The calculations of the old writers of Sanda 丨 Japanese cannot be 100% effective

Feng Zhen, a veteran football journalist and sports columnist, has been to the front line many times to cover the World Cup. He now works for Phoenix.com.

Let's take the camera back four years to the final round of the 2018 FIFA World Cup group stage in Russia, with Japan vs Poland and Senegal vs Colombia. Before the match, Japan and Senegal scored 4 points, Colombia had 3 points, Poland had 0 points, except for Poland, which was ironclad out, the other 3 teams, everything was possible.

The two matches started at the same time, and in the final 10 minutes, Colombia led Senegal 1-0 and Japan trailed Poland 1-0. If the two matches are played according to this scoreline, Japan will have the same points, the same goal difference and the same win-loss relationship as Senegal, but can advance to the round of 16 with fewer yellow cards.

At this time, the old captain Makoto Hasebe came on as a substitute with the instructions of the coaching staff. The command is: stop pressing the attack to try to equalise, just fall back in the back, and unless Senegal on the other side equalizes, Japan do not act rashly.

In that way, the Japanese team fell 10 minutes at the back, and the leading Poland team also wisely did not grab it. The fans in the room booed en masse, and fans all over the world watched stupidly on live TV. But the Japanese team was completely unmoved, strictly following the developed tactics, falling on their feet in the backfield, consuming time.

In fact, it was also a risk, because once Senegal equalized, the Japanese team was very passive, leaving too little time for them to react, but the Japanese team still did not rush to the backfield. In the end, Senegal failed to equalize, and Japan firmly advanced to the round of 16.

It's not so much a risk as a rational analysis. At least 25% gambling, 75% rational analysis.

The Japanese coaching staff apparently had several sets of contingency plans before the game, and they had already documented the situation in the last 10 minutes. If the Japanese team desperately presses the attack but loses the ball, from one goal behind to two goals behind, it will definitely be themselves who are out; But if the status quo is maintained, it is Senegal who are out.

Mathematically speaking, Senegal and Japan had their own variables in the last 10 minutes. The Japanese team turned its variables into quantities, adjusting the goal of the game to lose only one, with clear logic and calmness. The Japanese team left only the Senegalese variant. Apparently their intelligence system can accurately know that Senegal is weak in attack and the chances of equalizing are not very high.

It was an ordinary loss, but it was also a classic promotion. Since then, Japanese football has left the impression of being a calculating person. Although they were criticized for their lack of enterprising spirit at the time, it had to be admitted that they played the rules of football to the extreme. At that time, the head coach of the Japanese team was Hiroshi Nishino, and the first assistant coach was Hoichi Mori.

Four years later, Moriho led the team to the World Cup and continued to show a calculating side. In the first round against Germany, he did not field the strongest team in the starting 11, but played in a defensive lineup to try to consume Germany. Fortunately, they were only one goal behind in the first half, and Morihoichi replaced five players in the second half, including Kaoru Mito, Toru Do, Takuma Asano and Takumi Minamino who played in Europe's five major leagues, and directed a 2-1 comeback to create the most amazing victory in the history of Japanese football.

Once again, Mori's calculations succeeded, and they were a great success, and they can be called the masterpieces of his coaching career. Fans in Japan lined up to apologize to Morihoichi on the Internet.

Japan defeated Germany 2-1 as coach Hoichi Mori celebrates with his players According to Visual China

Morihoichi, who gained great confidence, relied on the gourd to draw the scoop, and continued to use this method in the second game, and it became more intense. Against Costa Rica, Japan's starting 11 players have changed by five compared to the first game, and their card strength is weaker than in the first game. When you see Nagoya winger Yuki Soma, who is short but not flexible enough, playing a trick on the field, you know that Morihoichi is playing a game of taboo horse racing again.

Morihoichi wanted to use the bench to consume Costa Rica in the first half, and then take advantage of the opponent's declining fitness in the second half to use five substitutions to play the elite to win the game in one fell swoop. There is even speculation that he wants to win Costa Rica at the lowest cost in order to better prepare for the match against Spain, which will surprise the world twice.

Understandably, successful people always believe in their own set of things. Unfortunately, there are no more than three things. This time Mori's team messed up.

Morihoichi did not expect his team to be unable to attack for a long time, but there was a rare mistake in the defense, and the passive Costa Rica team seized the only opportunity in 90 minutes to win. Senbao was too clever in his calculations and missed Qing Qing's life.

0-1 defeat to Costa Rica, Japanese player regretfully withdrew according to IC photo

Football is consequential most of the time, and this game did lose to Morihoichi. He sent the strongest team earlier, gave the strongest team more time, and maybe this would not have happened. Japan's good fortune after winning against Germany suddenly came to naught, and only a victory over Spain in the final round could it truly control its destiny.

It can only be said that people are not machines after all, and football fields are not factories. The ultimate charm of football is that it cannot be accurately calculated.

Editor-in-charge Ren Zhijiang Editor Ou Peng

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