On February 24 this year, no one expected that Russia and Ukraine would really fight and fight each other.
Now on November 25, nine months have passed since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, but this protracted war has not subsided, and news of the battle between the two armies continues to come from the battlefield, and tensions continue to usher in new variables.
At a critical moment, the situation in Russia and Ukraine ushered in three new trends worth paying attention to.
First, after the European Parliament defined Russia as a "state supporting terrorism", the United States rarely spoke up for Russia.
On November 23, the European Parliament passed a resolution defining Russia as a "state sponsor of terrorism," that is, a state that supports "extremism," and called on EU member states, as well as the United States, Britain, Canada and other countries to follow suit.
As we all know, "extremism" is opposed and abhorred by the international community, and once a country is defined as a "state supporting terrorism", in addition to facing a blow to its reputation and image, the most important point is that it will suffer due sanctions and punishments from "countries supporting terrorism", such as cutting off diplomatic and economic exchanges, as well as arms embargoes, national defense blockades and so on.
Today, judging from the statement of the European Parliament, defining Russia as a "state supporting terrorism" is only a decision of its family, and the EU and the United States have not yet "followed the card". This means that the definition of the European Parliament is not too "lethal" for Russia.
As a result, Russia's response to this matter seems to be quite "understated."
Zakharova
For example, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov subtly responded that he believed that a person of sound mind would not make such a decision, let alone agree with such a decision, and stressed that he "does not have a medical degree", which is nothing more than a hint that the European Parliament is "sick", but he cannot save it.
For example, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zakharova said that it is recommended to identify the European Parliament as an "institution that supports stupidity."
Therefore, the European Parliament recently issued another appeal to the United States and Western countries, hoping that more countries would join the ranks of defining Russia as a "state supporting terrorism".
It is in this context that the United States rarely speaks for Russia.
On the 24th, the United States made it clear that although European countries have the right to make their own decisions, the United States will not identify Russia as a "terrorist state", because Russia does not meet the legal definition of the United States, and emphasized that the United States has imposed a series of sanctions on Russia in many fields, so there is no need to define Russia in other specific ways.
In other words, the decisions made by the European Parliament only represent Europe, not the United States, and the United States will not define Russia as a "state sponsor of terrorism" and emphasize that Russia has not yet met the criteria for the United States to define a "state supporting terrorism".
This is interesting, Europe defines Russia as a "state that supports terrorism", and the United States not only refuses to follow the card, but also claims that Russia has not reached the standard, which obviously speaks for Russia and "satirizes" the European Parliament.
It should be noted that precisely because this definition is not trivial, especially between the United States and Russia, the United States has been very cautious.
For example, as early as April this year, Zelensky asked Western countries led by the United States to include Russia in the list of "terrorist states", and then the US Senate passed relevant resolutions.
However, on September 6, US President Joe Biden made it clear that the United States finally decided not to see Russia defined as a "state sponsor of terrorism."
Before that, Russia had issued a stern warning to the United States - if the United States included Russia in the list of "terrorist states", then US-Russian relations would be severed, that is, "severance of diplomatic relations".
All indications show that although the United States does not deal with Russia on the surface and has launched many severe sanctions against Russia, in fact, it cannot "decouple" from Russia, because Russia's fertilizer, energy, grain, precious metals, nuclear materials and other commodities are all needed by the United States and are difficult to give up.
In addition, the United States and Russia are also the world's top military powers and nuclear powers, and it is not in its interests for the United States to completely "break off diplomatic relations" with Russia.
What's more, as the United States said, the United States has imposed enough sanctions on Russia, and even includes measures against "countries supporting terrorism", and the White House will naturally not give Russia the name of "supporting terrorist countries" for the sake of face.
Moreover, because the United States refuses to "follow the card", the "choice of sides" of other Western countries may be more obvious - France, Germany and the European Union, which are not willing to completely break with Russia, will join the United States in refusing to "follow the card"; However, Britain, Poland, Lithuania and other countries, which have not dealt with Russia, are likely to echo the decision of the European Parliament and insist on defining Russia as a "state supporting terrorism."
Of course, when the United States has long made it clear that it will not define Russia as a "state supporting terrorism", the European Parliament also passed this resolution, which does not rule out the possibility that the United States "repented" and secretly instructed the European Parliament.
Now, although the United States has come forward to reiterate that it will not list Russia as a "state supporting terrorism", it does not oppose the decision of the European Parliament, and obviously has the intention of supporting European countries to make their own decisions in disguise.
Imagine if most European countries agree to define Russia as a "state supporting terrorism", then whether the United States follows the card or not, it can achieve the purpose of further pressure on Russia.
After all, from any point of view, even if the United States chooses to speak for Russia openly, the overall proposition of putting pressure on Russia will not change.
Movement two, Ukraine fell into a national blackout, Zelensky hurriedly asked the United States, Britain, France and Germany for help.
Recently, due to the continuous air strikes of the Russian army, it has hit the energy infrastructure in Ukraine, resulting in the paralysis of nearly half of the power facilities, which has caused a large-scale power outage throughout Ukraine. This is bad news when it has begun to snow in Ukraine and the heating needs of the population continue to rise.
On the 25th, Zelensky called out to the United States, Britain, France, Germany and other Western countries, asking the latter to provide Ukraine with high-voltage equipment to help it restore the power system, and to provide Ukraine with corresponding air defense weapons and equipment to resist Russian air strikes.
At the same time, Ukrainian Energy Minister Galushenko said that an emergency meeting with the EU energy commissioner has been held and he also hopes that Europe will provide power equipment as soon as possible to help Ukraine alleviate the energy crisis.
In short, the current power supply situation in Ukraine is critical, and if the problem of insufficient electricity cannot be improved as soon as possible, it will trigger a large number of public protests, which in turn will affect Kiev's decision-making and increase the pressure on the Ukrainian army on the front line.
Therefore, from Russia's point of view, the continuous air strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure are indeed a bit of a "surrender without a fight".
Nowadays, it is difficult for Ukraine to reverse the situation on its own, and it is obviously an inevitable decision to turn to the United States, Britain, France and Germany.
Movement three, Poland asked Germany to deploy anti-aircraft missiles in Ukraine.
Since the Polish missile incident, the situation in Eastern Europe has continued to escalate, and Germany intends to provide Poland with "Patriot" missiles to enhance Poland's air defense forces, on the one hand, to avoid the recurrence of similar missile oolong incidents, on the other hand, to avoid the Russian-Ukrainian war from affecting Poland and Germany.
But unexpectedly, Germany was just about to take out the "Patriot" missile, and the Polish defense minister said that he would ask Germany to deploy the "Patriot" air defense missile in Ukraine, and let the German "Eurofighter" patrol Polish airspace and western Ukraine.
That is to say, originally Germany deployed "Patriot" missiles in Poland to protect Poland, but after Poland's request, Germany is likely to deploy air defense missiles in Ukraine, invisibly, which has become the embodiment of the West taking the opportunity to provide military aid to Ukraine, and sensitive equipment such as air defense systems has been strictly warned by Russia.
Obviously, behind Poland's move, it is still aimed at putting pressure on Russia and aggravating the disadvantage of the Russian army in the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield.
And that's not the end of it. In the past few days, the United States, Britain, France, Germany and other Western countries are deciding to set a price ceiling for Russian oil - about $65 to $70 per barrel, but Poland came up and directly "bargained in half", requiring that Russian oil not exceed $30 per barrel.
It should be noted that the current international oil price is far more than $70 per barrel, originally thought that the United States and the West "price pressure" is ruthless enough, but did not expect Poland to start more ruthlessly.
Of course, judging from the direct "half-cut" move from Poland, it is obviously mixed with a strong atmosphere of hostility to Russia.
It should be noted that at present, except for Poland, most European countries have agreed to the pricing of "65 to 75 US dollars" proposed by the United States, Britain, France and Germany.
It can be seen that Poland's targeting of Russia is indeed very meaningful, which is not only related to the historical entanglement of the two countries, but also has an inseparable relationship with today's competition for interests.
It can only be said that the mountain rain is about to come, the pressure on Russia is indeed not small, and the situation in Russia and Ukraine is still ushering in variables.
Next, let's see how the situation develops.