I have to say that this tragedy in Poland is very oolong and dramatic, which made the world sweat cold, and should also toss Biden and the entire West enough.
Many friends should know the origin of the incident, on November 15, a farm in the Polish town of Pratvitov, near the Polish-Ukrainian border, was hit by two foreign missiles, killing two people.
Foreign missiles hit Polish territory and also killed two people. From every point of view, it's a big deal. Not to mention, Poland is still a NATO country.
The Polish side was outraged.
Polish Prime Minister Morawiecki immediately ordered the convening of an emergency meeting of ministers of national security and defense. Polish President Duda made a phone call to US President Joe Biden, who held the G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia. The Polish military also raised its military alert.
Therefore, we also saw that in the hotel in Bali, Biden was on the phone with Duda with a tired face, next to the also very tired US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and US National Security Affairs Assistant Sullivan.
Biden then also interrupted the original schedule and urgently called a meeting of the leaders of the "allies" in Bali to discuss the Polish incident. The mystery in this matter, I will talk about it again.
Who did it?
Poland has its sights set on Russia. Polish Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau immediately summoned the Russian ambassador to Poland and asked him with a split head and a face, "demanding that the Russian side immediately give a detailed explanation."
How does Russia explain it?
The response of the Russian Ministry of Defense was that Russia did not carry out any strikes on targets near the Polish-Ukrainian border at that time, and the so-called missile fragments found "have nothing to do with Russian weapons", and the statements of Polish media and officials about the so-called Russian missiles falling into the Polish-Ukrainian border area are "a deliberate provocation to escalate the situation."
Subsequently, Russian military experts determined that the photos at the scene showed that the missiles that fell into Poland were Ukrainian S-300 air defense missiles, not Russian cruise missiles.
But in response to Russia's accusations, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba immediately scolded back, believing that the accusation that "Ukrainian missiles fell in Poland" was a "conspiracy theory."
On the same day, it was true that the Russian army launched a large-scale missile attack on the western region of Ukraine, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky previously accused the Russian army of "launching 85 missile attacks on Ukraine." According to his determination, it was Russian missiles that attacked Poland, and "terror is not limited to our borders."
Russia fights Ukraine, Ukraine is not a NATO country after all; But Poland is a NATO ally, and according to NATO regulations, an attack on one member state is an attack on all countries, and that is to activate the collective defense clause.
If it is determined that Russia did it, the consequences are serious, this is a serious violation of the territory of Poland. What kind of chain reaction it will be next, people can't imagine.
The world did break out in a cold sweat.
My first reaction at that time was that many escalations of war on the European continent began in Poland. I really hope that this time is not, but how to properly handle it is indeed a severe test of the wisdom and strategy of the relevant leaders.
But as a result, it was a little crying and laughing.
Because the situation was less than 24 hours, it soon turned around 180 degrees.
Feeling that Biden also breathed a sigh of relief, he then publicly told reporters that the United States expressed its condolences for the two Polish dead, but the two missiles were "unlikely to have been launched from Russia" from the trajectory.
What do you mean?
Actually, to put it mildly, this is not a Russian missile, but a Ukrainian anti-aircraft one.
The United States must have adjusted, feeling that the entire West quickly changed its caliber, and all decided that it was necessary to investigate further, but the missiles seemed to be Ukrainian.
Polish President Duda later admitted that "from the information we have and our allies, it is the Soviet-made S-300 missile, an old type of missile, and there is no evidence that it was launched by the Russian side." It is quite possible that it was launched by Ukrainian air defense systems. ”
In this case, Polish Prime Minister Morawiecki also said that Poland may not need to continue to invoke Article IV of the NATO agreement for meetings.
And many Western media have also quietly deleted reports that some Western countries identified Russian missiles. Anyway, when I searched again just now, a lot of content was no longer available.
Finally, what to see?
It's still three points.
First, a big crisis ended up being a big oolong.
It was indeed too dramatic, and immediately after the incident broke out, Poland summoned the Russian ambassador. Lithuania and other Baltic countries, let alone the accusations are the work of Russia. Who knows, in the end it was such an oolong.
Now it is Russia's turn to laugh. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev mocked: "The incident of Ukraine's 'missile strike' on Polish farms only proves one thing: the hybrid war launched by the West against Russia is increasing the probability of a world war." ”
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zakharova even asked Poland to apologize without mercy. "Those Polish departments that lashed out at Russia and summoned (Russian in Poland) Ambassador Andreyev late at night, don't want to apologize," she said. ”
This is undoubtedly a tragedy, but the military affairs have made such a drama, I really don't know how to say it?
Of course, the current unified tone in the West is that Russia is still ultimately responsible. Because in the opinion of the West, if it were not for a missile attack by Russia, Ukraine would not have had to launch missiles to intercept and would not have shot into the territory of Poland by mistake ...
Second, how many oolongs are there in a series of Rashomon?
Of course, this Polish missile incident has a slight peculiarity, that is, once it is determined that Russia really did it, the consequences are quite serious, and it may even be an escalation and comprehensive expansion of the war.
The more serious the incident, the less it could become Rashomon, so it was quickly clarified.
What about the series of events that preceded it? For example, the artillery fire in the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant, the West and Ukraine accused Russia of doing it, Russia accused Ukraine of doing it. Also, the Nord Stream pipeline was destroyed, and Russia blamed the West and Ukraine for the black hand, and many people in the West blamed Russia for blaming others.
The truth, there must be only one. But the truth, at least until now, we don't know. The sad thing about this world is that there is often no right or wrong, only a position.
But the truth will come out one day, is it a similar big oolong?
Third, it shows the importance of China's proposition.
Just two days ago, during a meeting with Biden in Bali, the Chinese leader spoke about the crisis in Ukraine, saying:
After the crisis broke out, I put forward the "four shoulds", and not long ago I proposed the "four commons". In the face of a global and complex crisis such as the Ukraine crisis, there are several points worth serious consideration: First, there are no winners in conflict wars; Second, there is no simple solution to complex problems; Third, confrontation between major powers must be avoided.
The tragedy and the oolong incident in Poland once again show the importance of China's claims. In particular, his three inspirations, there are no winners in conflict wars, great power confrontation must be avoided, and there are no simple solutions to complex problems.
The Polish missile incident really made the whole world sweat coldly, of course, Biden was even more choked enough. It is estimated that after thinking about it again and again, he still decided that he could not make Rashomon this time, but he could not clean it up, so he directly said the correct answer: it was done by Ukrainian missiles.
Finally, if you look closely at the picture, you will find that the so-called "allies" meeting convened by Biden on an ad hoc basis to discuss the Polish incident was attended by British Prime Minister Sunak, Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau, German Chancellor Scholz, French President Macron, Italian Prime Minister Meloni, Spanish Prime Minister Sanchez, Dutch Prime Minister Rutte, as well as EU leaders Michel and von der Leyen...
Have you noticed anything different?
Sure enough, it was the Anglo-Saxons who sat in the middle, and Germany and France sat aside.
But since it is an "ally" and Poland is a NATO ally, Biden should convene a meeting of NATO allies. The United States, Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Canada and other countries are indeed NATO countries, but it is very strange that in this photo, there is no Turkish President Erdogan, who is meeting with Bali, but a Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida next to him.
Is it that Erdogan has no time? Or didn't you call him at all?
Oh yes, among all NATO leaders, Erdogan immediately expressed his belief in Russia's position.
Erdogan did not go, but Kishida went and sat in the far corner. Australian Prime Minister Albanese, who also met in Bali, and South Korean President Yoon Seok-yue, who are also non-NATO countries, did not go.
I have to say that this tragedy is very dramatic, but this photo is also very informative.