on the support of Samsung and HTC two large manufacturers, these two manufacturers in the early stage of the smartphone huge shipments quickly pushed up the market share of Android, with the collective addition of domestic mobile phones, Android a single trend soon formed, at that time BlackBerry, Linux, MeeGo, Windows mobile, Windows phone do not have the support of mobile phone manufacturers, the early cold start is difficult, quickly marginalized.
Apple's iOS growth also stems from its closed operating system, the iPhone itself has a large and stable shipment support, self-contained, iPhone shipments continue to accumulate users every year, but also completely support the user volume of iOS.
Without the support of mobile phone manufacturers, Hongmeng, as an open operating system, lacks a large-scale and geometric growth driving engine.
There are deep practical reasons for this.
First of all, from the perspective of the survival of Xiaomi OV and other large manufacturers, they have their own customized systems, OPPO has its own ColorOS, vivo has Funtouch OS, Xiaomi has MIUI, Meizu has Flyme, they all have their own IoT strategic layout and software service revenue business, more inclined to take the initiative in their own hands.
Huawei and other manufacturers are in competition, Hongmeng and Huawei's brand correlation is too strong, mobile phone manufacturers joining, may also worry about losing their brand impression and unique style.
From the self-supporting portal (which has its own Android customization system, which is completely out of Google's control in the domestic market, and can achieve the integration of software and hardware revenue) to the fence, it is also completely suppressed at the level of brand premium, and they are also worried about losing the autonomy of the underlying system.
Mobile phone manufacturers are more worried about the sanctions in overseas markets, overseas Android mobile phones use Google's unified Andorid original system, its mobile phone common software and games are run on Google's GMS service framework and application store, and equipped with the Harmony system will not be able to obtain Google's GMS authorization, Android smartphones without Google GMS services in overseas markets are basically equivalent to feature phones.
Therefore, from the perspective of various interest factors, in the next 3~5 years, it is not ruled out that there are small mobile phone manufacturers willing to join Hongmeng, but it is basically difficult to see the possibility of mainstream mobile phone manufacturers joining Hongmeng.
Hongmeng's market share is broken, and the growth of Huawei mobile phones is very critical
As mentioned earlier, Hongmeng is an Internet of Things operating system, which has been extended to home appliances, smart homes, automobiles and other fields, but mobile phones are the key entrance and equipment in the Internet of Things era, and if an operating system, in the era of the Internet of Everything, is lacking in the key hardware device of the mobile phone, it is actually difficult to support its influence and large-scale growth.
Therefore, in the final analysis, it is very difficult for Huawei to persuade other mobile phone manufacturers to join, and there are still certain limitations in relying more on home appliance manufacturers. For Huawei, the difficulty lies in the overseas market, where it is necessary to persuade a large number of home appliance manufacturers to join Hongmeng like in China, and there are problems in culture, brand recognition and marketing.
Because Hongmeng is from Huawei, it has a certain influence in China, but its brand recognition abroad is very limited, from the current point of view, Hongmeng's layout focus is still in the domestic market.
Therefore, the key to Hongmeng's market share breakthrough is actually to need its own mobile phone equipment shipments to support, take the Apple route, Huawei mobile phones and the growth of Hongmeng system is complementary, if the volume, influence and product scale of Huawei mobile phones do not rise, Hongmeng's influence and user scale may also be limited.
Canalys recently released the 2022 annual research report on China's mobile phone market, which shows that the total sales of mobile phones in China in 2022 will reach 273 million, and the top five are Apple, Xiaomi, OPPO, Honor, and vivo, and Huawei is not among the top five.
From the current point of view, the key to the development and growth of Hongmeng depends on the future growth and recovery of Huawei mobile phones, and the current situation is not optimistic for the time being.
Breaking the game in overseas markets is very difficult, but it is very critical
In fact, although the current view is that Harmony is the Internet of Things operating system, it is focused on the era of the Internet of Everything. Android and Apple are more mobile phone operating systems, but in fact, this is a cognitive misunderstanding.
Android and iOS can also be upgraded to adapt to the era of Internet of Everything, and from the current layout of Google and Apple, Google's layout based on the Internet of Things operating system has been laid out as early as the 2019 I/O developer conference, and the Fuchsia development team recently submitted a report on allowing the use of Android's ADB tools to manage Fuchsia devices, reducing the time and technical cost of migrating software to the new system.
Apple family bucket through the seamless connection of the iOS ecosystem, can make their own products interconnection and sharing, get a smooth cross-screen experience, from the Apple WWDC 22 point of view, Apple is further integrating iOS, macOS, watchOS and tvOS four major systems, and accelerate the promotion of the Homekit platform, release HomeKit-based application Home, can directly control home smart home devices, Many home accessories manufacturers have announced support for HomeKit.
In addition, Apple has already laid out the AR operating system, which itself is also a key development direction in the era of the Internet of Things. According to the latest news, the first version of the realityOS system running on Apple's mixed reality headset is undergoing internal finishing work, and new employees related to the device are increasing, or will be released early next year. In addition to the operating system, Apple's AR headset hardware products have also entered a critical stage.
The era of the Internet of Everything is the next stage of the Internet, which should connect as many life hardware devices or Internet of Things industrial equipment as possible, in summary, this direction, whether Apple or Google are advancing, and Apple Google in the global market influence, resources and market share is much stronger.
Especially the overseas market, in fact, is a market dominated by Microsoft, Google, Apple and other giants, they have greater appeal and stronger brand recognition, to grab food from these overseas giants, compared with the advantages and disadvantages of the system experience, the friendliness to developers, the scale and speed of ecological establishment and brand influence, but because of the existence of sanctions factors, Hongmeng is very difficult to break through.
Huawei has also released the international version of P50Pro and P50 Pocket for overseas markets, but due to the limitation of 5G chips and the licensing of Google's GMS services, Huawei mobile phones are difficult to break overseas and the growth of operating systems overseas is not optimistic.
In general, Hongmeng's current market share is 2%, and if it survives, there is hope, but it is not yet the time to be optimistic.
How to make a qualitative breakthrough from the market share, to have the support of large manufacturers, is also closely related to the growth of Huawei mobile phones, and how Hongmeng expands its brand influence and technical strength to overseas markets, is also a key link, after all, the expansion of the operating system, has always been to look at the global market, seek to continue to cultivate in the global market, obtain living space, it is possible to be truly powerful.
Epilogue:
In general, Hongmeng's market share is 2%, but it is not yet optimistic, from the perspective of market share, 16% of the market share is the life and death line of the operating system, because the operating system is a stronger market, and it is easy to form the Matthew effect, once the first mover forms a scale effect, it is snowballing bigger and bigger.
According to the forecast of Strategy Analytics, by 2027, the share of the Hongmeng system will become 0, and for this prediction, the agency is likely to be based on the Matthew effect of the operating system, for this prediction, we should not laugh, for Hongmeng, perhaps there should be enough attention and vigilance, and think about ways to break the situation.
How to overcome these practical difficulties determines whether it can successfully become an operating system that affects the world, and based on Huawei's strength and determination, we still have expectations for it.
Author: Wang Xinxi TMT Senior Reviewer This article is not reprinted without permission