Image source: @VisualChina
Text | OM Institute for Going to Sea
In 2022, many people are about to forget that there were always many "highlight moments" in the game industry.
This year, there have been many adjustments, the version number has changed from "unbanning" to "standardized", the talent war has changed from "endless stream" to "door court snub", the meta-universe from "wind outlet" to "tiger mouth", many manufacturers are facing the "food shortage" crisis, and the capital market seems to have stepped on the "sharp brake"... Everyone began to disbelieve in the "myth" created by "Genshin", and some people attributed those highlight moments to the dividends of the "home economy"; Some people have begun to re-examine their products and strategies; Others gritted their teeth and survived until the moment when the data picked up.
Hesitation, waiting, persistence, is the state of most people, and 2022 seems to have undergone a lot of adjustments. Adjustment is not only a phenomenon, but also the mood of everyone. With this in mind, the time has entered 2023. Fortunately, the geese are not without traces, and from the practice of going to sea and market data in the past year, we find that the seemingly calm sea has actually undersurged with dark tides. If 2022 is a "year of adjustment", then 2023 is likely to be an important year for the transition from shallow to deep water, and going to sea will enter a deeper level of competition.
This article will look forward to the game going to sea in 2023 from the three sections of "Deep Sea", "Group Portrait" and "Breaking the Circle".
01 Deep sea
Before 2022, the competition of games going overseas is reflected in localization, gameplay integration, micro-innovation, and hybrid monetization. A game, if you can do a few of these points to the extreme, is not far from success. However, these requirements, which used to be very hard for products to meet, may become a basic threshold by 2023.
Industry product competition will only intensify. How intense is it? Some manufacturers are already increasing their efforts to incorporate overseas studios, and many overseas manufacturers choose to jointly develop with Chinese manufacturers. If the past was only "involution", then in the new year, there is a trend of turning to "out-roll", and under the fierce competition, more developers will face a "quality war".
One said, "Gaming technology has changed to an incredible level lately. From "AI replacing art" to "buying the doom", various hot debates show that the competition for games to go overseas has been pushed higher. Expanding technology to improve the quality of the product itself will be a high-dimensional competition in 2023.
Secondly, although the state of "channel is king" may continue for a long time, many manufacturers have begun to establish an "internal circulation" system based on distribution, and "self-research and self-development" has become one of the competitiveness of many head CPs. Its significance is shared by the independent overseas consortium: "This characteristic of 'the speed of vendor binding CP is greater than the growth rate of CP', so that each manufacturer has begun to establish an internal circulation system based on distribution." By acting for distribution and R&D, on the one hand, we can solve the supply problem and tide over the difficulties; On the other hand, it can also play a role in reducing costs and increasing efficiency, and improving profits. "
Also, from the ultra-casual explosion in 2019, after "hybrid monetization" gradually became the mainstream design of commercialization in 2020~2021, in 2022, light products combined with "sub-game" finally brought a new consumption model of "buying volume + internal purchase". Overseas manufacturers use "sub-play" as a buying strategy to activate the UA side; At the same time, there are some casual products that gradually activate users and improve LTV by rhythmically adding "sub-gameplay".
Taking "sub-game buying" as an example, there is MiniGame combined with buying volume materials to lead sub-game explosive marketing; 【X-HERO】Update the dog head icon, RPG set off a line drawing dog head buying boom; Funplus stirs up new waves with "bullet" ideas...
Fourth, in the case of a decline in the number of global game manufacturers (1/5 of the people leaving, the three major manifestations of the inflection point of games going overseas), there are still small and medium-sized manufacturers in China going overseas to "fight the siege" and try to cultivate the vertical track without wavering, especially the overseas track that has been verified by many successful products.
In the twenty years of mobile games going to sea, the early ones that drew a strong mark were 4X SLG games, first the first "overseas to domestic sales" "COK (Clash of Kings)", which aroused the "COK-like" game to go to sea, and then successively "The Coast of the Land", "Age of Kingdoms", "Age of Muskets", "King of Avalon", "Last Shelter: Survival", "Game of Sultans", etc., in 2022, The sea track that thought that the explosive model withered away, but killed the animal-themed innovative SLG products "The Ants: Underground Kingdom" and "Wolf Game: The Wild Kingdom" (no explosion at sea this year? SLG's Zootopia), a testament to the value of deep ploughing into traditional tracks.
After understanding this, the fifth point is not difficult to understand: the products that make money in the market become more of those games that enter early and have a "long-term operation" space. For example, Yi World's long-term operation for more than three years [Please President] (Chinese version of "Merchant Master"), "accumulated 200 million registered players, won the most popular award of the Blackstone Award of the Hardcore Alliance for three consecutive years, and achieved good development through product localization, operation localization, marketing and other ways." ”
From the technology on the R&D side to the establishment of the internal circulation system, to the further development of commercial design, and finally to the insistence on deep cultivation of the track + long-term operation, all of the above are just some clues that the game will "step into the deep sea", but it means that the game competition in 2023 will no longer be "dragonfly water", and it is likely to become a full range of "big waves and sand".
02 Group portrait
Looking at a set of data, the DAU of the top 200 games around the world grew by only 1% for the whole year, and IAP shrank (-1%), in this case, there are still manufacturers to achieve rapid growth. Another set of data is that the average number of advertisers in the quarterly game advertising this year increased by 17.5% year-on-year, but the quarterly creative decreased by nearly 16% year-on-year; More than 90% of advertisers launch new creative every quarter, with an average increase of 3.82% over last year, and creatives are moving towards "less and better", and more advertisers are participating in this "less and better" competition.
The two sets of data show that although everyone has entered the quagmire of "tight hands", it is this sense of urgency for survival that forces everyone to "spend money on the blade", but stimulates unexpected growth.
So, where is the "blade"?
First, categories such as leisure, puzzle solving, Casino, simulation management, and 4X SLG that have a wide user base in themselves need high-quality products and have more room for long-term cultivation. It is not difficult to understand that in 2022, there will be many examples of veteran gameplay "turning red", such as "Survivor!", which renovates "casual rouguelikes" with "mowing" gameplay. io", and "The Ants" that used the "ant theme" to turn 4X SLG popular.
The data confirms this, casual advertisers in 2022 increased by 2.94% compared with 2021, while casual materials accounted for a total of 22.69%, an increase of 4.74% over last year, still ranking first; The comprehensive performance of puzzle games was second, with the proportion of advertisers second only to casual games, and advertising creatives increased by 0.59% year-on-year; Simulation and casino advertisers grew by about 0.9%, with creatives up nearly 1% year-over-year and the latter remaining almost the same as last year.
It can also be seen from the growth of game users in the United States, Indonesia, Vietnam and other countries that these types of games have maintained a certain degree of popularity. Today, it's extremely important to identify categories that still have a user base and are still growing.
Second, as dividends change from global to regional, and from long-term to band-based, "hot track" and "hot region" have become the two representative terms of "group portrait" in 2022:
1. Southeast Asia has a large DAU incremental dividend, and Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines and Malaysia have all achieved growth higher than the global average. Among them, the users of three categories, Indonesian simulation (↑14%), sports (↑46%), and puzzle (↑39%), grew rapidly; The revenue of desktop and sports internal purchases grew rapidly, increasing by 43% and 44% respectively.
2. Only Turkey's mobile game in-app revenue increased slightly by 1% globally, while other regions showed different levels of contraction. In Turkey, ARPU bucked the trend and grew by 3%, driving up IAP revenue. DAU growth of 10% or more in the puzzle (↑26%), music (↑18%), racing (↑13%), cards (↑12%), and sports (↑10%) categories; The two categories of adventure and casino achieved more than 100% revenue increase, and games such as [Pokémon GO] (adventure), [Roblox] (adventure), [Jackpot Magic Slots] (casino), [Big Fish Casino - Social Slots] (casino) and other games quickly gained momentum.
3. Japan, the United States and South Korea are still the main regions for mobile game revenue. The four categories of puzzle, RPG, casino, and leisure all achieved revenue growth to varying degrees in the United States; The IAP revenue growth rate of casinos and arcades in Japan exceeded 500%, which is very noteworthy; RPG maintained its position as the "main revenue force" in the Korean market.
Third, Chinese overseas manufacturers occupy nearly 40% of the global TOP list, and China's overseas development maintains a continuous influence (what are the major performances of Chinese games going overseas in 2022?). ）。
As far as the influence of social media is concerned, [Genshin], which frequently appears in hot searches and short-term high-frequency linkage, is a well-deserved top stream; In addition, there are also [PUBG], [Fifth Personality], [Shining Warmth] and so on. In terms of advertising efforts, Tuya Mobile's coloring game "Coloring Book!" and Bole Games' casino mobile game [Jackpot World™] have become the most heavily launched mobile games on iOS and Android respectively.
As Rosky shared: "The global gaming market in 2022 saw a decline in total size, which indicates that the industry product competition will become more fierce in the coming years. However, the proportion of Chinese games in overseas market revenue reached 35% this year, once again refreshing a record high. This also shows that the game going overseas is still the trend of the times... Compared with the head of the veteran overseas team, the high lifting and heavy products. Under the trend of game globalization, small and medium-sized teams are also gradually releasing their products to overseas markets, such as casual puzzle, simulation management, synthetic placement and other types will have outstanding performance. However, with the fierce competition in the market, everyone is looking for the integration of product gameplay and the breakthrough of the user circle. The growth of major overseas game markets and even global markets has slowed down or even fell slightly, especially in the United States, Japan, and South Korea, which have all experienced year-on-year or month-on-month declines to varying degrees. In these mature markets and regions where games go global, it is conceivable that competition will intensify in the future. ”
The game has transitioned from being guided by the "lighthouse" to "group portrait" survival, although going to sea is the general trend, but the competition is only increasing. Finding "hot tracks" such as casual puzzles, business simulations, and synthetic placements and "hot regions" such as Latin America, the Middle East, Malaysia, and Turkey may be a way to survive.
03 Break the circle
Although it is said that it is necessary to sail into the deep sea, there are still people who are silently accumulating strength in order to break the circle.
There are several important clues. First of all, it can further break the circle in the market that still has a demographic dividend, these markets refer to Southeast Asia, Latin America, the Middle East in the three major areas such as Vietnam, Malaysia, Turkey, Brazil, the Philippines and other markets, as mentioned earlier, from the data performance, we can see that the fast-growing market is no longer just mature regions such as the United States and Japan.
Then, continue to deepen hybrid monetization, such as low-light interaction, while maintaining not too heavy gameplay and IAA monetization, IAP exploration in mature markets is also progressing well. For example, more and more hyper-casual games are iterating on the IAA through gameplay iteration and trying different IAP combination ideas, so that the hyper-casual IAP has achieved great growth in 2022, and hyper-casual has also embarked on a longer-term gamification development path from a model of "relying only on the rapid launch of new games".
Along the ultra-casual idea, the trend of sub-gameplay has been extended: starting from Playrix pulling rings, to match-3 of Sanqi, and then to this year's rescue of the dog's head, overseas manufacturers are adding sub-gameplay to their products; 【Royal Match】Combining creative and fun gameplay/clear goal lines with the main gameplay, this game has achieved great results in the United States.
In addition, it is becoming more and more important to build IP, find incremental markets or even offline stock markets through IP linkage, and then use social media to create popular characters and become "big factory tricks".
For example, in 2022, Bandai Namco invested in the game distribution platform Mirativ to build an "IP metaverse" to bring more new experiences to players; Netmarble has long operated IP products, and its popular games such as "Lineage 2: Rebirth" and "Marvel: Future War" have countless fans around the world; The linkage between [Onmyoji] and real-life artists, and the linkage between "White Night Aurora] and the anime series "Kobayashi's Dragon Maid" have all enhanced the social media influence of the game; Electronic Arts' "Apex Legends" and Blizzard's "Diablo" were successfully released and ranked among the top 100 revenue charts.
Finally, the popular festivals of globalization, the popular holidays of the local market, are still a force to be reckoned with. In 2022, during Halloween, many games in the global market reached the peak of buying in the second half of this year, and the highest "Candy Crush Saga" collected 62 million knives in a single month; The World Cup is even more so, which directly promotes the growth of sports games in Latin America, such as Brazil and Argentina (Argentina market development report, the champion of the 2022 World Cup, compared to Latin American key markets).
These are just the opportunities we can see at the moment, and there will be many possibilities under the dark tide, and only 2023 will give the answer.