Tokayev was successfully re-elected, the United States immediately threw an olive branch, and at a time when Russia was declining, some neighboring countries finally waited for a "good opportunity" to get rid of its control and reduce its dependence. In any case, neighbors cannot choose and cannot move. It is impossible for the countries of Central Asia to cut off from Russia and will not join the anti-Russian camp of the West. For the United States and the West, it is of great significance to be able to equalize this game.
Tokayev spoke at the CSTO summit in Yerevan, calling for Russian-Ukrainian peace talks
Kazakhstan's general elections, supervised by the SCO station
Kazakhstan's current president, Tokayev, recently won 81.31% of the vote in the interim presidential election, winning the election by a landslide. His other five opponents each received less than 5% of the vote. Tokayev's successful re-election means that he will continue to serve as the leader of Kazakhstan for the next seven years.
It is worth noting that Kazakhstan broke the conventional election pattern this time and held the general election early. In order to ensure the smooth conduct of the election, the SCO sent personnel to Kazakhstan as soon as possible to observe the entire process of the election on the ground. After all, the large-scale riots that broke out in Kazakhstan at the beginning of this year will inevitably make the Tokayev government palpitate. At that time, it was the Russian "big brother" who sent troops to station that the riots were quelled. But at present, if a similar situation arises, Kazakhstan will probably no longer easily turn to Russia.
It is worth noting that the Kazakh presidential election did not invite the Russian-led CSTO to send peacekeeping troops to station, as at the beginning of the year, which may be because Kazakhstan has been fully prepared this time. In addition, since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Kazakhstan-Russia relations have become more delicate. Tokayev has repeatedly publicly stated that he does not support Russia's military operations, and has refused to recognize the referendum on the accession of four Ukrainian states to Russia. Subsequently, Kazakhstan also withdrew from the CIS Transnational Monetary Committee agreement. This means that Kazakhstan is no longer dependent on the ruble and is moving more to the euro and the dollar.
In this election, Kazakhstan asked the CSTO observer mission and the SCO to supervise at the same time. Kazakhstan has worked hard to avoid Russian influence on the political situation in Kazakhstan, reflecting a new strategy of "balancing to the east". On election polling day, Tokayev said Kazakhstan must pursue a policy of "multi-directional diplomacy."
Tokayev and Putin attend the Astana summit in October
The United States handed over an olive branch, and Central Asia ushered in a good opportunity to leave Russia
Another episode is when after the dust settles on Kazakhstan's election, the United States expresses its intention to work with Tokayev's government, which won the election, to advance common goals. Although the United States believes that "the election process lacks competition", the implication is that it is not fair enough. The State Department also noted that the United States supports Tokayev's proposed reforms and urges the administration to fully implement them. After Tokayev's re-election, he may remain further away from Russia.
The EU is also going to intervene in Central Asia. EU senior diplomatic representative Borrell said that in order to balance the influence of China and Russia, the EU will expand cooperation with Central Asian countries and will build a transport corridor around Russia. Next year, Kazakhstan hopes to transport 1.5 million tons of oil through Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, Tbilisi, the capital of Georgia, and then to the port of Ceyhan in Turkey, trying the possibility of de-Russification of oil exports.
In May, Putin met with the leaders of the CSTO allies in the Kremlin
In fact, the United States and the West have not stopped penetrating into Central Asian countries. Previously, it openly demanded that Central Asian countries "decouple" from Russia. Central Asian countries actually have this calculation in their hearts, and they definitely don't want to be willing to be the backyard of other countries?
Now, wars and sanctions have consumed Russia a lot of national power. In the coming period, Russia will maintain the trend of decline, and whether and when it will be revived in the future is still uncertain. For Russia's neighboring countries, this is a good opportunity to get rid of Russian control and reduce dependence on Russia.
However, as long as Russia remains, none of these countries will be able to cut off from Russia. Therefore, these countries will currently consider keeping a greater distance from Russia in order to occupy a better position in the game. These countries are not going to cut off from Russia, nor are they going to join the anti-Russian camp of the West. However, for the United States and the West, these former Soviet countries were originally Russia's "strategic backyard", and now they have the opportunity to become a diplomatic stage equal to Russia, which is also of great significance.
There is talk in Russia, and Kazakhstan is next
Recently, Russian political scientist Drobnitsky said in a Russian program that Kazakhstan is Russia's next problem after Ukraine and NATO, because "there are a lot of Russians, territories and nuclear fuel from Rosatom." Some Kazakh parliamentarians protested this remark. Russian presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov came forward to explain: "These political scientists do not reflect the official position, it is better not to listen." ”
Even if the speaker has no intention, the listener often has a heart, and these factors are real. Back in late October, with Tokayev's approval, Kazakhstan adopted a revised military doctrine to "adequately respond to new threats and risks," the content of which partly reflects the high level of anxiety caused by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
The Armed Forces of Kazakhstan are trained and prepared to deal with evolving threats
The report mentions the need to protect the country's borders, to equip them with "modern weapons and military equipment", as well as scenarios for military mobilization. Kazakhstan will "establish mutually beneficial cooperation with foreign companies for the supply of modern weapons and military equipment, as well as establish joint ventures in Kazakhstan for the production of advanced weapons systems," the report said. "It is clear that Kazakhstan wants to get rid of its current heavy dependence on Russia and diversify the sources of military equipment and economic partners.
Central Asian countries are not intent on breaking with Russia, but they do have an incentive to reduce their dependence on Russia and find new partners. Kazakhstan wants to expand the single-wood bridge under Russian control into a broad road to the world. This is a logical strategic choice.