When it comes to the Middle East, the picture in everyone's mind is a group of feudal kings in tents and camels, which is very wrong, in fact, there are only 8 major oil-producing countries in the Middle East, they are: Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Qatar and Bahrain.
Arab tycoons are mainly produced in the latter six, which is commonly known as the "Gulf States".
According to statistics, the proven reserves of oil in the Gulf region account for half of the global total, and the reserves of natural gas are also considerable, with the reserves of Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia alone exceeding 23 trillion cubic meters, accounting for about 14.8% of the world's total.
The population of the six Gulf countries together is less than 60 million, but the total economic volume exceeds 1.41 trillion US dollars, except for Oman, the per capita GDP of the other five countries exceeds 20,000 US dollars, and Qatar has reached 68,800 US dollars, but these countries can not be called developed countries, because the economy of the six countries is completely dependent on oil and natural gas, once the global energy structure fundamentally changes, the economy will have big problems.
01
In fact, the Gulf region's sudden wealth has also been a matter of recent decades.
Before World War II, the economic development of the six Gulf countries was very backward, the land was sparsely populated, it was all sand and stone, and the temperature remained above 40 degrees all year round, which was one of the few forbidden areas on the earth.
When Saudi Arabia was first founded, in addition to collecting a ticket by faith in Mecca, the rest could only lead camels to engage in desert tourism, Saudi Arabia at that time, not to mention that the people were so poor that they could only play in the sand, and even the king's family had no surplus food.
In other countries such as Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, before the 50s, foreign trade mainly relied on fishing and pearl mining, but in the 70s, Japan's cultured pearls began to dump on the international market, pearl prices plummeted, the Gulf region could not find alternative industries for a while, and the national economy was almost bankrupt.
The Gulf countries' economic beginnings began with the discovery of oil.
In the 30s of the last century, oil was discovered in Saudi Arabia; In the 50s, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Oman successively found oil fields, but these oil resources were controlled by foreign capital, and the kings of the Middle East could only share a small part of the profits.
For example, when the Americans went to Saudi Arabia to find oil, after several rounds of negotiations, they finally signed an agreement with the old king, which stipulated that the California Standard Oil Company could explore and extract oil in a desert area of 1.1392 million square miles, equivalent to 70% of the land area of Saudi Arabia.
In addition to obtaining a one-time cash of tens of thousands of pounds, the Saudi government can also get 5,000 pounds a year in rent. If the Americans find oil, the Saudi king can collect an additional £100,000 and receive a share of the profits from the sale of oil.
In the years that followed, the Americans began a desert treasure hunt, and the dollar fell into it without hearing a single sound, and it was not until 1937 that the first oil field was discovered.
With positive feedback, the Americans continued their efforts, found more oil fields, and received huge returns. The Saudi king can only receive some economic subsidies according to the contract, which is about $15 million a year.
02
This situation did not change radically until the end of World War II.
In the 50s, the national movement in the Middle East was surging, the people of the Gulf countries strongly demanded the recovery of oil mining rights, Saudi Arabia was the first to request a new oil concession agreement with the Americans, the proportion of accounts was changed to half and half, and the annual profit of the Saudi king soared to 110 million US dollars.
With the demonstration effect of the leading big brother, other countries have also followed suit, and the oil revenue of the Gulf countries has also begun to increase significantly, in just ten years, the oil trade income of the Gulf countries has reached 9 billion US dollars, more than the total trade of other products.
It's just that the economy of the Gulf countries is still stretched, the economic structure of the society is still stuck in the original ecological agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, and the slightly more advanced industry is to drive ships and run transportation, and build a freight transfer station along the coast.
In addition, the oil exploitation rights in the Gulf region are still in the hands of the "seven oil sisters", they not only control 90% of the oil resources except North America, but also have the absolute pricing power of the oil market, through the collective suppression of these Western oil companies, the price of crude oil in the Middle East has been maintained at $1.8 per barrel for a long time, almost half of the price of coal in the same period, and the profit share of the Gulf countries is also pitiful.
Moreover, the Gulf countries at that time did not completely get rid of British colonial rule, and they had little say in the world, and if they were a little impulsive, they might be stunned by cannons, and the country simply did not have the ability to protect its national economy and natural resources.
It was not until the outbreak of the third Middle East war in 1956, when the United States and the Soviet Union squeezed Britain and France out of the Middle East, that the Gulf countries saw the hope of independence, Kuwait became independent in 1961, and Bahrain, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates became independent in 1971.
In order to compete with the Seven Sisters, the major oil producers in the Middle East also became an organization in 1960, the famous "OPEC".
It's just that the Arab countries look like gods, and the good brotherhood is also broken at the touch of a touch, the organization is there, but the team is not easy to bring, and it has not fought the seven sisters for 13 years, and after years of hard work, OPEC finally raised the price of crude oil to $2.95 per barrel in January 1973.
But the opportunity for a national feast soon came.
On October 6, 1973, Egypt and Syrian forces launched a surprise attack on Israel from the Sinai Peninsula and the Golan Heights, respectively, and the fourth Middle East war broke out.
Since it was the day of the Jewish Redemption, Israel was on hunger strike throughout the country, and Egypt and Syria caught Israel by surprise, especially in the direction of the Sinai Peninsula, where the Egyptian army completed all the strategic objectives envisioned in only 4 days.
You know, in the first three Middle East wars, the Arabs were repeatedly rubbed by the Israeli army on the ground, almost all of them quickly rolled out of the pulp, and the Arab self-esteem was also hammered to pieces, and this sneak attack, although not very decent, finally breathed a breath for the Arab world.
However, Egypt finally mispaid for this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, and with a clear advantage, the Arabs thought about life in place, and instead of continuing to expand their gains, they crouched in their strongholds and waited for the Israeli army to counterattack.
Soon Israel mobilized 400,000 troops and received a lot of assistance from the United States, and Nixon even ordered all the flying equipment of the US Air Force to be flown to Israel.
A week after the outbreak of the war, Israel was revived in blood, and a wave of counteroffensives crushed the Syrian army, and then the Israeli army smuggled through the Suez Canal, cutting off the retreat of the Egyptian Third Army, and the Arabs were once again passive.
Everyone must know that although Egypt and Syria are the ones who are dead, it is the entire Arab world that supports these two countries behind them. Seeing that they won first and then lost, the Arab brothers could not sit still, they conducted a profound review of themselves, and finally came to the conclusion that the Arabs could not beat Israel, mainly European and American countries behind the moth, since the physical attack had no effect, then use magic to defeat magic.
03
The outbreak of the fourth Middle East war coincided with the discussion between OPEC and the Seven Sisters about a new round of oil pricing. OPEC raised the price of crude oil to $5.11, an increase of up to 70%, and cut production by 5% per month.
But this is not the end, but the beginning.
On 19 October, the United States duly announced that it would provide $2.2 billion in military aid to Israel, which completely infuriated the Arab countries.
Libya announced an oil embargo against the United States on the same day, and the next day Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries quickly followed suit, collectively cut off oil to the United States and the European Community, and the global daily oil supply was reduced by 5 million barrels, and the price of oil soared directly to $11.65 a barrel, nearly four times the price in January 1973.
The world's first oil crisis broke out just like that.
The crisis hit the Western economy hard, with the United States alone seeing a 20 percent drop in gross industrial production and negative growth in 1974.
This was followed by the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979, and the second oil crisis broke out.
It was also during this period that some leading iron countries such as Iran, Iraq, and Libya nationalized oil companies, that is, forcibly recovered the oil exploitation rights of foreign companies, and with a good mentality, they could also give some compensation to foreign companies, and punk points were directly purchased for zero yuan.
Although Saudi Arabia did not say anything, but the body was very honest, through several years of soft grinding and hard bubbles, it also recovered the right to extract oil in 1980 and renamed Aramco Oil to Saudi Aramco.
The two oil crises hit Western industry hard and boosted the economic power of the Gulf states.
From 1973 to 1980, international oil prices soared 20 times, and the per capita income of the Gulf countries reached or even exceeded the level of the developed industrial countries of Europe and the United States. According to the data, 70%-80% of the oil needed by Western Europe and more than 30% of the energy required by the United States need to be supplied by the Gulf countries.
If there is no Middle East oil, I am afraid that the global economy will be paralyzed, so the United States has two aircraft carrier battle groups in the Gulf region all year round, which is a physiological real reaction, who dares to say something about Middle East oil, the Americans will not hesitate to drive the aircraft carrier to each other's faces, because oil is not only related to the global circulation of the dollar, but also to the United States' own industrial production.
04
The two oil crises have also made the United States deeply aware that the energy gap cannot only rely on the Middle East, but must find potential in itself, and only by producing its own oil can the energy security of the United States be guaranteed.
So since the 80s, Americans have been immersed in North America looking for oil, and local oil companies in the United States have also begun to grow rapidly during this period.
Of course, Wang Ye in the Middle East will certainly not wait for American oil companies to become bigger, and they have taken various non-physical suppression actions in order to limit the development of American oil companies.
The most recent action was in 2014, when Saudi Arabia persuaded OPEC to increase production significantly, and in just four months, the price of oil was reduced from $100 a barrel to $40 a barrel.
You know, the oil in that place in the Middle East, the oil quality is good, the cost of exploitation is still very low, the average cost per barrel is less than $10, while the cost of extracting a barrel of crude oil in the United States is $36, the oil price falls to $40 per barrel, the American company basically has no money to earn, cost control almost meaning, it directly declared bankruptcy.
U.S. oil production fell from 9.6 million barrels per day to 8.5 million barrels per day, a reduction of 1 million barrels per day, resulting in the bankruptcy of hundreds of oil companies and the loss of thousands of oil workers.
Those lucky companies can only exploit themselves, try their best to reduce costs, and even borrow money to find oil at any cost, through this round of reshuffle, American oil companies have also begun to iterate themselves, and now the United States shale oil exploitation technology leads the world, and is currently the only country in the world to achieve large-scale commercial exploitation of shale oil.
In 2021, the United States has become the world's largest oil producer, with an average daily production of nearly 10 million barrels and an annual output of more than 700 million tons, followed by Russia with about 530 million tons, and Saudi Arabia third with about 515 million tons.
Today's relationship between the United States and the Gulf countries is not only a military ally, but also a competitor in the oil market, so it is not difficult to understand that the relationship between Saudi Arabia and the United States has become farther and farther in recent years.
Oil has made the Gulf states rich overnight, but the problems ahead are also obvious.
That place in the Middle East is a mess, but fortunately with oil, the feudal tycoons can use money to raise the people, and the country can maintain normal operation. However, the trend of future energy transition is irreversible, the oil economy is difficult to maintain, and the model of spending money to feed the people cannot continue to play.
In 2020, Saudi Arabia's oil revenue exceeded 60% of the country's fiscal revenue, but there was still a fiscal deficit of $130 billion, and it is expected that by 2040, Saudi Arabia's revenue will decrease by 25%-40%, and the fiscal deficit will further expand, but the problem is that the Saudi population is growing rapidly, 60% are under the age of 25.
In other words, Saudi Arabia's income is decreasing, but more and more people need to be fed, and if the problem of feeding the people in the future is not solved, then the solution is likely to be the problem of what Wang Ye eats.
Gulf countries generally suffer from oil path dependence, the only way out is to complete the national transformation in a short period of time, now Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Dubai are betting on the goal of building a new technology city, but the problem is that not all problems can be solved by piling up dollars, Rome was not built in a day, and the transformation cannot be achieved overnight.
The pace of popularization of new energy is getting closer and closer, which is a major event for all Middle Eastern oil-producing countries.
End of this article.