Wait, wait until the penultimate day of the World Cup, the squad for the round of 32 is finally waiting for me.
In fact, I have been studying the squads of each team for a long time, but horizontal comparison is always more important than a single breakthrough, because no matter how you analyze the player's ability, there are limitations, vertical (too independent), too small in scope, not connected to the practical, with the other 31 teams as a reference, there are more breakthroughs.
The longer I prepared before, the less I felt, and today I will simply talk about a team that has only recently announced its squad - Ecuador in combination with the most recent match.
Before starting this article, I have to regret to say that the French national team actually completed the 26-man roster! These situations are unexpected, indicating that it is not appropriate to draw conclusions too early, haha.
Ecuador – without your plateau red? This melon is not ripe
Brazil's favourites, Argentina's favourites, Uruguay's old faces, what valuable content can be said around Ecuador, a non-favourite and familiar South American team? I gave this team several labels, which can also be said to be breakthroughs:
Home, experience, style, roster, grouping
Many years ago, I gave you an inventory of several highland stadiums in South America, both club and national team, and Ecuador is one of the teams with the Terror High Stadium.
So many friends simply define Ecuador as a team that is outrageous from the home of altitude ball.
It's okay, let's prove it.
Home
In this World Preliminary Round, Ecuador set 7 of its 9 home stadiums in Quito, which is 2800+ at an altitude, 2 at Guayaquil (low altitude), 7 highland home games with 4 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss to get 14 points, 2 non-plateau home games with 1 win and 1 draw to take 4 points, of which 3-0 bloodbath Bolivia also has the highland home advantage, the last game against Argentina is a waste ball, both teams have qualified early, 1-1 to get 1 point, no need to consider.
Compared with the World Cup in Russia in 2018, 9 plateau home games 4 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses took 13 points, the last 1 home loss deliberately sacrificed to Messi's Argentina (he is out, and Argentina must win, otherwise out), then 4 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses, Ecuador's home point efficiency has indeed improved a lot, but the last time their 9 home stadiums were all home stadiums of Quito Plateau, but did not advance.
So my understanding is that Ecuador did not qualify for the World Cup because of the highland home advantage. Then it is impossible to infer that they left the highland home of a certain garbage horse and became lambs to be slaughtered.
experience
Although the highland home field advantage has been falsified, it does not reverse the proof that Ecuador is not at a disadvantage. Now let's see where their disadvantages are.
The South American zone of the World Cup in Russia will advance with 27 points, and the South American zone of the World Cup in Qatar can advance with 26 points, on the contrary, this year's promotion seems to be less difficult, why?
I guess it's the result of other "traditional powerhouses" not giving it a boost. Brazil and Argentina advanced to the World Cup finals early by an overwhelming margin without suspense, while Chile and Colombia played out of whack, and Ecuador inexplicably entered the World Cup by a narrow margin.
To say that a slight advantage is really a weak advantage, let's not talk about the home stadium, because playing the World Cup main game except Qatar is away. Ecuador conceded poor away goals in the World Qualifiers, the number of away goals is not ideal, and there are no super bright away statistics. And because Ecuador has long been not the traditional South American top 4 or even 5 powerhouse, it is difficult for them to go abroad and play against other teams in the world, such as Asian teams and European teams, and they are inexperienced.
I remember that they have not won against Asian teams, and they are all draws, many losses, and few losses. So I think Ecuador's shortcoming is not the loss of the highland home, but the fact that the players do not have enough experience in the game, as well as experience in neutral venues or even neutral venues in West Asia.
Look, there are only 5 players in the squad who play in the five major European leagues, and they are not the country's traditional domestic teams, only the "dumpling team" Brighton has three, three can win two, both are good at defense (gold + silver medal polish), the main back Caisedo's goal belongs to the "iron tree blossom", offensive end Sarmiento can mix 1 start this season thankfully. In the end, dumplings still can't escape the fate of a dish.
So my understanding is that Ecuador is not good at the World Cup, and if they are chopped and chopped, it may be due to lack of experience.
Ball style
In South America for a long time, Ecuador's positioning must be a dish in the eyes of the great powers, 3 points or even 6 points in the eyes of the great powers, so it is not surprising that they are good at defense, and it is reasonable that they are good at counterattacking. However, all this may be reversed in the World Cup, especially in the opening game, when Ecuador becomes the favored side and becomes the strong. Assuming they increase their possession time, the increase may not be shot conversion, but the probability of errors.
Unbelief? If you don't believe it, you can see that Ecuador have been able to concede the ball in the last five years, winning only one game in five years, either losing or being forced to draw by a weak team.
Ecuador playing strong teams is their rhythm, once "bullying", once away, may not play. So my understanding is that Ecuador is more difficult to score points in the opener.
Considering that the defensive ability of the players is worthy of the five major European leagues, and only four strikers brought in (the second fewest with forwards, Brazil brought nine), Ecuador's game goals are not worth paying attention to.
list
If I read deeper, I must be pretending, because I have always been too new to Ecuador to speak deeply, and I don't deserve it, but it's really surprising that their big list came out at the end. What are they pretending?
Castillo's nationality was a nuisance for Ecuador (he had a legal Ecuadorian passport when he was born in Colombia), and the team was almost disqualified from the World Cup, and FIFA eventually allowed them to participate but were subject to a penalty for deducting points in the next World Qualifiers.
But when we look at Ecuador's 26-man squad, Castillo is still excluded. As a result, the team lacked a main right-back from the World Qualifiers, and the completeness of the squad was slightly reduced.
grouping
Group A has the host Qatar, which is the lowest positioned team in this group, which makes it difficult for the other three teams. Obviously the most difficult is Ecuador.
After several changes, the final organizer Qatar set the Qatar vs Ecuador match as the opening match of the 2022 Qatar World Cup. What a boring matchup, with the weakest teams in Group A playing the opener, with no giants appearing and no promotion suspense. Such a big sacrifice, must be weighed up, so what is being taken care of?
Take care of the host Qatar, haha.
With the opening match for the "uncrowned king" Netherlands and African champions Senegal, does Qatar have the slightest hope of winning? It's not surprising how much you lose. Qatar's 3 group stage winning the biggest hope match is Qatar vs Ecuador, even if you don't talk about the arrangement of the "host" style of winning, such a small goal as "score 1 goal and get 1 point" must be achieved by Qatar, otherwise everyone will swipe the card, and the cloth on the head has become a fig leaf.
So my understanding is that the group grouping and the arrangement of the match are to allow Ecuador, who "accidentally qualified for the World Cup", to overturn on the host, and the probability of this scenario appearing is +1. Host, it's reasonable to be willful.
summary
Most of my friends have had the experience of taking the college entrance examination, such as me, I set myself the goal of going to the second line during the college entrance examination; The goal I set for myself at the same table is to go to Tsinghua, or Peking University; My cousin set himself a goal of 188 points overall, because of Geely; Although none of us have been able to achieve our goals, we all have a bright future.
League first, cup entertainment, the league still has teams fighting for the championship, some teams are fighting for the fourth, some teams are fighting for relegation, naturally each participating team on this side of the cup has its own different goals, it is impossible for 32 teams to fight to win the World Cup.
I think that Ecuador can break through from the South American qualifiers to the World Cup this time, and to be able to come to Qatar to participate in the World Cup main tournament is already a championship-level performance, they are the heroes of their country, they have no regrets, just enjoy the World Cup.